Just before the season began, I picked against the win total lines. With the byes behind us, and all teams having played 9/16ths of their games, seems like a good time to evaluate which picks seem to be on track, and which teams I was way off on.
AFC North my predictions BAL (over 10), CIN (under 8), CLE (over 5.5), PIT (under 9)
Baltimore needs to go 5-2 down the stretch to hit the over, and looking at their schedule, it's within reach, but they could just as easily slip to 9-7, so nothing is written in stone.
Cincinnati was even crappier than I expected, so no problem with them hitting the under.
Cleveland needs to go at least 3-4 to beat the over, and with CAR, BUF, and CIN on the schedule, should be possible, especially with how well Colt McCoy has looked.
Pittsburgh surprised me so far, they survived their time without #7, but with their makeshift offensive line, and a few tough road games left, their high side potential is probably around 10 wins, and it wouldn't be shocking if they slip to 8-8 by going 2-5 down the stretch, so I'm still hopeful that my picks are solid for this division
AFC South my predictions HOU (over 8), IND (over 11), JAX (under 7), TEN (over 8)
Houston sucks, they'll probably finish a disappointing 7-9 or 8-8.
Indy has been solid at home, but a bit shaky on the road, and would need to go 6-1 the rest of the way to have over 11 wins, not likely at this point.
Jacksonville already has 5 wins, so they'll probably get at least 2 more wins.
Tennessee has some solid wins, and confounding losses. They should go at least 4-3, but much better, or worse is possible.
AFC East my predictions BUF (under 5), MIA (over 8.5), NE (under 9.5), NYJ (under 9.5)
Buffalo has played well, yet they've only won one game, so feel pretty confident about them staying under 5 wins.
Miami has 5 wins so far, and with some easy games outside of their division 4 more wins are within their grasp, but they could also screw things up.
New England has done their smoke and mirrors thing and are tied for best record. On paper should have been a down year, but they do what they do. Damn, Belichick.
New York Jets season still might blow up, and all those close wins they've squeaked out for the first half, might become close losses down the stretch, still they'll probably make the over, and my picks for this whole division will probably be wrong.
AFC West my predictions DEN (under 7.5) KC (over 6.5) OAK (over 6.0) SD (under 11)
Denver looks to be the bottom dwellers of this crappy division, so the under feels pretty solid.
KC started well, but after two road losses within their division, they look a bit shaky, but will get at least two wins, so the over looks good.
Oakland might be pretty good this season, and should get at least two more victories.
San Diego seems to be doing their usual start slow, finish strong thing. They're putting up great stats, but have a mediocre record. They'd have to go 6-1 to hit the over, not impossible, but not probable, so I feel good about my pick.
The playoff picture is still pretty muddled in the AFC, Indy, Baltimore, NYJ and NE seem like locks, San Diego will probably rise up and sneak off with their division again, unless Oakland figures out how to win on the road and gets to 10-6. Pittsburgh or Miami will probably be fighting for the last wildcard spot. If I had to pick right now based on how the teams look at this moment, I think the division winners will be BAL, IND, NE, SD with NYJ and MIA getting the wildcard spots. It's going to be crazy down the stretch with a gazillion tiebreaker scenarios being the difference between division wins and being completely out of the playoffs for a few quality teams. 11-5 might be the best record, and 10-6 the worst that make it into the playoffs.
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
18 November 2010
05 January 2010
Oh Crap, NFL in Los Angeles Might Really Happen, and Soon...
I'd guess the Jaguars are the prime candidate, with the Rams joining them a year or two later so that the LA Stadium would have an AFC-NFC pair of tennants the way the do things in Meadowlands.
Hopefully Los Jaguares will swap divisions with the KC Chiefs, or they'll be racking up those frequent flyer miles playing in the AFC South. No such problem for the Rams, though, despite being in St. Louis for 16 years, they never left the NFC West.
11 October 2008
Just For the Record . . .
Since it seems that SAT scores from the 80s are suddenly relevant to whether or not a person is qualified for the Presidency or Vice Presidency, and given that I'm contemplating a go at the GOP nomination in 2016, I guess I should reveal my score when I took the SAT way back in OCT of '86.
Verbal 680
Math 690
I am teh smart!
(and even though many on the left want this to be real, Palin's scores are fake, and easily proven so, sort of like a particular set of TANG documents that played a role in 2004, brought down Dan Rather, and helped birth Pajamas Media)
(dug around to see if I could find the actual score sheet, didn't turn up, but did find a bet slip from August 13, 1990 where I confidently laid $20 to win $400 on the Detroit Lions winning the NFC Championship, what was I thinking?)
(checking the Wiki, that bet wasn't that bad, they won their one and only playoff game since their 1957 championship season by beating the Cowboys and made it to the NFC Championship Game, but lost to the eventual Superbowl Champion Redskins)
(also, what the hell was I doing at Imperial Palace on a Monday morning?)
(ahhh, I remember now, celebrating my 21st birthday a few months late, no comment beyond that, this is a family blog . . .)
(speaking of the phrase, "I am teh smart", look what blog shows up number two on Google currently . . .)
Verbal 680
Math 690
I am teh smart!
(and even though many on the left want this to be real, Palin's scores are fake, and easily proven so, sort of like a particular set of TANG documents that played a role in 2004, brought down Dan Rather, and helped birth Pajamas Media)
(dug around to see if I could find the actual score sheet, didn't turn up, but did find a bet slip from August 13, 1990 where I confidently laid $20 to win $400 on the Detroit Lions winning the NFC Championship, what was I thinking?)
(checking the Wiki, that bet wasn't that bad, they won their one and only playoff game since their 1957 championship season by beating the Cowboys and made it to the NFC Championship Game, but lost to the eventual Superbowl Champion Redskins)
(also, what the hell was I doing at Imperial Palace on a Monday morning?)
(ahhh, I remember now, celebrating my 21st birthday a few months late, no comment beyond that, this is a family blog . . .)
(speaking of the phrase, "I am teh smart", look what blog shows up number two on Google currently . . .)
07 September 2008
Weekly NFL Related Humiliation, Week 01, The Picks
Another NFL season descends. Another chance to humiliate myself with bad prognostications. I'm not bothering with the Bill Simmons comparisons, this week, let's see how badly he does in the first week before making a decision if it's worth my time.
I skipped Thursday, because football seasons aren't supposed to start on Thursdays, plus I'm limiting myself to five games a week to pick against the spread, so I'm concentrating on the four games being televised in Los Angeles on Sunday, and one of the Monday Night games.
New York Jets (4-12 in 2007) at Miami +4.0 (1-15 in 2007), My pick NYJ -4.0
Two teams that combined for 5 wins in 2007, and this is the best AFC match-up that CBS could muster? Oh, right, that fella who was in that Mary movie Bret something will be in this, and that guy who sells tuna fish when not coaching is nowcoachinggeneral managing again. The Bret somethings will beat the Mahi Mahis, but not cause of that Bret feller, he'll mostly suck, but the Jets defense will play well, and Chad Pennington will be Chad Pennington (and CBS, this is really going to be a better game to watch than JAX at TEN?)
Tampa Bay (9-7 in 2007) at New Orleans -3.5 (7-9 in 2007), My pick NO -3.5
I think everything should come together for the Saints this year, after slipping back into mediocrity in 2007 after a breakout year in 2006. Tampa Bay will be consistently good, but this week, they won't be good enough to contain the offensive firepower of the Saints, and the Saints defense will do enough to keep this from getting too close.
Dallas (13-3 in 2007) at Cleveland +5.5 (10-6 in 2007), My pick DAL -5.5
Dallas are pretty big favorites on the road against a solid Cleveland squad. After a few off season tweaks here and there, I don't know that Dallas will be at full strength in this opening game, but I think they can still manage to beat the Browns in Cleveland by at least a TD. Might end up being a yawner, or the Browns could keep it close for 3 quarters before fading in the 4th. Beats watching tennis (or it would if the tennis wasn't being postponed, oops, double checked, looks like there will be some tennis on with the completion of the Nadal-Murry semi and given that Murray has one the first two sets, it might be interesting to see if he can complete the upset, the score stands at Nadal 3, Murray 2 in the 3rd set, but then again, nahhh, men's tennis became pretty boring once they switched away from wooden rackets, no rallys, just big serves and big returns of serve, except in rare cases like that Wimbledon final between Nadal and Federer a few months ago, when did this become Tennis Chat?).
Chicago (7-9 in 2007) at Indianapolis -8.0 (13-3 in 2007), My pick Chicago +8.0
I still think Indy will win this game, but I don't think it will be by more than a TD. The Colts offense is very effecient, but the Bears defense is nearly equal in their capacity for being disruptive. I think this game is more evenly matched than it appears at first glance. Should be low scoring, but Indy will gut out a close win, which means I'm picking Chicago against the spread.
Minnesota (8-8 in 2007) at Green Bay Even (13-3 in 2007), My pick Minnesota Even
I'm a bit surprised this is a pick 'em game. Had Favre come back, I suspect that the home team would be at least a field goal favorite. I think the turmoil of the off season will catch up with The Packers in this game, and Minnesota ought to be able to sneak off the hostile field with a victory. Or the opposite could happen, and the team will rally around the new guy, and trounce the invading horde of Vikings. But, I'm thinking the former is more likely than the latter, so I'm sticking with going with the Vikes. I do think Green Bay will be shaky to start the season, and become a bit more consistent later.
I skipped Thursday, because football seasons aren't supposed to start on Thursdays, plus I'm limiting myself to five games a week to pick against the spread, so I'm concentrating on the four games being televised in Los Angeles on Sunday, and one of the Monday Night games.
New York Jets (4-12 in 2007) at Miami +4.0 (1-15 in 2007), My pick NYJ -4.0
Two teams that combined for 5 wins in 2007, and this is the best AFC match-up that CBS could muster? Oh, right, that fella who was in that Mary movie Bret something will be in this, and that guy who sells tuna fish when not coaching is now
Tampa Bay (9-7 in 2007) at New Orleans -3.5 (7-9 in 2007), My pick NO -3.5
I think everything should come together for the Saints this year, after slipping back into mediocrity in 2007 after a breakout year in 2006. Tampa Bay will be consistently good, but this week, they won't be good enough to contain the offensive firepower of the Saints, and the Saints defense will do enough to keep this from getting too close.
Dallas (13-3 in 2007) at Cleveland +5.5 (10-6 in 2007), My pick DAL -5.5
Dallas are pretty big favorites on the road against a solid Cleveland squad. After a few off season tweaks here and there, I don't know that Dallas will be at full strength in this opening game, but I think they can still manage to beat the Browns in Cleveland by at least a TD. Might end up being a yawner, or the Browns could keep it close for 3 quarters before fading in the 4th. Beats watching tennis (or it would if the tennis wasn't being postponed, oops, double checked, looks like there will be some tennis on with the completion of the Nadal-Murry semi and given that Murray has one the first two sets, it might be interesting to see if he can complete the upset, the score stands at Nadal 3, Murray 2 in the 3rd set, but then again, nahhh, men's tennis became pretty boring once they switched away from wooden rackets, no rallys, just big serves and big returns of serve, except in rare cases like that Wimbledon final between Nadal and Federer a few months ago, when did this become Tennis Chat?).
Chicago (7-9 in 2007) at Indianapolis -8.0 (13-3 in 2007), My pick Chicago +8.0
I still think Indy will win this game, but I don't think it will be by more than a TD. The Colts offense is very effecient, but the Bears defense is nearly equal in their capacity for being disruptive. I think this game is more evenly matched than it appears at first glance. Should be low scoring, but Indy will gut out a close win, which means I'm picking Chicago against the spread.
Minnesota (8-8 in 2007) at Green Bay Even (13-3 in 2007), My pick Minnesota Even
I'm a bit surprised this is a pick 'em game. Had Favre come back, I suspect that the home team would be at least a field goal favorite. I think the turmoil of the off season will catch up with The Packers in this game, and Minnesota ought to be able to sneak off the hostile field with a victory. Or the opposite could happen, and the team will rally around the new guy, and trounce the invading horde of Vikings. But, I'm thinking the former is more likely than the latter, so I'm sticking with going with the Vikes. I do think Green Bay will be shaky to start the season, and become a bit more consistent later.
19 January 2008
NFL Picks: Conference Finals
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-14.0) O/U 47
How could the Pats lose? Short answer, they can't. Everything is against the Chargers in this one, they're coached by Norv Turner, LT and Gates aren't healthy, Rivers probably won't play, and they are a warm weather team on the road playing in what's predicted to be frigid conditions. No upset in the making here, but scoring might be surpressed because of the weather, so this could end up a 24-3 game. Even the Pats might have some trouble scoring in the expected conditions, plus the SD defense has been played well most of this season, but they are predictable, and weak against slot receivers, which means Welker will go wild, even as Moss is contained. So my picks, New England -14.0, and Under.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) O/U 41
If the conditions in the earlier New England game can be described as frigid, what can you call this game? Inhuman. 20 below zero when wind chill is factored in, that's insane. Bring on global warming, is all I can say. I don't see either offense operating at maximum effeciency in this game, but Favre has a lot more experience dealing with this insanity than Eli Manning, and that will make all the difference. Low scoring, possibly a shutout, I expect a 13-0 game here. So my picks, Green Bay -7.5, and Under.
And My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ has his picks, plus an epic lengthed mailbag.
How could the Pats lose? Short answer, they can't. Everything is against the Chargers in this one, they're coached by Norv Turner, LT and Gates aren't healthy, Rivers probably won't play, and they are a warm weather team on the road playing in what's predicted to be frigid conditions. No upset in the making here, but scoring might be surpressed because of the weather, so this could end up a 24-3 game. Even the Pats might have some trouble scoring in the expected conditions, plus the SD defense has been played well most of this season, but they are predictable, and weak against slot receivers, which means Welker will go wild, even as Moss is contained. So my picks, New England -14.0, and Under.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) O/U 41
If the conditions in the earlier New England game can be described as frigid, what can you call this game? Inhuman. 20 below zero when wind chill is factored in, that's insane. Bring on global warming, is all I can say. I don't see either offense operating at maximum effeciency in this game, but Favre has a lot more experience dealing with this insanity than Eli Manning, and that will make all the difference. Low scoring, possibly a shutout, I expect a 13-0 game here. So my picks, Green Bay -7.5, and Under.
And My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ has his picks, plus an epic lengthed mailbag.
20 December 2007
Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week Sixteen)
It's getting towards the end of the season. The AFC is pretty much wrapped up, 7 of the 8 division titles are decided, but there are still plenty of teams fighting for the remaining wildcard spots in the NFC, so there will be plenty of games that count for at least one of the teams.
To break form these last two weeks, I'll scour the entire schedule and hazard a guess on each contest.
I completely forgot to pick on My Nemesis Bill Simmons™. He hasn't had a good season picking picks, his wife, who doesn't follow the game, is kicking his ass (to be fair, she kicked my ass this season as well). That would seem to give credit to Bill at So Quoted's (see comments to this very post) theory regarding the relative value of laboriously researched, meticulously reasoned picks by folks who seem to think they understand a thing or two about the chances of one team versus another (against the spread), and flipping a coin.
In addition to his picks this week BS also offers an entertaining breakdown of the craptacular state of the QB position in the NFL at the moment. By his estimation (with which I agree), there are a grand total of 7 QBs who can win the game for you on a regular basis (as opposed to the occasional great game). Add to that 2 QBs who do a great job managing games, and that's it. Everyone else is as likely to cost your team the game as to win it. What explains this? The complicated defenses, and more frequent substitions, and it's a much more difficult position to play than it used to be. I think having the coaches in their head the entire game doesn't help either. The QB is the only player who gets to have a direct audio link to the coach, but rather than making it easier for them to run plays, it just takes away their creativity and ability to think for themselves. Coaches should just let their players make plays, but there's so much scrutiny now, the urge to micro-manage becomes overwhelming, and the QB position is the most managed position in the game. The likes of Fran Tarkenton, Ken Stabler and Terry Bradshaw probably wouldn't even be given half a chance or be half as good as they were. They developed their instinct for the game through playing, and failing, and calling most of their own plays. Some day, there may be a coach with the guts to cut off his mic, trust a young QB, and allow him to develop into the position. I think a JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young or Matt Leinart would thrive under the old system, and they still may thrive under the current system, but I'd bet they'd be a lot more fun to watch if they were allowed to think for themselves, gamble a bit, and fail from time to time.
Thursday's game
Pittsburgh(9-5) at St.Louis(3-11) Pittsburgh -7.5 BS Picks St.Louis
Pittsburgh has been lousy on the road this season, piling up losses against pretty lousy teams. But the Rams are lousy enough to lose by two TDs against this Steelers team, and given that the Steelers are still trying to hold off Cleveland and win their division, they should have plenty of motivation to not only win, but win big.
Saturday's game
Dallas(12-2) at Carolina(6-8) Carolina +10.5 BS Picks Carolina
Carolina has had a bad season, and are 2-5 at home so far, while Dallas are perfect on the road, but they're coming off an anemic offensive performance against Philly, and their QB is damaged, but will still play. Romo will play, he'll play like crap, and Dallas will squeak by with a victory, but they won't cover a ten point spread in the process.
Sunday! Sunday! Sunday!
NY Giants(9-5) at Buffalo(7-7) Buffalo +3.0 BS Picks Buffalo
The Giants still have a solid defense, but their offense is truly offensive at the moment. They won't win another game this season. They'll lose this game, lose to New England next week, and if they still back into the playoffs at 9-7, will lose their first round game. It's going to be an unpleasant off-season for Eli Manning. Buffalo lost last week in terrible conditions in Cleveland, a game that pretty much ended their playoff hopes. They'll play better this week at home, and should have no trouble with a Giants team that's on the verge of total collapse.
Green Bay(12-2) at Chicago(5-9) Green Bay -8.5 BS Picks Chicago
Chicago pulled off the upset last time these two teams played, but I expect the Packers to play better this week and keep the pressure on Dallas for homefield advantage in the NFC. Not much more to say, Chicago's offense is phenomenally inept, their defense is still pretty solid, but given the frequency of '3 and outs' by their offense, are on the field for far too much time each game. The funny thing is they really aren't that much worse than the team that made it to the Superbowl last year, they just didn't get the breaks like they did last year. They are a few last minute drives from being 10-4 instead of 5-9 this season.
Cleveland(9-5) at Cincinnati(5-9) Cleveland -3.0 BS Picks Cleveland
Cleveland should win this, and keep the pressure on Pittsburgh for the AFC North division title, but stranger things have happened, and the Bengals are better than they've played this season. The Browns should win, but I wouldn't be too surprised if the Bengals put together a decent game for a change and screw up their division, and intra-state rival's shot at the playoffs.
Kansas City(4-10) at Detroit(6-8) Kansas City +5.0 BS Picks Detroit
Both teams are awful right now, but I think Detroit will extend their losing streak, while KC will manage to break theirs. Both teams had surprsingly strong starts, Detroit was 6-2 at one point, while KC was 4-3 with a share of the AFC West lead. I feel sorry for the people in the KC and Detroit area who will end up having this sorry excuse of a game being broadcast into their living rooms.
Houston(7-7) at Indianapolis(12-2) Houston +7.0 BS Picks Houston
Indianapolis should win, but they have nothing to play for, they have the #2 seed locked up, and can't catch New England for #1. Manning and Addai, and plenty of other key starters are probably not going to play much, so I expect Houston to win this game to keep their slim chance at the playoffs alive, or at least keep the final score close. Or they could still get blown out by the Colts second string.
Philadelphia(6-8) at New Orleans (7-7) New Orleans -3.0 BS Picks New Orleans
Both teams have been up and down, New Orleans still has a shot at the playoffs if Minnesota slides, so they should play their best this week, but they've come up short other times when they needed to win, so who knows what will happen this game. I'm going with the home team, and the team that needs to win, but Philly's defense might force Brees into a bunch of turnovers and the Eagles could win big.
Oakland(4-10) at Jacksonville(10-4) Jacksonville -13.0 BS Picks Jacksonville
On paper, this shouldn't even be close, and I think the paper's right in this case. The Raiders have a solid young defense, but the Jaguars will still roll all over them on offense, and Oakland's inept offense will cost this team any chance they may have had of pulling off an upset, or even covering the 2TD spread. Plus the league was kind enough to give JAX just a little extra motivation by snubbing the entire team with regards to the Pro Bowl. Should make it a lot easier for the coaching staff to get the players fired up against a lousy opponent, they aren't just playing the Raiders this week, they're playing against league wide perception.
Atlanta(3-11) at Arizona(6-8) Arizona -10.0 BS Picks Arizona
I just don't care. I really, really don't care. The Cardinals should be eyeing a playoff spot right now, but they lost both games to the 49ers this season (!!!), and despite having a good mix of young talent and veterans, will miss the playoffs another season. I really do think they could have snuck into the Superbowl this season had they not lost 3 of their last 4. Atlanta is Atlanta, and the less said the better. Message to Arthur Blank, I'll take the job, but only if you let me be GM and coach. I'd institute a modified run n' shoot offense, make some trades, and make Devin Hester your featured wing back. It'd be back to the 30s, and back to the playoffs for the Falcons.
Tampa Bay(9-5) at San Francisco(4-10) Tampa Bay -6.0 BS Picks Tampa Bay
A blowout in the making. Tampa Bay will win by more than 20 points. They've been good at thumping the bad teams they've faced this year, this week won't be any different.
NY Jets(3-11) at Tennessee(8-6) Tennessee -8.5 BS Picks NY Jets
You have the Titans fighting for a wildcard, and the NY Jets fighting for nothing at all. Even though the Titans have looked troubled lately, and have dropped 4 out of their last 6 games, they should be able to beat an awful Jets team by two TDs or more.
Miami(1-13) at New England(14-0) New England -22.0 BS Picks Miami
New England may be perfect in the WL column, but against the spread they are a less impressive 10-4. They're at home, they're playing a team that just eeked out their only victory of the season, and they're coming off of a less than satisfying victory over the NY Jets. I expect blood in this one. Their biggest margin of victory this season was 46 points, I expect them to get close to or exceed that number this week.
Baltimore(4-10) at Seattle(9-5) Seattle -10.5 BS Picks Baltimore
I just don't care. Baltimore should be out for blood after being the only team that Miami managed to beat, but then again, they managed to lose to Miami, and Seattle has been pretty solid of late (ignoring last week's loss to Carolina), so I expect Seattle to win, and how in the hell is Baltimore on the road against a 9-5 team a "pick 'em" game?!? UPDATE: I knew that line was wrong, 10.5 points is more like it, I still pick Seattle to cover.
Washington(7-7) at Minnesota(8-6) Washington +6.5 BS Picks Washington
This is the game of the week? No really, it is. This is the only contest where both teams are fighting for their playoff lives. If the Skins can win out, they should get that last wildcard, if the Vikings lose this one, then they'll still have a shot at advancing. Minnesota looked terrible last week, even while beating the Bears. They won't get so lucky this week against Washington. The Skins will watch the tape from last week to learn how to contain Peterson, and with Bollinger starting this week, they'll have no offensive output at all if Peterson is contained. Still, there's bound to be ten different things better to do with your Sunday night than to watch this game. NBC must be thrilled that this was the best they could schedule even with their 'flex schedule' deal with the NFL. Is it spelled "parity" or "parody"?
Christmas Eve
Denver(6-8) at San Diego(9-5) San Diego -8.5 BS Picks San Diego
San Diego beat Denver by 38 points last time they played in Denver. The outcome shouldn't be any better for the Broncos when these two teams meet in San Diego. Denver's only hope is that San Diego rests some starters, but even then, they should be able to win by better than 2 TDs against a solidly mediocre Broncos team.
To break form these last two weeks, I'll scour the entire schedule and hazard a guess on each contest.
*UPDATE* 2007 DEC 22nd 10:28pm PST *UPDATE*
I completely forgot to pick on My Nemesis Bill Simmons™. He hasn't had a good season picking picks, his wife, who doesn't follow the game, is kicking his ass (to be fair, she kicked my ass this season as well). That would seem to give credit to Bill at So Quoted's (see comments to this very post) theory regarding the relative value of laboriously researched, meticulously reasoned picks by folks who seem to think they understand a thing or two about the chances of one team versus another (against the spread), and flipping a coin.
In addition to his picks this week BS also offers an entertaining breakdown of the craptacular state of the QB position in the NFL at the moment. By his estimation (with which I agree), there are a grand total of 7 QBs who can win the game for you on a regular basis (as opposed to the occasional great game). Add to that 2 QBs who do a great job managing games, and that's it. Everyone else is as likely to cost your team the game as to win it. What explains this? The complicated defenses, and more frequent substitions, and it's a much more difficult position to play than it used to be. I think having the coaches in their head the entire game doesn't help either. The QB is the only player who gets to have a direct audio link to the coach, but rather than making it easier for them to run plays, it just takes away their creativity and ability to think for themselves. Coaches should just let their players make plays, but there's so much scrutiny now, the urge to micro-manage becomes overwhelming, and the QB position is the most managed position in the game. The likes of Fran Tarkenton, Ken Stabler and Terry Bradshaw probably wouldn't even be given half a chance or be half as good as they were. They developed their instinct for the game through playing, and failing, and calling most of their own plays. Some day, there may be a coach with the guts to cut off his mic, trust a young QB, and allow him to develop into the position. I think a JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young or Matt Leinart would thrive under the old system, and they still may thrive under the current system, but I'd bet they'd be a lot more fun to watch if they were allowed to think for themselves, gamble a bit, and fail from time to time.
Thursday's game
Pittsburgh(9-5) at St.Louis(3-11) Pittsburgh -7.5 BS Picks St.Louis
Pittsburgh has been lousy on the road this season, piling up losses against pretty lousy teams. But the Rams are lousy enough to lose by two TDs against this Steelers team, and given that the Steelers are still trying to hold off Cleveland and win their division, they should have plenty of motivation to not only win, but win big.
Saturday's game
Dallas(12-2) at Carolina(6-8) Carolina +10.5 BS Picks Carolina
Carolina has had a bad season, and are 2-5 at home so far, while Dallas are perfect on the road, but they're coming off an anemic offensive performance against Philly, and their QB is damaged, but will still play. Romo will play, he'll play like crap, and Dallas will squeak by with a victory, but they won't cover a ten point spread in the process.
Sunday! Sunday! Sunday!
NY Giants(9-5) at Buffalo(7-7) Buffalo +3.0 BS Picks Buffalo
The Giants still have a solid defense, but their offense is truly offensive at the moment. They won't win another game this season. They'll lose this game, lose to New England next week, and if they still back into the playoffs at 9-7, will lose their first round game. It's going to be an unpleasant off-season for Eli Manning. Buffalo lost last week in terrible conditions in Cleveland, a game that pretty much ended their playoff hopes. They'll play better this week at home, and should have no trouble with a Giants team that's on the verge of total collapse.
Green Bay(12-2) at Chicago(5-9) Green Bay -8.5 BS Picks Chicago
Chicago pulled off the upset last time these two teams played, but I expect the Packers to play better this week and keep the pressure on Dallas for homefield advantage in the NFC. Not much more to say, Chicago's offense is phenomenally inept, their defense is still pretty solid, but given the frequency of '3 and outs' by their offense, are on the field for far too much time each game. The funny thing is they really aren't that much worse than the team that made it to the Superbowl last year, they just didn't get the breaks like they did last year. They are a few last minute drives from being 10-4 instead of 5-9 this season.
Cleveland(9-5) at Cincinnati(5-9) Cleveland -3.0 BS Picks Cleveland
Cleveland should win this, and keep the pressure on Pittsburgh for the AFC North division title, but stranger things have happened, and the Bengals are better than they've played this season. The Browns should win, but I wouldn't be too surprised if the Bengals put together a decent game for a change and screw up their division, and intra-state rival's shot at the playoffs.
Kansas City(4-10) at Detroit(6-8) Kansas City +5.0 BS Picks Detroit
Both teams are awful right now, but I think Detroit will extend their losing streak, while KC will manage to break theirs. Both teams had surprsingly strong starts, Detroit was 6-2 at one point, while KC was 4-3 with a share of the AFC West lead. I feel sorry for the people in the KC and Detroit area who will end up having this sorry excuse of a game being broadcast into their living rooms.
Houston(7-7) at Indianapolis(12-2) Houston +7.0 BS Picks Houston
Indianapolis should win, but they have nothing to play for, they have the #2 seed locked up, and can't catch New England for #1. Manning and Addai, and plenty of other key starters are probably not going to play much, so I expect Houston to win this game to keep their slim chance at the playoffs alive, or at least keep the final score close. Or they could still get blown out by the Colts second string.
Philadelphia(6-8) at New Orleans (7-7) New Orleans -3.0 BS Picks New Orleans
Both teams have been up and down, New Orleans still has a shot at the playoffs if Minnesota slides, so they should play their best this week, but they've come up short other times when they needed to win, so who knows what will happen this game. I'm going with the home team, and the team that needs to win, but Philly's defense might force Brees into a bunch of turnovers and the Eagles could win big.
Oakland(4-10) at Jacksonville(10-4) Jacksonville -13.0 BS Picks Jacksonville
On paper, this shouldn't even be close, and I think the paper's right in this case. The Raiders have a solid young defense, but the Jaguars will still roll all over them on offense, and Oakland's inept offense will cost this team any chance they may have had of pulling off an upset, or even covering the 2TD spread. Plus the league was kind enough to give JAX just a little extra motivation by snubbing the entire team with regards to the Pro Bowl. Should make it a lot easier for the coaching staff to get the players fired up against a lousy opponent, they aren't just playing the Raiders this week, they're playing against league wide perception.
Atlanta(3-11) at Arizona(6-8) Arizona -10.0 BS Picks Arizona
I just don't care. I really, really don't care. The Cardinals should be eyeing a playoff spot right now, but they lost both games to the 49ers this season (!!!), and despite having a good mix of young talent and veterans, will miss the playoffs another season. I really do think they could have snuck into the Superbowl this season had they not lost 3 of their last 4. Atlanta is Atlanta, and the less said the better. Message to Arthur Blank, I'll take the job, but only if you let me be GM and coach. I'd institute a modified run n' shoot offense, make some trades, and make Devin Hester your featured wing back. It'd be back to the 30s, and back to the playoffs for the Falcons.
Tampa Bay(9-5) at San Francisco(4-10) Tampa Bay -6.0 BS Picks Tampa Bay
A blowout in the making. Tampa Bay will win by more than 20 points. They've been good at thumping the bad teams they've faced this year, this week won't be any different.
NY Jets(3-11) at Tennessee(8-6) Tennessee -8.5 BS Picks NY Jets
You have the Titans fighting for a wildcard, and the NY Jets fighting for nothing at all. Even though the Titans have looked troubled lately, and have dropped 4 out of their last 6 games, they should be able to beat an awful Jets team by two TDs or more.
Miami(1-13) at New England(14-0) New England -22.0 BS Picks Miami
New England may be perfect in the WL column, but against the spread they are a less impressive 10-4. They're at home, they're playing a team that just eeked out their only victory of the season, and they're coming off of a less than satisfying victory over the NY Jets. I expect blood in this one. Their biggest margin of victory this season was 46 points, I expect them to get close to or exceed that number this week.
Baltimore(4-10) at Seattle(9-5) Seattle -10.5 BS Picks Baltimore
I just don't care. Baltimore should be out for blood after being the only team that Miami managed to beat, but then again, they managed to lose to Miami, and Seattle has been pretty solid of late (ignoring last week's loss to Carolina), so I expect Seattle to win, and how in the hell is Baltimore on the road against a 9-5 team a "pick 'em" game?!? UPDATE: I knew that line was wrong, 10.5 points is more like it, I still pick Seattle to cover.
Washington(7-7) at Minnesota(8-6) Washington +6.5 BS Picks Washington
This is the game of the week? No really, it is. This is the only contest where both teams are fighting for their playoff lives. If the Skins can win out, they should get that last wildcard, if the Vikings lose this one, then they'll still have a shot at advancing. Minnesota looked terrible last week, even while beating the Bears. They won't get so lucky this week against Washington. The Skins will watch the tape from last week to learn how to contain Peterson, and with Bollinger starting this week, they'll have no offensive output at all if Peterson is contained. Still, there's bound to be ten different things better to do with your Sunday night than to watch this game. NBC must be thrilled that this was the best they could schedule even with their 'flex schedule' deal with the NFL. Is it spelled "parity" or "parody"?
Christmas Eve
Denver(6-8) at San Diego(9-5) San Diego -8.5 BS Picks San Diego
San Diego beat Denver by 38 points last time they played in Denver. The outcome shouldn't be any better for the Broncos when these two teams meet in San Diego. Denver's only hope is that San Diego rests some starters, but even then, they should be able to win by better than 2 TDs against a solidly mediocre Broncos team.
18 December 2007
The Humiliation Returns . . .
Tomorrow, I'll put together some NFL picks, the past few weeks have been pretty awful as far as games worth watching, last week only two games pitted two teams with winning records. If you had looked at the Week 15 match-ups before week one, you probably would have guessed that both teams in the Jacksonville at Pittsburgh game would have winning records, but if you say that you would have also guessed the only other both teams over .500 game would be Buffalo at Cleveland, then I call you a stinking liar.
So I'll be daring and pick all the games, from Thursday to Monday, no matter how unwatchable any particular game may be (woohoo! 14-0 New England v 1-13 Miami, that's a classic in the making, right there), then I'll give my picks throughout the playoffs, of course.
Looks like my earlier playoff predictions are already way off. I was pretty close on the AFC, though I didn't predict continued success for Cleveland and a Pittsburgh mini-collapse. Cleveland and Pittsburgh both have winnable games the last two weeks, so they should both finish 11-5, which would mean Pittsburgh wins the division, and Cleveland earns one of the wildcard slots, along with Jacksonville, leaving Tennessee out of the playoffs. New England and Indianapolis have already locked up the first round byes.
On the NFC side, Green Bay and Dallas both will earn the byes, with Dallas probably still holding on to the overall home field advantage. Tampa Bay did rise to the top of the NFC South (no real surprise), Seattle has looked very solid again, and Arizona let a golden opportunity to make the playoffs slip away with a few late losses. Detroit were 6-2 at one point and look poised to finish 6-10, while the NY Giants may still hold on to the last wildcard, but they'll get thumped in the first round of the playoffs, so it won't matter. As far as who the other playoff team, who knew Minnesota would rise to the top of that mess? They were 3-6 when I wrote that post, and their season was done, now they are 8-6 with their own destiny in their hands. New Orleans still may knock the Giants out, and Minnesota looked shaky on Monday, even though they beat the Bears, so they could still finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. They've been getting some Pittsburgh of '05 comparisons as the hot team that sneaks into the playoffs by winning a bunch of games late in the season, then doing damage as a 6 seed, but Tavaris Jackson is no Ben Roethlisberger. Adrian Peterson is a hell of a running back, but Seattle or Tampa Bay both have the kind of defense that can keep him bottled up, so I don't expect them to go on an unexpected playoff run.
It still looks like it's probably going to come down to a New England-Dallas rematch (with the same result as the regular season contest), assuming Romo's thumb isn't too seriously damaged, if his thumb is messed up, then look for a New England-Green Bay contest with Favre winning the Superbowl MVP even as New England wins the game.
Maybe if San Diego puts everything together for one magical game, they have the talent to thwart New England, but expecting a Norv Turner team to out-prepare and out-hustle, and out-execute a Bill Belichick team in a playoff game, strains credulity.
So I'll be daring and pick all the games, from Thursday to Monday, no matter how unwatchable any particular game may be (woohoo! 14-0 New England v 1-13 Miami, that's a classic in the making, right there), then I'll give my picks throughout the playoffs, of course.
Looks like my earlier playoff predictions are already way off. I was pretty close on the AFC, though I didn't predict continued success for Cleveland and a Pittsburgh mini-collapse. Cleveland and Pittsburgh both have winnable games the last two weeks, so they should both finish 11-5, which would mean Pittsburgh wins the division, and Cleveland earns one of the wildcard slots, along with Jacksonville, leaving Tennessee out of the playoffs. New England and Indianapolis have already locked up the first round byes.
On the NFC side, Green Bay and Dallas both will earn the byes, with Dallas probably still holding on to the overall home field advantage. Tampa Bay did rise to the top of the NFC South (no real surprise), Seattle has looked very solid again, and Arizona let a golden opportunity to make the playoffs slip away with a few late losses. Detroit were 6-2 at one point and look poised to finish 6-10, while the NY Giants may still hold on to the last wildcard, but they'll get thumped in the first round of the playoffs, so it won't matter. As far as who the other playoff team, who knew Minnesota would rise to the top of that mess? They were 3-6 when I wrote that post, and their season was done, now they are 8-6 with their own destiny in their hands. New Orleans still may knock the Giants out, and Minnesota looked shaky on Monday, even though they beat the Bears, so they could still finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. They've been getting some Pittsburgh of '05 comparisons as the hot team that sneaks into the playoffs by winning a bunch of games late in the season, then doing damage as a 6 seed, but Tavaris Jackson is no Ben Roethlisberger. Adrian Peterson is a hell of a running back, but Seattle or Tampa Bay both have the kind of defense that can keep him bottled up, so I don't expect them to go on an unexpected playoff run.
It still looks like it's probably going to come down to a New England-Dallas rematch (with the same result as the regular season contest), assuming Romo's thumb isn't too seriously damaged, if his thumb is messed up, then look for a New England-Green Bay contest with Favre winning the Superbowl MVP even as New England wins the game.
Maybe if San Diego puts everything together for one magical game, they have the talent to thwart New England, but expecting a Norv Turner team to out-prepare and out-hustle, and out-execute a Bill Belichick team in a playoff game, strains credulity.
16 November 2007
Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week ELEVEN)
Lucky week eleven, this time I'll be 5-0 for sure. Here's the link for the picks of My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ for comparison. As always, these picks are for entertainment purposes only. I don't usually pick nothing but favorites, but I don't see any upsets possible in these five games, so these are my picks and I'm sticking to them. Not going to bother with descriptions for each pick, you have 3 probable blowouts, plus two 17-10 games with San Diego v. Jacksonville and Tennessee v. Denver. I expect those games to be about as fun to watch as whatever colorful metaphor is your favorite to use in cases where you sarcastically mention something that's obviously not fun to watch at all to express an utter lack of enthusiasm for watching a particular game. It's a good week to go see a movie, Beowulf in 3D looks like it might be interesting, and the Coen Bros. movie is opening wider, so don't watch football this weekend, hit your favorite multiplex instead.
Carolina(4-5) at Green Bay(8-1) I pick Green Bay -9.5 BS Picks GB
San Diego(5-4) at Jacksonville(6-3) I pick Jacksonville -3.0 BS Picks Jax
Washington(5-4) at Dallas(8-1) I pick Dallas -10.5 BS Picks Dal
New England(9-0) at Buffalo(5-4) I pick New England -10.0 BS Picks NE
Tennessee(6-3) at Denver(4-5) I pick Tennessee -2.0 BS Picks Den
Carolina(4-5) at Green Bay(8-1) I pick Green Bay -9.5 BS Picks GB
San Diego(5-4) at Jacksonville(6-3) I pick Jacksonville -3.0 BS Picks Jax
Washington(5-4) at Dallas(8-1) I pick Dallas -10.5 BS Picks Dal
New England(9-0) at Buffalo(5-4) I pick New England -10.0 BS Picks NE
Tennessee(6-3) at Denver(4-5) I pick Tennessee -2.0 BS Picks Den
RESULTS Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week TEN)
That was a shockingly unhumiliating week of picking football. 4-1, woohoo!!! Better yet, since I picked exactly opposite My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ that means he was a miserable 1-4. Having a freshly hatched infant in the house must rattle the brains. Season totals so far, I sit at 23-24-3 while BS has slipped to a woeful 20-27-3.
As far as the games not covered in the five picks, 'where's the feet?' with regards to New Orleans? Just when I thought they were back on track they are handled easily by the previously winless St. Louis Rams. I still think the Saints will win their division, their schedule is pretty favorable the rest of the way out, and maybe this one bad game will help them sort things out the rest of the season. If they slip, and Tampa Bay slips, and Carolina continues to be mediocre (and how can you be better than mediocre when Vinny Testaverde is your QB?), then the Atlanta Falcons still have a chance to win that division?!? The NFC but for two teams, really, really sucks.
On to the semi-recaps:
Cleveland 28 Pittsburgh 31 (I picked Pitt -10.0) BS Picked Cle
D'oh! My only bad pick of the day, and it would have been a push if Pittsburgh hadn't given up that 4th quarter Kick Off return for a TD. Special teams defense has been a problem league wide this year. Makes the game more exciting, but I don't believe it's just that every team has decided to keep a Hester-like speedy small guy on their team that has accounted for the unprecedented success at KO and Punt returns this season, I think the defenses also kind of suck. As far as the rest of the game, Pittsburgh never seemed in doubt as to whether or not they would come back in this one. They looked sharp, and Cleveland is a pretty good team themselves. Seeing Big Ben rumble 30 yards for his TD was also pretty impressive, that was pretty unexpected. Pittsburgh actually dominated the game for the most part, just that they kept getting stalled in the red zone on offense. When your offense is playing well, you can't settle for field goals, I think it was more a matter of bad Steeler play calling in the first half rather than a really stiff Browns red zone defense. But even though they didn't cover the spread, they won, and that's all that matters (except where my pick was concerned, those bastards!)
Minnesota 0 Green Bay 34 (I picked GB -5.5) BS picked Minn
Woohoo! Not much to say on this one. Losing Peterson is a big blow to Minnesota, but they're hoping he's only out a short while. This loss effectively ends the Vikings playoff hopes, though, so they'd be foolish to rush back their franchise RB. Let him get healthy and don't jeopardize next season to struggle to 6-10 or 7-9 this one. Green Bay dominated this game on both sides of the ball. They have one of the best defenses in the league, and suddenly they have the semblance of a running attack to compliment Favre's passing. They'll keep the pressure on Dallas for the best record in the NFC the rest of the season, and you know Dallas doesn't want a possible NFC Championship game to be held on Lambeau Field in late January, that would bring back some bad memories from way back in the day. Hopefully that there Global Warming will kick in and game time temps will be above zero (assuming they meet in an NFC Championship game hosted in GB, which given my earlier predictions, I'm guessing won't happen).
Dallas 31 NYGiants 20 (I picked Dallas -1.5) BS picked NYG
Woohoo! The final score is closer than it should have been. Dallas dominated, but committed too many penalties in the first half, and would up tied 17-17 at halftime. They beat up their division rivals, and the NY Giants look on schedule to sputter in the final half of the season to either just grab the final wildcard spot, or to just miss the playoffs this year. Won't matter, though, as they'll be easy first round fodder for whichever team they face (assuming they make the playoffs, with given how bad the rest of the NFC is, should still be doable). Dallas is a very good team. I think Green Bay is slightly better, but they're both pretty close. Dallas has the more complete offense, but Green Bay has the better defense. Given their dismantling at the hands of New England earlier in the season, though, it's clear that Dallas would only be the 4th or 5th best team in the AFC.
Indianapolis 21 San Diego 23 (I picked SD +3.5) BS Picked Indy
Woohoo! After dominating the first half, causing turn over after turn over (Manning ended up throwing 6 picks in the game, that's unheard of for him), scoring off the opening kick-off, and a punt return within the first 7 minutes of the game, the Chargers still had to rely on two missed field goals by the normally automatic Adam Vinatieri to eek out this victory. There's something seriously wrong with that team. I still think they'll rise above the mess that is the AFC West and win their division, but they'll look as ugly as Norv Turner's face while doing it. Indy has suffered two tough losses in a row now, but they ought to get better fast with KC coming to town. Losing Freeney for the season is a crippling blow, though, and puts Pittsburgh on the inside track to be the 2 seed in the AFC and the team most likely to lose by at least 3 TDs in Foxboro come January in the AFC Championship game.
San Francisco 0 Seattle 24 (I picked Seattle -9.5) BS Picked SF
Woohoo! Meh, I said this would be unwatchable, and judging from the recap, it was. I don't care about either of these teams, and don't think either of them are going anywhere, other than SF has a chance of handing the already loaded Pats the #1 pick in next year's draft. Way to go 49ers!
As far as the games not covered in the five picks, 'where's the feet?' with regards to New Orleans? Just when I thought they were back on track they are handled easily by the previously winless St. Louis Rams. I still think the Saints will win their division, their schedule is pretty favorable the rest of the way out, and maybe this one bad game will help them sort things out the rest of the season. If they slip, and Tampa Bay slips, and Carolina continues to be mediocre (and how can you be better than mediocre when Vinny Testaverde is your QB?), then the Atlanta Falcons still have a chance to win that division?!? The NFC but for two teams, really, really sucks.
On to the semi-recaps:
Cleveland 28 Pittsburgh 31 (I picked Pitt -10.0) BS Picked Cle
D'oh! My only bad pick of the day, and it would have been a push if Pittsburgh hadn't given up that 4th quarter Kick Off return for a TD. Special teams defense has been a problem league wide this year. Makes the game more exciting, but I don't believe it's just that every team has decided to keep a Hester-like speedy small guy on their team that has accounted for the unprecedented success at KO and Punt returns this season, I think the defenses also kind of suck. As far as the rest of the game, Pittsburgh never seemed in doubt as to whether or not they would come back in this one. They looked sharp, and Cleveland is a pretty good team themselves. Seeing Big Ben rumble 30 yards for his TD was also pretty impressive, that was pretty unexpected. Pittsburgh actually dominated the game for the most part, just that they kept getting stalled in the red zone on offense. When your offense is playing well, you can't settle for field goals, I think it was more a matter of bad Steeler play calling in the first half rather than a really stiff Browns red zone defense. But even though they didn't cover the spread, they won, and that's all that matters (except where my pick was concerned, those bastards!)
Minnesota 0 Green Bay 34 (I picked GB -5.5) BS picked Minn
Woohoo! Not much to say on this one. Losing Peterson is a big blow to Minnesota, but they're hoping he's only out a short while. This loss effectively ends the Vikings playoff hopes, though, so they'd be foolish to rush back their franchise RB. Let him get healthy and don't jeopardize next season to struggle to 6-10 or 7-9 this one. Green Bay dominated this game on both sides of the ball. They have one of the best defenses in the league, and suddenly they have the semblance of a running attack to compliment Favre's passing. They'll keep the pressure on Dallas for the best record in the NFC the rest of the season, and you know Dallas doesn't want a possible NFC Championship game to be held on Lambeau Field in late January, that would bring back some bad memories from way back in the day. Hopefully that there Global Warming will kick in and game time temps will be above zero (assuming they meet in an NFC Championship game hosted in GB, which given my earlier predictions, I'm guessing won't happen).
Dallas 31 NYGiants 20 (I picked Dallas -1.5) BS picked NYG
Woohoo! The final score is closer than it should have been. Dallas dominated, but committed too many penalties in the first half, and would up tied 17-17 at halftime. They beat up their division rivals, and the NY Giants look on schedule to sputter in the final half of the season to either just grab the final wildcard spot, or to just miss the playoffs this year. Won't matter, though, as they'll be easy first round fodder for whichever team they face (assuming they make the playoffs, with given how bad the rest of the NFC is, should still be doable). Dallas is a very good team. I think Green Bay is slightly better, but they're both pretty close. Dallas has the more complete offense, but Green Bay has the better defense. Given their dismantling at the hands of New England earlier in the season, though, it's clear that Dallas would only be the 4th or 5th best team in the AFC.
Indianapolis 21 San Diego 23 (I picked SD +3.5) BS Picked Indy
Woohoo! After dominating the first half, causing turn over after turn over (Manning ended up throwing 6 picks in the game, that's unheard of for him), scoring off the opening kick-off, and a punt return within the first 7 minutes of the game, the Chargers still had to rely on two missed field goals by the normally automatic Adam Vinatieri to eek out this victory. There's something seriously wrong with that team. I still think they'll rise above the mess that is the AFC West and win their division, but they'll look as ugly as Norv Turner's face while doing it. Indy has suffered two tough losses in a row now, but they ought to get better fast with KC coming to town. Losing Freeney for the season is a crippling blow, though, and puts Pittsburgh on the inside track to be the 2 seed in the AFC and the team most likely to lose by at least 3 TDs in Foxboro come January in the AFC Championship game.
San Francisco 0 Seattle 24 (I picked Seattle -9.5) BS Picked SF
Woohoo! Meh, I said this would be unwatchable, and judging from the recap, it was. I don't care about either of these teams, and don't think either of them are going anywhere, other than SF has a chance of handing the already loaded Pats the #1 pick in next year's draft. Way to go 49ers!
12 November 2007
Let's Talk Playoffs (NFL Edition)
Week 10 has passed, and the playoffs are starting to come into focus in the NFL. Every team has played 9 games, there are no more bye weeks, and some of the division races are already over.
In the AFC, it's pretty easy to figure out who 5 of the 6 playoff teams will be, with the remaining playoff spot to go to whichever AFC West team manages to blow the fewest games the rest of the season.
New England and Pittsburgh are locks to win their divisions, while the AFC South is a three way battle between Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. All three of those teams should make the playoffs, and I think San Diego should still emerge from the pile of mediocre teams in the AFC West and win their division, or Norv Turner could do what Norv Turner does best and through horrendous play calling manage to get this talented team to miss the playoffs all together. In that scenario, then Denver is more likely to emerge as the winner of that crappy division over Kansas City. What remains is the battle for playoff seeding, with New England a sure thing as the 1 seed, and Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and maybe even Jacksonville fighting it out for the other team to get a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
None if it matters, though, it will come down to New England hosting whichever AFC team survives to the end to meet them in the AFC Championship game, and barring injuries will crush them.
The NFC is largely irrelevant, but more intriguing as more teams have a real shot at making the playoffs. The NFC is irrelevant, cause unless the Superbowl ends up being a fluky game, New England will crush any opposition in front of it, and more intriguing cause any one of 9 teams has a real shot at representing the NFC in the Superbowl (though, Dallas and Green Bay have to be considered strong favorites).
Dallas and Green Bay are in, and will win their divisions easily, but each will press the other to go for best record to host a potential NFC Championship game match up between the two. The other two divisions are up in the air, with Tampa Bay looking like the best of a bad bunch of NFC South teams, and either Seattle or Arizona emerging from the craptacular NFC West. Detroit and NY Giants have the inside track on the wildcard, but both teams are capable of collapsing the rest of the season, and the likes of Carolina, New Orleans, Chicago, Philadelphia, could all finish in a 5 way tie at 9-7 or 8-8 for the two wild card spots. Should make the last two weeks of the season a headache with regards to tie breaking scenarios.
It's possible with Dallas and Green Bay coasting at the end of the regualr season, and the other teams all struggling to make the playoffs, that the struggle will help focus those teams come the 2nd week of the playoffs, whereas a rusty Dallas and Green Bay could get upset at home when they host the survivors. It's not entirely inconceivable to imagine that Arizona could end up being the first team to play in a Superbowl in their home stadium (that scenario remains highly unlikely, but if Warner stays healthy somehow, and their defense continues to play well, they are as good as any other team in the NFC).
It would be a good story, Kurt Warner leading an Arizona team to an improbable victory against a previously unbeaten New England team that ran up 20+ point victories in its 2 previous playoff games. Cut to reaction shots of '72 Dolphin players when they realize they remain the only undefeated champions in the Superbowl era, and cut to a dour looking Belichick wondering how the hell their perfect season could be snatched away in the last game.
Either that, or New England will have a rematch against Dallas and pound them again, winning by 40 points and setting all sorts of scoring records in a lopsided game.
But anyway, here's my full prediction for the playoff seedings:
AFC
1) New England
2) Pittsburgh
3) Indianapolis
4) San Diego
5) Tennessee
6) Jacksonville
First round, Jacksonville upsets Indianapolis, San Diego beats Tennessee. 2nd Round, New England trounces Jacksonville, Pittsburgh manhandles San Diego. AFC Championship New England beats Pittsburgh by better than 3 TDs.
NFC
1)Dallas
2)Green Bay
3)New Orleans
4)Arizona
5)Tampa Bay
6)NY Giants
First Round, New Orleans beats NY Giants, Arizona beats Tampa Bay. 2nd Round, Dallas is upset by Arizona, Green Bay beats New Orleans. NFC Championship Arizona upsets Green Bay on the "Frozen Tundra"
Superbowl XLII in Arizona
New England 61 Arizona 20
In the AFC, it's pretty easy to figure out who 5 of the 6 playoff teams will be, with the remaining playoff spot to go to whichever AFC West team manages to blow the fewest games the rest of the season.
New England and Pittsburgh are locks to win their divisions, while the AFC South is a three way battle between Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. All three of those teams should make the playoffs, and I think San Diego should still emerge from the pile of mediocre teams in the AFC West and win their division, or Norv Turner could do what Norv Turner does best and through horrendous play calling manage to get this talented team to miss the playoffs all together. In that scenario, then Denver is more likely to emerge as the winner of that crappy division over Kansas City. What remains is the battle for playoff seeding, with New England a sure thing as the 1 seed, and Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and maybe even Jacksonville fighting it out for the other team to get a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
None if it matters, though, it will come down to New England hosting whichever AFC team survives to the end to meet them in the AFC Championship game, and barring injuries will crush them.
The NFC is largely irrelevant, but more intriguing as more teams have a real shot at making the playoffs. The NFC is irrelevant, cause unless the Superbowl ends up being a fluky game, New England will crush any opposition in front of it, and more intriguing cause any one of 9 teams has a real shot at representing the NFC in the Superbowl (though, Dallas and Green Bay have to be considered strong favorites).
Dallas and Green Bay are in, and will win their divisions easily, but each will press the other to go for best record to host a potential NFC Championship game match up between the two. The other two divisions are up in the air, with Tampa Bay looking like the best of a bad bunch of NFC South teams, and either Seattle or Arizona emerging from the craptacular NFC West. Detroit and NY Giants have the inside track on the wildcard, but both teams are capable of collapsing the rest of the season, and the likes of Carolina, New Orleans, Chicago, Philadelphia, could all finish in a 5 way tie at 9-7 or 8-8 for the two wild card spots. Should make the last two weeks of the season a headache with regards to tie breaking scenarios.
It's possible with Dallas and Green Bay coasting at the end of the regualr season, and the other teams all struggling to make the playoffs, that the struggle will help focus those teams come the 2nd week of the playoffs, whereas a rusty Dallas and Green Bay could get upset at home when they host the survivors. It's not entirely inconceivable to imagine that Arizona could end up being the first team to play in a Superbowl in their home stadium (that scenario remains highly unlikely, but if Warner stays healthy somehow, and their defense continues to play well, they are as good as any other team in the NFC).
It would be a good story, Kurt Warner leading an Arizona team to an improbable victory against a previously unbeaten New England team that ran up 20+ point victories in its 2 previous playoff games. Cut to reaction shots of '72 Dolphin players when they realize they remain the only undefeated champions in the Superbowl era, and cut to a dour looking Belichick wondering how the hell their perfect season could be snatched away in the last game.
Either that, or New England will have a rematch against Dallas and pound them again, winning by 40 points and setting all sorts of scoring records in a lopsided game.
But anyway, here's my full prediction for the playoff seedings:
AFC
1) New England
2) Pittsburgh
3) Indianapolis
4) San Diego
5) Tennessee
6) Jacksonville
First round, Jacksonville upsets Indianapolis, San Diego beats Tennessee. 2nd Round, New England trounces Jacksonville, Pittsburgh manhandles San Diego. AFC Championship New England beats Pittsburgh by better than 3 TDs.
NFC
1)Dallas
2)Green Bay
3)New Orleans
4)Arizona
5)Tampa Bay
6)NY Giants
First Round, New Orleans beats NY Giants, Arizona beats Tampa Bay. 2nd Round, Dallas is upset by Arizona, Green Bay beats New Orleans. NFC Championship Arizona upsets Green Bay on the "Frozen Tundra"
Superbowl XLII in Arizona
New England 61 Arizona 20
10 November 2007
Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week TEN)
Week Ten already, last week with byes, it gets serious from here on out. I only have 8 more chances to improve my winning percentage, so it's 5-0 or bust this week. My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ after ranting endlessly about the officiating in the Pats-Colts contest, also makes his picks on the games, they can be found in a little sidebar box. I made my picks before looking at his, but given his performance of late, I feel pretty good about picking exactly opposite every one of his picks.
On to my perfect picks for the week:
Cleveland(5-3) at Pittsburgh(6-2) Pittsburgh -10.0 BS Picks Cleveland
Cleveland have been pretty impressive this season. The Browns are for real, but the Steelers have been looking pretty good lately, and when they played in Cleveland opening week, the Steelers beat the Browns 34-7. I don't expect Cleveland to do any better on Heinz Field. Expect a Steelers victory, and expect a blowout.
Minnesota (3-5) at Green Bay (7-1) Green Bay -5.5 BS Picks Minnesota
Green Bay won't make the same mistake San Diego did last week. They'll do everything they can to stop Peterson, and dare the Vikings to win the game passing. This is a rematch, Green Bay won a close contest in Minnesota back in September, it won't be close this time. The Packers will roll, and continue piling up victories. If the Vikings do lose, their season is done, they'd have to go 6-1 the rest of the way to sneak into the playoffs, and that's not going to happen.
Dallas (7-1) at NY Giants (6-2) Dallas -1.5 BS Picks NY Giants
Dallas seems to be on track again after two bad weeks against Buffalo and New England. The Giants haven't faced a team with a winning record since week 3 when they had their furious 2nd half comeback against Washington. Manning has been awful, even though they've been winning. Their defensive line has been great, but Dallas has a very good Offensive line, and Romo should have enough time to exploit the Giants secondary. This is a rematch of the season opener, and both teams look better than they did back then, but I expect a similar result this time around. Dallas should be able to dispatch this Giants team without too much trouble.
Indianapolis (7-1) at San Diego (4-4) San Diego +3.5 BS Picks Indianapolis
After last week's crappy showing by the Chargers, I'm crazy to pick them to beat the 2nd best team in the NFL. But crazier things have happened, and the Chargers have been very good at home. The Colts will rebound from their tough loss against New England, but not in this game, they'll get upset by a Chargers team that will remember they still have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball themselves.
San Francisco (2-6) at Seattle (4-4) Seattle -9.5 BS Picks San Francisco
Neither of these teams are any good, and I'm concerned about giving up so many points, even against a poor 49ers team, but Seattle's at home, so they should be able to win by 2 TDs or more. If you watch this game Monday night, you seriously need to rethink your priorities, however. This ought to be thoroughly unwatchable.
On to my perfect picks for the week:
Cleveland(5-3) at Pittsburgh(6-2) Pittsburgh -10.0 BS Picks Cleveland
Cleveland have been pretty impressive this season. The Browns are for real, but the Steelers have been looking pretty good lately, and when they played in Cleveland opening week, the Steelers beat the Browns 34-7. I don't expect Cleveland to do any better on Heinz Field. Expect a Steelers victory, and expect a blowout.
Minnesota (3-5) at Green Bay (7-1) Green Bay -5.5 BS Picks Minnesota
Green Bay won't make the same mistake San Diego did last week. They'll do everything they can to stop Peterson, and dare the Vikings to win the game passing. This is a rematch, Green Bay won a close contest in Minnesota back in September, it won't be close this time. The Packers will roll, and continue piling up victories. If the Vikings do lose, their season is done, they'd have to go 6-1 the rest of the way to sneak into the playoffs, and that's not going to happen.
Dallas (7-1) at NY Giants (6-2) Dallas -1.5 BS Picks NY Giants
Dallas seems to be on track again after two bad weeks against Buffalo and New England. The Giants haven't faced a team with a winning record since week 3 when they had their furious 2nd half comeback against Washington. Manning has been awful, even though they've been winning. Their defensive line has been great, but Dallas has a very good Offensive line, and Romo should have enough time to exploit the Giants secondary. This is a rematch of the season opener, and both teams look better than they did back then, but I expect a similar result this time around. Dallas should be able to dispatch this Giants team without too much trouble.
Indianapolis (7-1) at San Diego (4-4) San Diego +3.5 BS Picks Indianapolis
After last week's crappy showing by the Chargers, I'm crazy to pick them to beat the 2nd best team in the NFL. But crazier things have happened, and the Chargers have been very good at home. The Colts will rebound from their tough loss against New England, but not in this game, they'll get upset by a Chargers team that will remember they still have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball themselves.
San Francisco (2-6) at Seattle (4-4) Seattle -9.5 BS Picks San Francisco
Neither of these teams are any good, and I'm concerned about giving up so many points, even against a poor 49ers team, but Seattle's at home, so they should be able to win by 2 TDs or more. If you watch this game Monday night, you seriously need to rethink your priorities, however. This ought to be thoroughly unwatchable.
RESULTS Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week NINE)
Week Nine was interesting. I think My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ has gone slightly off his rocker with his complaining over the officiating in the Pats-Colts contest. Yes, some questionable calls were made, yes almost all of them were against the Pats, but seriously, dude, dude, seriously, I mean, dude, seriously, VICTORY?!?, Really?!? Dude, seriously, dude, not a good movie, and as a point of reference for your entire rant just makes you sound kind of crazy.
As far as my picks go, I was an lousy 1-4 for the week, only getting it right on the GB-KC game, otherwise. BS went 1-4 also, he missed on GB-KC, but got it right on DAL-PHI, we both suck, but I'm not getting paid for my sports knowledge, so he sucks harder. We remain tied, now at a pretty awful 19-23-3, if you use my picks or BS's picks to try and make some money, you get what you deserve.
Now on to the recaps:
San Diego 17 Minnesota 35 I Picked SD -7.0, BS SD
D'oh! Adrian Peterson broke the single game rushing record, and was unstoppable. I thought San Diego had a defense, I guess I was wrong. They are a Jekyl and Hyde team, one week they look pretty awesome, on others they look terrible. Can they put together a good game and beat the Colts next week? The Vikings are a bit enigmatic, the have talent, and a great running back, but they have no passing game, so teams should be able to load up in the box and stop Peterson, yet San Diego managed to not do that last week, and given how week the NFC is, they are still a threat to get a wildcard, even at 3-5.
Green Bay 33 Kansas City 22 I Picked GB +2.0, BS KC
Woohoo! Green Bay is 7-1, yet they really don't seem like one of the better teams in the NFC. I'd still rank NYG, DAL, and even NO ahead of them. But they've been playing well enough to win, and Favre has been excellent, plus they have a really solid defense. KC is still in a good position to win the AFC West and earn themselves an early exit from the playoffs, like usual.
New England 24 Indianapolis 20 I Picked NE -5.5, BS NE
D'oh! This was the big one, the most anticipated regular season game in just about ever, and it was surprisingly sloppy. NE set a team record for penalty yardage, yet managed to win anyway. They didn't cover the spread, though, so even if they go 19-0, they aren't going 19-0 against the spread. Indy still appears to be the 2nd best team in football, but with this loss, it seems likely that their eventual rematch will be played outdoors in Foxboro, that's going to make repeating their AFC Championship triumph against the Pats much more difficult.
Dallas 38 Philadelphia 17 I Picked Phi +3.0, BS Dal
D'oh! Here I wrote about the revenge factor for TO in my pick post, yet I still went with Philly, should have known better. Dallas has a decent defense, and a potent offense, it will be fun to watch their big showdown with the NYGiants this week. The Eagles are done, their season is over, and McNabb probably won't be playing for them next year. Getting Westbrook back didn't make as big of a difference as a I expected, oh well.
Baltimore 7 Pittsburgh 38 I picked Bal +9.0, BS Bal
D'oh! The Ravens aren't very good, turns out, and the Steelers are nearly unbeatable in night games. Pittsburgh may be the best of the rest in the AFC, and if they put together a good game in the playoffs might upset either the Pats or the Colts, but only if they keep on playing well into late December.
As far as my picks go, I was an lousy 1-4 for the week, only getting it right on the GB-KC game, otherwise. BS went 1-4 also, he missed on GB-KC, but got it right on DAL-PHI, we both suck, but I'm not getting paid for my sports knowledge, so he sucks harder. We remain tied, now at a pretty awful 19-23-3, if you use my picks or BS's picks to try and make some money, you get what you deserve.
Now on to the recaps:
San Diego 17 Minnesota 35 I Picked SD -7.0, BS SD
D'oh! Adrian Peterson broke the single game rushing record, and was unstoppable. I thought San Diego had a defense, I guess I was wrong. They are a Jekyl and Hyde team, one week they look pretty awesome, on others they look terrible. Can they put together a good game and beat the Colts next week? The Vikings are a bit enigmatic, the have talent, and a great running back, but they have no passing game, so teams should be able to load up in the box and stop Peterson, yet San Diego managed to not do that last week, and given how week the NFC is, they are still a threat to get a wildcard, even at 3-5.
Green Bay 33 Kansas City 22 I Picked GB +2.0, BS KC
Woohoo! Green Bay is 7-1, yet they really don't seem like one of the better teams in the NFC. I'd still rank NYG, DAL, and even NO ahead of them. But they've been playing well enough to win, and Favre has been excellent, plus they have a really solid defense. KC is still in a good position to win the AFC West and earn themselves an early exit from the playoffs, like usual.
New England 24 Indianapolis 20 I Picked NE -5.5, BS NE
D'oh! This was the big one, the most anticipated regular season game in just about ever, and it was surprisingly sloppy. NE set a team record for penalty yardage, yet managed to win anyway. They didn't cover the spread, though, so even if they go 19-0, they aren't going 19-0 against the spread. Indy still appears to be the 2nd best team in football, but with this loss, it seems likely that their eventual rematch will be played outdoors in Foxboro, that's going to make repeating their AFC Championship triumph against the Pats much more difficult.
Dallas 38 Philadelphia 17 I Picked Phi +3.0, BS Dal
D'oh! Here I wrote about the revenge factor for TO in my pick post, yet I still went with Philly, should have known better. Dallas has a decent defense, and a potent offense, it will be fun to watch their big showdown with the NYGiants this week. The Eagles are done, their season is over, and McNabb probably won't be playing for them next year. Getting Westbrook back didn't make as big of a difference as a I expected, oh well.
Baltimore 7 Pittsburgh 38 I picked Bal +9.0, BS Bal
D'oh! The Ravens aren't very good, turns out, and the Steelers are nearly unbeatable in night games. Pittsburgh may be the best of the rest in the AFC, and if they put together a good game in the playoffs might upset either the Pats or the Colts, but only if they keep on playing well into late December.
03 November 2007
Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week NINE)
Now it gets interesting. The season is nearly mid-way done, and there are two teams clearly better than all the others, a few other solid contenders, a bunch of teams in the middle, and a few stinkers. That's how it usually is, but the two elite teams don't normally face each other while both are still undefeated in week nine. I'll stick to the televised games this week, most of them look pretty watchable, anyway. And congratulations to My Nemesis Bill Simmons™, not only did his Red Sox win their 2nd World Series in the past 4 years, but he's a new daddy, that's a good week (plus the new look Celtics looked pretty impressive). There's no post for his week 9 picks, just a quick listing of them on the front page of his blog with this note as to why he's not posting:
Enough about him though, here are my picks, I have no excuses for not posting about making picks like my Nemesis (other than wanting to get back to playing Guitar Hero III)
San Diego at Minnesota (San Diego -7.0) BS Picks San Diego
I'd give two TDs in this one. I doubt the Vikings will keep it close. Still don't know if San Diego is for real, more will be known if their current win streak means anything when they get to go up against Indianapolis next week. LT and Rivers seem to be rolling again, and their defense has played well, too.
Green Bay at Kansas City (Green Bay +2.0) BS Picks Kansas City
Kansas City has been winning lately, but so has Green Bay. You have a passing team that can't run, versus a running team that can't pass. Also, both teams have solid young defenses that throw a lot of good schemes at their opponent. I expect Green Bay to be better at making the in game adjustments, and at some point Huard will have to throw the ball, which doesn't bode well for the Chiefs.
New England at Indianapolis (New England -5.5) BS Picks New England
The Colts are undefeated, and the defending Superbowl champions, yet they are 5.5 point underdogs at home. Probably won't be that close. The Pats are scary. The Pats have a chip on their collective shoulder. The Pats will paste the home team and avenge their late game collapse in the AFC Championship game in January. Expect a rematch in New England this upcoming January. The '72 Dolphins will be rooting hard for Indy, this is the best shot anyone is going to have at preventing them from going 19-0 all season (barring injuries, of course).
Dallas at Philadelphia (Philadelphia +3.0) BS Picks Dallas
I'm probably going to regret this, but I just can't pick nothing but the betting favorites. With Westbrook back, the Eagles are a different team. Also with the turmoil in their coaches life at the moment, either the team will rally, or get really distracted. I'm guessing they'll go the inspired route, but I wouldn't be surprised if they get trounced, also. Dallas have been a touch shaky the past 3 games, but they only lost one of those games. Also, T.O. will want to play well in Philadelphia, if only to say a big "screw you" to the fans that will be booing and heckling him like crazy during the game.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Baltimore +9.0) BS Picks Baltimore
Turns out despite being 4-3 the Ravens are a really bad 1-6 against the spread. That's an impressively bad record against the spread, they've been beaten by a few bad teams, and struggled against others struggling to close victories. Pittsburgh has been up and down the past 4 games alternating wins and losses. Even if Baltimore loses, I think they'll keep it close, even though they barely have an offense this year. Probably a Monday Night game worth skipping.
The Pats-Colts game is getting the full hype treatment, deservedly so, but seeing how the other teams begin either solidifying their playoff chances, or sliding into a better draft pick should be interesting, too.
FYI: I'm off until next Friday, when I'll return with the Week 10 picks column. In fact, I'm not supposed to be typing anything right now because Manny Beckett Brady Pierce Garnett Ellsbury Simmons arrived this week (he's healthy and happy, thanks for asking) and the Sports Gal explicitly warned me, "You're taking a few days off to help me. It's not negotiable, and if you write anything about the Pats-Colts game this week, I'm going to do what Bridget did to Brady and ban you from the hospital."
Enough about him though, here are my picks, I have no excuses for not posting about making picks like my Nemesis (other than wanting to get back to playing Guitar Hero III)
San Diego at Minnesota (San Diego -7.0) BS Picks San Diego
I'd give two TDs in this one. I doubt the Vikings will keep it close. Still don't know if San Diego is for real, more will be known if their current win streak means anything when they get to go up against Indianapolis next week. LT and Rivers seem to be rolling again, and their defense has played well, too.
Green Bay at Kansas City (Green Bay +2.0) BS Picks Kansas City
Kansas City has been winning lately, but so has Green Bay. You have a passing team that can't run, versus a running team that can't pass. Also, both teams have solid young defenses that throw a lot of good schemes at their opponent. I expect Green Bay to be better at making the in game adjustments, and at some point Huard will have to throw the ball, which doesn't bode well for the Chiefs.
New England at Indianapolis (New England -5.5) BS Picks New England
The Colts are undefeated, and the defending Superbowl champions, yet they are 5.5 point underdogs at home. Probably won't be that close. The Pats are scary. The Pats have a chip on their collective shoulder. The Pats will paste the home team and avenge their late game collapse in the AFC Championship game in January. Expect a rematch in New England this upcoming January. The '72 Dolphins will be rooting hard for Indy, this is the best shot anyone is going to have at preventing them from going 19-0 all season (barring injuries, of course).
Dallas at Philadelphia (Philadelphia +3.0) BS Picks Dallas
I'm probably going to regret this, but I just can't pick nothing but the betting favorites. With Westbrook back, the Eagles are a different team. Also with the turmoil in their coaches life at the moment, either the team will rally, or get really distracted. I'm guessing they'll go the inspired route, but I wouldn't be surprised if they get trounced, also. Dallas have been a touch shaky the past 3 games, but they only lost one of those games. Also, T.O. will want to play well in Philadelphia, if only to say a big "screw you" to the fans that will be booing and heckling him like crazy during the game.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Baltimore +9.0) BS Picks Baltimore
Turns out despite being 4-3 the Ravens are a really bad 1-6 against the spread. That's an impressively bad record against the spread, they've been beaten by a few bad teams, and struggled against others struggling to close victories. Pittsburgh has been up and down the past 4 games alternating wins and losses. Even if Baltimore loses, I think they'll keep it close, even though they barely have an offense this year. Probably a Monday Night game worth skipping.
The Pats-Colts game is getting the full hype treatment, deservedly so, but seeing how the other teams begin either solidifying their playoff chances, or sliding into a better draft pick should be interesting, too.
RESULTS Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week EIGHT)
Another week, another week of humiliation. This week it was 3-2 style humiliation, with My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ also going 3-2. After eight weeks of this stuff, we are both sitting at 18-19-3. Here's hoping next week will get me over .500.
Indianapolis 31 Carolina 7 (I picked Carolina +7.0)
D'oh! It's not their offense that's been impressive this year, rather their defense. The Colts defense is much better than last years. Whether or not that will be enough to get them back to the Superbowl remains to be seen (all signs are pointing to NO). Carolina had a bad game, but playing one of the two top teams in the NFL didn't help matters. Seems like the only team that gives Indy trouble consistently is Tennessee, otherwise they're solid. Carolina might cause some problems in the NFC playoffs, or they might drop to 6-10, there's a lot of games left.
Houston 10 San Diego 35 (I picked San Diego -9.0)
Woohoo! It wasn't as close as the score indicates (if that could be said for a 25 point victory). San Diego seems to have righted themselves, or they've just fattened up on three crappy teams. They travel to 2-5 Minnesota this week, but face a Sunday night showdown with Indianapolis the week after that. If they play well in that, they might be for real, even with Norv Turner calling the plays.
Jacksonville 24 Tampa Bay 23 (I picked Tampa Bay -3.5)
D'oh! You can't stop Quinn Gray, you can only hope to contain him. OK, maybe not, but he still got the job done (even if he overthrew his receivers on many plays), so while the Jaguars are waiting for Garrard to get better, their season might not fall apart. They have little hope of catching Indy, though, so all they can hope for is a wildcard berth. Tampa Bay are a hard team to figure out. They sit at 4-4, and are another team that could finish anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6. With New Orleans playing well again, they are in a muddled division with any of the three teams other than Atlanta capable of winning the NFC South.
Washington 7 New England 52 (I picked New England -16.0)
Woohoo! They're scary. The Pats aren't from this planet. Washington seemed like a decent team before this game, not so much, anymore. Tom Brady, 30TDs in 8 games. For the month of October 20 TDs and 1 INT. Couple that with a solid defense, and you have a team that has dominated their competition like no other in recent memory. If only they had a running game . . .
Green Bay 19 Denver 13 (I picked Green Bay +3.0)
Woohoo! Green Bay is probably pretty good. Denver on the other hand kind of sucks. Bad weekend for Colorado sports fans. The Packers didn't really get their offense together, but they managed to connect for two 75+ yard pass plays for their only TDs in the game (one in OT). Denver has a good enough defense to be in every game they play, but their lack of offense most likely means this is a year where they miss the playoffs.
So that was the week that was. I hear there's a pretty big game next week, I guess people can't wait to see how the 2-5 49ers handle heading to the 1-6 Falcons Georgia Dome, shame that won't be on TV here (oh, and there's that afternoon game between the Pats and Colts, I guess some people are looking forward to that one, too).
Indianapolis 31 Carolina 7 (I picked Carolina +7.0)
D'oh! It's not their offense that's been impressive this year, rather their defense. The Colts defense is much better than last years. Whether or not that will be enough to get them back to the Superbowl remains to be seen (all signs are pointing to NO). Carolina had a bad game, but playing one of the two top teams in the NFL didn't help matters. Seems like the only team that gives Indy trouble consistently is Tennessee, otherwise they're solid. Carolina might cause some problems in the NFC playoffs, or they might drop to 6-10, there's a lot of games left.
Houston 10 San Diego 35 (I picked San Diego -9.0)
Woohoo! It wasn't as close as the score indicates (if that could be said for a 25 point victory). San Diego seems to have righted themselves, or they've just fattened up on three crappy teams. They travel to 2-5 Minnesota this week, but face a Sunday night showdown with Indianapolis the week after that. If they play well in that, they might be for real, even with Norv Turner calling the plays.
Jacksonville 24 Tampa Bay 23 (I picked Tampa Bay -3.5)
D'oh! You can't stop Quinn Gray, you can only hope to contain him. OK, maybe not, but he still got the job done (even if he overthrew his receivers on many plays), so while the Jaguars are waiting for Garrard to get better, their season might not fall apart. They have little hope of catching Indy, though, so all they can hope for is a wildcard berth. Tampa Bay are a hard team to figure out. They sit at 4-4, and are another team that could finish anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6. With New Orleans playing well again, they are in a muddled division with any of the three teams other than Atlanta capable of winning the NFC South.
Washington 7 New England 52 (I picked New England -16.0)
Woohoo! They're scary. The Pats aren't from this planet. Washington seemed like a decent team before this game, not so much, anymore. Tom Brady, 30TDs in 8 games. For the month of October 20 TDs and 1 INT. Couple that with a solid defense, and you have a team that has dominated their competition like no other in recent memory. If only they had a running game . . .
Green Bay 19 Denver 13 (I picked Green Bay +3.0)
Woohoo! Green Bay is probably pretty good. Denver on the other hand kind of sucks. Bad weekend for Colorado sports fans. The Packers didn't really get their offense together, but they managed to connect for two 75+ yard pass plays for their only TDs in the game (one in OT). Denver has a good enough defense to be in every game they play, but their lack of offense most likely means this is a year where they miss the playoffs.
So that was the week that was. I hear there's a pretty big game next week, I guess people can't wait to see how the 2-5 49ers handle heading to the 1-6 Falcons Georgia Dome, shame that won't be on TV here (oh, and there's that afternoon game between the Pats and Colts, I guess some people are looking forward to that one, too).
27 October 2007
Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week EIGHT)
Another week of mediocre match-ups. 3 of the 13 games this week are between two teams with winning records, and none of those are amongst the four games being televised in Los Angeles. Way to go NFL! I'm going to break form a touch, since there are only four games on TV this week, and pick from the 3 games with both teams above .500, plus I'll add the Houston at San Diego game that's being televised here, along with the Monday night game, which almost qualifies (Denver's at 3-3, Green Bay is rocking it at 5-1). The two games being televised here that I'm ignoring are the NYG v Miami game being played in London, and the New Orleans at San Francisco game which looks like a suckfest between two teams that have no hopes of making the playoffs this year. And My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ has his picks as usual, check over there and compare, also his weekly podcast (link is to a direct download of the 10.1MB mp3) includes an interview with Charles Barkley, never miss a chance to here what's on Sir Charles' mind, he's always a good listen. Now, on to the picks . . .
Indianapolis (6-0) at Carolina (4-2) Carolina +7.0 BS Picks Indianapolis
Indianapolis remain undefeated, and played very well las week beating up on Jacksonville on Monday night. Meanwhile, Carolina had a bye week last week. So you have short week v. week off. Couple that with home field advantage, and I don't see Carolina losing this, or at the very least, losing by more than a TD. Carolina has a solid defense, and should be able to handle the explosive Colts attack, even if older than I am Vinny Testaverde is taking snaps under center.
Houston (3-4) at San Diego (3-3) San Diego -9.0 BS Picks San Diego (sort of)
San Diego seems to have righted themselves, and despite the very Norv Turner-ish behavior of Norv Turner, I don't see this team getting screwed up by the tumult from this week's fires. The game will be at Qualcomm, the ocean breezes are back so the air quality shouldn't be too horrendous, and Houston is dealing with QB issues. So I expect the Chargers to run away with this one. When he went to press, there was no line on this game since where this game was going to be played was still up in the air. So I'll just pretend BS went with the same pick I did.
Jacksonville (4-2) at Tampa Bay (4-3) Tampa Bay -3.5 BS Picks Tampa Bay
Jacksonville is coming off of getting beat up on Monday night, while Tampa Bay is getting over beating themselves with a late turnover against Detroit on Sunday. Home cooking, and QB questions with the Jaguars are the deciding factor for me. The Bucs should be able to handle a good Jaguars team and cover the spread.
Washington (4-2) at New England (7-0) New England -16.0 BS Picks Washington
I hate giving up 16.0 points. But the Pats are the Pats this season, and to go against them, even when taking the spread into account would be foolish. The Skins are a good team, but are overmatched here. And what's the deal here. Mr. Boston aka My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ is picking Washington?!? He expects them to still go 19-0, just not 19-0 against the spread, but the way they've been spanking teams, there's no reason to expect them not to win by at least 3 TDs, so if I'm wrong on any game this week, I hope it's this one.
Green Bay (5-1) at Denver (3-3) Green Bay +3.0 BS Picks Green Bay
So the oddsmakers thing these teams are about evenly matched. A field goal advantage is standard for the home team when the teams are equal. I don't see it. Green Bay has played well, while Denver has been beaten soundly by the better teams they've faced (though they did surprise Pittsburgh last week). Expect the Broncos to go down in flames as if they were the Rockies against the Red Sox.
Indianapolis (6-0) at Carolina (4-2) Carolina +7.0 BS Picks Indianapolis
Indianapolis remain undefeated, and played very well las week beating up on Jacksonville on Monday night. Meanwhile, Carolina had a bye week last week. So you have short week v. week off. Couple that with home field advantage, and I don't see Carolina losing this, or at the very least, losing by more than a TD. Carolina has a solid defense, and should be able to handle the explosive Colts attack, even if older than I am Vinny Testaverde is taking snaps under center.
Houston (3-4) at San Diego (3-3) San Diego -9.0 BS Picks San Diego (sort of)
San Diego seems to have righted themselves, and despite the very Norv Turner-ish behavior of Norv Turner, I don't see this team getting screwed up by the tumult from this week's fires. The game will be at Qualcomm, the ocean breezes are back so the air quality shouldn't be too horrendous, and Houston is dealing with QB issues. So I expect the Chargers to run away with this one. When he went to press, there was no line on this game since where this game was going to be played was still up in the air. So I'll just pretend BS went with the same pick I did.
Jacksonville (4-2) at Tampa Bay (4-3) Tampa Bay -3.5 BS Picks Tampa Bay
Jacksonville is coming off of getting beat up on Monday night, while Tampa Bay is getting over beating themselves with a late turnover against Detroit on Sunday. Home cooking, and QB questions with the Jaguars are the deciding factor for me. The Bucs should be able to handle a good Jaguars team and cover the spread.
Washington (4-2) at New England (7-0) New England -16.0 BS Picks Washington
I hate giving up 16.0 points. But the Pats are the Pats this season, and to go against them, even when taking the spread into account would be foolish. The Skins are a good team, but are overmatched here. And what's the deal here. Mr. Boston aka My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ is picking Washington?!? He expects them to still go 19-0, just not 19-0 against the spread, but the way they've been spanking teams, there's no reason to expect them not to win by at least 3 TDs, so if I'm wrong on any game this week, I hope it's this one.
Green Bay (5-1) at Denver (3-3) Green Bay +3.0 BS Picks Green Bay
So the oddsmakers thing these teams are about evenly matched. A field goal advantage is standard for the home team when the teams are equal. I don't see it. Green Bay has played well, while Denver has been beaten soundly by the better teams they've faced (though they did surprise Pittsburgh last week). Expect the Broncos to go down in flames as if they were the Rockies against the Red Sox.
24 October 2007
Super Mega Humiliation (NFL Variety) Results Post (Weeks 5, 6 and 7)
Been slacking off on the results post, so rather than individual ones, thought I'd slap them all together into one big overview of the past 3 weeks of NFL Football.
The season is shaping up to be especially craptacular, excepting for New England and Indianapolis. The rest of the teams are in one huge pig-pile of mediocre to awful.
They should switch the playoff format now, to a seeded format that ignores conference. It'll be a shame for Indianapolis and New England to play for the "real" Superbowl two weeks before the scheduled Superbowl, but that's the way this season appears to be shaping up.
Not bothering with individual breakdowns, I'll just run the totals, and compare them to MY Nemesis Bill Simmons™.
Week 5:XWL 4-1, BS 1-4 Cummalative totals XWL 12-12-1 BS 12-12-1
Week 6:XWL 2-1-2, BS 1-2-2, Cummalative totals XWL 14-13-3, BS 13-14-3
Week 7:XWL 1-4, BS 2-3, Cummalative totals XWL 15-17-3 BS 15-17-3
As you can see, BS and I are an equally lousy 15-17-3 at this point in the season against the spread. Week 5 was glorious with only Buffalo's covering the spread versus Dallas in that amazing Monday night contest tripping me up, and Week 6 I only screwed up on Seattle, since I'd already assumed the Saints were done for the season. We won't talk about Week 7, the less said about this past weekend, the better. The only thing I'll say is that what crappy scheduling. Out of all the games last week, only two were between two teams with better than .500 records, the first one that comes to mind is easy, that was Indianapolis at Jacksonville, but you have to be a real NFL fan to know the other off the top of your head (Tampa Bay at Detroit).
10 weeks to go, I don't think I'll be going 50-0 over the next 10 weeks, but here's hoping, and with upcoming Thursday and Saturday games coming, I'll stick to picking just five games, even when more than five are telecast.
But screw football anyway, now's the time of year to start thinking about the NBA...
The season is shaping up to be especially craptacular, excepting for New England and Indianapolis. The rest of the teams are in one huge pig-pile of mediocre to awful.
They should switch the playoff format now, to a seeded format that ignores conference. It'll be a shame for Indianapolis and New England to play for the "real" Superbowl two weeks before the scheduled Superbowl, but that's the way this season appears to be shaping up.
Not bothering with individual breakdowns, I'll just run the totals, and compare them to MY Nemesis Bill Simmons™.
Week 5:XWL 4-1, BS 1-4 Cummalative totals XWL 12-12-1 BS 12-12-1
Week 6:XWL 2-1-2, BS 1-2-2, Cummalative totals XWL 14-13-3, BS 13-14-3
Week 7:XWL 1-4, BS 2-3, Cummalative totals XWL 15-17-3 BS 15-17-3
As you can see, BS and I are an equally lousy 15-17-3 at this point in the season against the spread. Week 5 was glorious with only Buffalo's covering the spread versus Dallas in that amazing Monday night contest tripping me up, and Week 6 I only screwed up on Seattle, since I'd already assumed the Saints were done for the season. We won't talk about Week 7, the less said about this past weekend, the better. The only thing I'll say is that what crappy scheduling. Out of all the games last week, only two were between two teams with better than .500 records, the first one that comes to mind is easy, that was Indianapolis at Jacksonville, but you have to be a real NFL fan to know the other off the top of your head (Tampa Bay at Detroit).
10 weeks to go, I don't think I'll be going 50-0 over the next 10 weeks, but here's hoping, and with upcoming Thursday and Saturday games coming, I'll stick to picking just five games, even when more than five are telecast.
But screw football anyway, now's the time of year to start thinking about the NBA...
20 October 2007
Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week SEVEN)
Another week of lousy football. There are no match-ups between two good teams on Sunday, televised in L.A. or not. It'll be a good Sunday for doing other stuff, enjoy the crisp October air, avoid football all together. The only game worth watching will be on Monday night with Indy heading to Jax. Here's my picks for the 4 lousy contests (plus 1 good one) being broadcast in LA this week (and here's the link to all of BS's Picks, plus commentary on the comparative difficulty level between going undefeated in an NFL season and going undefeated in a Fantasy Football League):
San Francisco(2-3) at New York Giants(4-2) San Francisco +9.0 BS Picks NYG
San Francisco is a bad team, and have lost 3 straight. NY Giants, are also a bad team, but they've won 4 straight. I think the Niners will have a bounce back game, and the Giants will return to bickering and trying to get their coach fired. I'm picking a team QB'd by Trent Dilfer to cover the spread, probably a mistake, but I think the Giants' win streak is a mirage.
Minnesota(2-3) at Dallas(5-1) Minnesota +9.5 BS Picks Minn
Dallas are a good team, but they're coming off of a humiliating thumping at the hands of New England. Minnesota are better than their record would indicate, and they have their key strength matched-up against Dallas' key weakness. The Minnesota running attack will control this game, and Dallas doesn't have the defense to stop them. Even if Minnesota doesn't pull of the upset, they'll keep the score close.
Kansas City(3-3) at Oakland(2-3) Oakland -3.0 BS Picks Oak
Neither of these teams are any good, the entire division is mostly crappy with teams that will finish between 6-10 and 9-7. Oakland gets the nod for home field advantage, and they can't be as bad as San Diego made them look last week, they need to bounce back, and they will.
Pittsburgh(4-1) at Denver(2-3) Pittsburgh -3.5 BS Picks Pitt
Denver is a really bad team, and their home field advantage ain't what it used to be. Pittsburgh are a cut below the elite two of the league right now (that'd be Indy and New England) but they are probably the best of the rest (along with Jacksonville). I expect them to handle the Broncos, and beat them handily.
Indianapolis(5-0) at Jacksonvillle(4-1) Indianapolis -3.0 BS Picks Indy
The only good game of the week, and it's happening on Monday night, ESPN must be thrilled. Undefeated Indy goes up against once beaten Jax. Ought to be a good game, or a blowout, not sure yet. Either the Jaguars hold down the score and control the tempo, or the Colts make a few big plays and run away with this game. Jacksonville wins if it's low scoring, Indianapolis wins if it's a touchdownfest. But, that's obvious, so which will it be? I'm going with TD-fest. Indy are close to unstoppable at the moment, and Jax won't be able to keep up.
San Francisco(2-3) at New York Giants(4-2) San Francisco +9.0 BS Picks NYG
San Francisco is a bad team, and have lost 3 straight. NY Giants, are also a bad team, but they've won 4 straight. I think the Niners will have a bounce back game, and the Giants will return to bickering and trying to get their coach fired. I'm picking a team QB'd by Trent Dilfer to cover the spread, probably a mistake, but I think the Giants' win streak is a mirage.
Minnesota(2-3) at Dallas(5-1) Minnesota +9.5 BS Picks Minn
Dallas are a good team, but they're coming off of a humiliating thumping at the hands of New England. Minnesota are better than their record would indicate, and they have their key strength matched-up against Dallas' key weakness. The Minnesota running attack will control this game, and Dallas doesn't have the defense to stop them. Even if Minnesota doesn't pull of the upset, they'll keep the score close.
Kansas City(3-3) at Oakland(2-3) Oakland -3.0 BS Picks Oak
Neither of these teams are any good, the entire division is mostly crappy with teams that will finish between 6-10 and 9-7. Oakland gets the nod for home field advantage, and they can't be as bad as San Diego made them look last week, they need to bounce back, and they will.
Pittsburgh(4-1) at Denver(2-3) Pittsburgh -3.5 BS Picks Pitt
Denver is a really bad team, and their home field advantage ain't what it used to be. Pittsburgh are a cut below the elite two of the league right now (that'd be Indy and New England) but they are probably the best of the rest (along with Jacksonville). I expect them to handle the Broncos, and beat them handily.
Indianapolis(5-0) at Jacksonvillle(4-1) Indianapolis -3.0 BS Picks Indy
The only good game of the week, and it's happening on Monday night, ESPN must be thrilled. Undefeated Indy goes up against once beaten Jax. Ought to be a good game, or a blowout, not sure yet. Either the Jaguars hold down the score and control the tempo, or the Colts make a few big plays and run away with this game. Jacksonville wins if it's low scoring, Indianapolis wins if it's a touchdownfest. But, that's obvious, so which will it be? I'm going with TD-fest. Indy are close to unstoppable at the moment, and Jax won't be able to keep up.
14 October 2007
Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week SIX)
Another week, this time 5-0 or bust! The games being televised are all pretty crummy. Can anybody explain to me why the New England at Dallas game isn't being televised in Los Angeles? CBS has the broadcast rights, and they are televising the late game on Sunday, but instead of a battle between undefeated teams, we get to see Oakland at San Diego instead. Grrrrr. Arrrrgggghhh. On the plus side, saves me the trouble of making a selection in that game. I've got nothing to say about any of these games, I'll just give a quick summary of all my picks with links to the usual ESPN intel reports. Also, here's the link to My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ picks for this week.
Tennessee (3-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2) (Tennessee +3.0) BS Picks Ten
Washington (3-1) at Green Bay (4-1) (Green Bay -3.0) BS Picks GB
Oakland (2-2) at San Diego (2-3) (San Diego -9.5) BS Picks Oak
New Orleans (0-4) at Seattle (3-2) (Seattle -6.5) BS Picks NO
NY Giants (3-2) at Atlanta (1-4) (NYG -3.5) BS Picks Atl
Tennessee is coming off a bye week and look like the better team. Green Bay should bounce back off of a tough loss last week. San Diego played very well against Denver, and should do just as well at home against Oakland. Seattle doesn't look very good, especially after getting shut out by Pittsburgh, but New Orleans looks worse. The NY Giants are an iffy team, but Atlanta is Atlanta this season, so the NYG should handle them. I ought to catch up some more ground on BS, his picks this week are inexplicable.
UPDATE 9:56am
Adjusted the lines so that mine match the ones BS uses, doesn't change any of my picks, but could potentially effect the outcomes.
Tennessee (3-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2) (Tennessee +3.0) BS Picks Ten
Washington (3-1) at Green Bay (4-1) (Green Bay -3.0) BS Picks GB
Oakland (2-2) at San Diego (2-3) (San Diego -9.5) BS Picks Oak
New Orleans (0-4) at Seattle (3-2) (Seattle -6.5) BS Picks NO
NY Giants (3-2) at Atlanta (1-4) (NYG -3.5) BS Picks Atl
Tennessee is coming off a bye week and look like the better team. Green Bay should bounce back off of a tough loss last week. San Diego played very well against Denver, and should do just as well at home against Oakland. Seattle doesn't look very good, especially after getting shut out by Pittsburgh, but New Orleans looks worse. The NY Giants are an iffy team, but Atlanta is Atlanta this season, so the NYG should handle them. I ought to catch up some more ground on BS, his picks this week are inexplicable.
UPDATE 9:56am
Adjusted the lines so that mine match the ones BS uses, doesn't change any of my picks, but could potentially effect the outcomes.
03 October 2007
Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week FIVE)
What a lousy week of football on TV. This is the best the NFL could do? (looking at the other available games, seems that this is the case, d'oh!) As usual here are my five picks of the five games in the L.A. TV market.
Seattle(3-1) at Pittsburgh(3-1) (Pittsburgh -6.0) BS Picks Seattle
Pittsburgh didn't perform well losing to Arizona last week, that can't be good for a team. Seattle has been winning, but they haven't really made any sort of impression this season. I think Pittsburgh will bounce back from a bad week last week and remember to get the ball in the endzone as well as play some defense. Pittsburgh has more talent than Seattle, and they're at home, so that settles that.
Jacksonville(2-1) at Kansas City(2-2) (Jacksonville -2.0) BS Picks Chiefs
I don't care about either of these franchises, but this is what's on TV, so I'm going to make a pick. KC are home underdogs for a reason, and Jax is coming off of a bye week which should be of some benefit (although if I checked the records since they've gone to the 17 week schedule, I might find that teams coming off of a bye playing teams who played the previous week do worse than normal cause of rust and too much time off, or not). Will be low scoring, whichever team pulls of the victory.
San Diego(1-3) at Denver(2-2) (San Diego +1.0) BS Picks San Diego
In Norv I trust. OK, not really, but San Diego just can't be as bad as they've been. It's not possible. They haven't lost any big players from last year's squad that had 11 players in the Pro Bowl. Are you telling me that Marty was that great of a coach and Norv is that bad of a coach? Don't answer that. Denver's been so-so this year, and even though they are at home, I think the Chargers are capable of digging deep inside themselves and eliminate the mistakes on offense that have cost them three ball games in a row (really 2 of 3, as nothing would have helped against New England). I just believe in San Diego a little more (despite all the evidence) than I do Denver at this point in the season.
Chicago(1-3) at Green Bay(4-0) (Chicago +3.0) BS Picks Green Bay
If Chicago would listen to my all Devin Hester all the time suggestion for their offense they'd be unstoppable, but they aren't ready to do something so radical. They've been terrible and they're going up against an undefeated Green Bay team at Lambeau, and yet I pick the Bears. Why? The Packers have no run game whatsoever, and against the Bears linebacker crew, that's going to be a big problem. Favre has avoided making crazy throws and kept the INTs way down compared to some of his gunslinger years, but he hasn't faced a defense like Chicago's yet this year. Chicago's offense just has to hold on to the football, and they'll be able to win this one. It's simple really, and yet that's proved impossible for them this season so far. But against a division rival, after getting embarrassed by Detroit, I think they'll turn things around.
Dallas(4-0) at Buffalo(1-3) (Dallas -10.0) BS Picks Dallas
It's early enough in the year so that the field in Buffalo won't be covered in ice and snow. Lucky for Dallas, but there is rain in the forecast, which might slowdown the Cowboys high powered offense a touch. Dallas will win this game, Buffalo is overmatched on both sides of the ball, but there's a small chance that Dallas will not score as much as they normally do if conditions are crappy. They may end up going up big early, and then letting Buffalo come back enough to beat the spread but not win the game. I hate it when road teams are favored by better than a TD. Chances are they'll score their usual 30+ and Buffalo won't get more than 13, so this pick should be safe.
Checking in with My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ (I've decided to start the process to register a trademark on the phrase, "My Nemesis Bill Simmons™", that's right, if you want to declare Mr. Simmons as your nemesis as well, I expect some recompense), his picks for week five aren't out yet, I'll update this when he gets around to it. Meanwhile, you can listen to this BS Report focusing on him and Cousin Sal guessing the lines on the Week Five matchups.
(and I may be exaggerating a bit about starting the process for registering the trademark on the phrase, "My Nemesis Bill Simmons™")
(also, didn't realize till I looked it up that it's UNLAWFUL to use ® unless you've officially registered your trademark with the proper agencies)
UPDATE: My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ doesn't make his picks till Friday, and the lines move a little bit between my picks on Wednesday, and his on Friday, I'm adjusting the post to reflect the current lines, and I'm including his picks right next to mine, to make figuring out our respective results easier. For his picks column this week he did an extensive break down of where all the NFL teams stand with respect to each other. It's a good read, I don't agree with all his ratings, but he gives good reasons for his rankings.
And in his breakdown of the Bears he has this, "And why didn't anyone mention the easiest possible fix for the Bears' offense, the one that was e-mailed to me 25 times last weekend ... namely, that they should just stick Devin Hester 20 yards behind the center and snap to him on every down?", I guess my suggestion about making Hester the "QB" wasn't unique.
My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ doesn't seem to follow his own advice when it comes to one pick. He's picking the Chiefs over Jax, even though he has Jacksonville 8th in his rankings and KC 26th. He's really giving that home crowd in KC a lot of credit.
And as a New England born and raised sports fan, his love for the Pats pre-exists their clear dominance so far this season, but I can't help thinking he's got a bit of the typical Boston area sports fan expectation that things are going to turn south at some point. He writes,
I think he's half-expecting Brady and Moss both to get injured this season and watch what would have been a 19-0 season turn into a legendary missed opportunity. It might even make his Levels of Losing with the next revision. The heavy use of "if" in that section suggests he's waiting for the other shoe to drop. When things seem way too good to be true, you know they'll turn to crap, soon enough, that's what it means to be a sports fan in New England (with the exception of the Pats recent success, and the 60s and 80s Celtics, and that one magical World Series run for the Sox).
(I can't talk, though, if I were to do an NBA preview column, I think I'd have to rely pretty heavily on the word "if" to describe my thoughts on the Lakers this season)
Seattle(3-1) at Pittsburgh(3-1) (Pittsburgh -6.0) BS Picks Seattle
Pittsburgh didn't perform well losing to Arizona last week, that can't be good for a team. Seattle has been winning, but they haven't really made any sort of impression this season. I think Pittsburgh will bounce back from a bad week last week and remember to get the ball in the endzone as well as play some defense. Pittsburgh has more talent than Seattle, and they're at home, so that settles that.
Jacksonville(2-1) at Kansas City(2-2) (Jacksonville -2.0) BS Picks Chiefs
I don't care about either of these franchises, but this is what's on TV, so I'm going to make a pick. KC are home underdogs for a reason, and Jax is coming off of a bye week which should be of some benefit (although if I checked the records since they've gone to the 17 week schedule, I might find that teams coming off of a bye playing teams who played the previous week do worse than normal cause of rust and too much time off, or not). Will be low scoring, whichever team pulls of the victory.
San Diego(1-3) at Denver(2-2) (San Diego +1.0) BS Picks San Diego
In Norv I trust. OK, not really, but San Diego just can't be as bad as they've been. It's not possible. They haven't lost any big players from last year's squad that had 11 players in the Pro Bowl. Are you telling me that Marty was that great of a coach and Norv is that bad of a coach? Don't answer that. Denver's been so-so this year, and even though they are at home, I think the Chargers are capable of digging deep inside themselves and eliminate the mistakes on offense that have cost them three ball games in a row (really 2 of 3, as nothing would have helped against New England). I just believe in San Diego a little more (despite all the evidence) than I do Denver at this point in the season.
Chicago(1-3) at Green Bay(4-0) (Chicago +3.0) BS Picks Green Bay
If Chicago would listen to my all Devin Hester all the time suggestion for their offense they'd be unstoppable, but they aren't ready to do something so radical. They've been terrible and they're going up against an undefeated Green Bay team at Lambeau, and yet I pick the Bears. Why? The Packers have no run game whatsoever, and against the Bears linebacker crew, that's going to be a big problem. Favre has avoided making crazy throws and kept the INTs way down compared to some of his gunslinger years, but he hasn't faced a defense like Chicago's yet this year. Chicago's offense just has to hold on to the football, and they'll be able to win this one. It's simple really, and yet that's proved impossible for them this season so far. But against a division rival, after getting embarrassed by Detroit, I think they'll turn things around.
Dallas(4-0) at Buffalo(1-3) (Dallas -10.0) BS Picks Dallas
It's early enough in the year so that the field in Buffalo won't be covered in ice and snow. Lucky for Dallas, but there is rain in the forecast, which might slowdown the Cowboys high powered offense a touch. Dallas will win this game, Buffalo is overmatched on both sides of the ball, but there's a small chance that Dallas will not score as much as they normally do if conditions are crappy. They may end up going up big early, and then letting Buffalo come back enough to beat the spread but not win the game. I hate it when road teams are favored by better than a TD. Chances are they'll score their usual 30+ and Buffalo won't get more than 13, so this pick should be safe.
Checking in with My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ (I've decided to start the process to register a trademark on the phrase, "My Nemesis Bill Simmons™", that's right, if you want to declare Mr. Simmons as your nemesis as well, I expect some recompense), his picks for week five aren't out yet, I'll update this when he gets around to it. Meanwhile, you can listen to this BS Report focusing on him and Cousin Sal guessing the lines on the Week Five matchups.
(and I may be exaggerating a bit about starting the process for registering the trademark on the phrase, "My Nemesis Bill Simmons™")
(also, didn't realize till I looked it up that it's UNLAWFUL to use ® unless you've officially registered your trademark with the proper agencies)
UPDATE: My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ doesn't make his picks till Friday, and the lines move a little bit between my picks on Wednesday, and his on Friday, I'm adjusting the post to reflect the current lines, and I'm including his picks right next to mine, to make figuring out our respective results easier. For his picks column this week he did an extensive break down of where all the NFL teams stand with respect to each other. It's a good read, I don't agree with all his ratings, but he gives good reasons for his rankings.
And in his breakdown of the Bears he has this, "And why didn't anyone mention the easiest possible fix for the Bears' offense, the one that was e-mailed to me 25 times last weekend ... namely, that they should just stick Devin Hester 20 yards behind the center and snap to him on every down?", I guess my suggestion about making Hester the "QB" wasn't unique.
My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ doesn't seem to follow his own advice when it comes to one pick. He's picking the Chiefs over Jax, even though he has Jacksonville 8th in his rankings and KC 26th. He's really giving that home crowd in KC a lot of credit.
And as a New England born and raised sports fan, his love for the Pats pre-exists their clear dominance so far this season, but I can't help thinking he's got a bit of the typical Boston area sports fan expectation that things are going to turn south at some point. He writes,
However you feel about the Pats, at the very least you have to admit Moss has catapulted them to another level and transformed Brady's career. Even during the three Super Bowl seasons, they never had a closer, a big-play guy who could knock the lead out of reach. Now they do. In all four victories, Moss scored the touchdown that put the game away. He also has given them a swagger that they've never had, an invincibility they desperately needed. If they can keep him on the field for five months, and if they can stay healthy, they're going to be nearly impossible to beat.
I think he's half-expecting Brady and Moss both to get injured this season and watch what would have been a 19-0 season turn into a legendary missed opportunity. It might even make his Levels of Losing with the next revision. The heavy use of "if" in that section suggests he's waiting for the other shoe to drop. When things seem way too good to be true, you know they'll turn to crap, soon enough, that's what it means to be a sports fan in New England (with the exception of the Pats recent success, and the 60s and 80s Celtics, and that one magical World Series run for the Sox).
(I can't talk, though, if I were to do an NBA preview column, I think I'd have to rely pretty heavily on the word "if" to describe my thoughts on the Lakers this season)
01 October 2007
RESULTS (Week Four) Weekly NFL Related Humiliation
What a wild weekend of football! Bet that cliche was uttered in nearly every broadcast across the country. Given all the upsets in college (and near upset of the USC Trojans) on Saturday, and the many surprising results in the NFL on Sunday, you had a week full of surprises.
As far as my picks went, got the early games, and blew it on the later games. San Diego defies explanation (beyond the obvious, Norv Turner should never be allowed to be head coach anywhere, ever, retroactively for all of time, if you had a time machine available, or some mystical influence were throwing you back in time, then you'd be doing the world a favor in convincing all GMs not to even think about promoting Norv Turner beyond 'offensive genius' as a coordinator status). Likewise, the Philadephia Eagles' inability to block the previously porous Giants defense also leaves me gobsmacked. On to the individual game breakdowns . . .
Oakland 35 Miami 17
Woohoo! The Raiders (2-2) destroyed the home team. Culpepper scored 5 times (3 with his legs (and knees), 2 with his arm) and I completely forgot to mention the revenge factor going into this game. Miami (0-4) is poised to win a bunch of meaningless games at the end of the season like they do every year. Once they're eliminated from playoff consideration, suddenly the 'Phins become unbeatable. Oakland, all the sudden has a fantastic running game. If Justin Fargas' performance in this game wasn't a fluke, then the Raiders might not only break .500 for the first time since their Superbowl season, but they might even win their suddenly crappy looking division. They are still a couple of levels in quality below Indianapolis and New England, but you might be able to consider them in the 2nd tier of AFC teams along with Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver and Jacksonville (right now formerly top tier teams like Baltimore and San Diego aren't even in the second tier of teams).
St. Louis 7 Dallas 35
Woohoo! Can't take much credit for calling this game right. St. Louis (0-4) has been hit by injuries, and a general lack of talent. Dallas (4-0) are clearly the class of the NFC right now, no other NFC team is close (with the possible exception of Green Bay). The Cowboys haven't been 4-0 since their last Superbowl winning team in 1995. This team isn't as good as that team, but with the state of the NFC at the moment, this team doesn't need to be that good to make it to the Superbowl (winning it all is a different story, though). We'll found out whether this team is for real or not when they play New England the week after next (assuming they don't have a let down when they travel to Buffalo next week).
Kansas City 30 San Diego 16
D'oh! San Diego (1-3) has already lost more regular season games than they did all of last year. Plus this loss was at home, something that hadn't happened to them all last year. This team has almost all the same talent as last year's squad, and yet they stink. All those fantasy football folks who were lucky enough to get the number one pick in their drafts and immediately jumped all over drafting LaDanian Tomlinson must be feeling really crappy about now. Serves them right for wasting their time with fantasy football. LT had his best game of the year, but it didn't matter. A -2 t.o. rating will screw up even the best teams, that's been the story in all 3 of these San Diego losses. If they win their next two games, they'll be in OK shape, if they lose either or both of their next two, their season is over. KC (2-2) is still a bit enigmatic, Huard is pretty awful, and Johnson is going to have to carry a huge load. They're going to win some close games, and lose a few more close games, I suspect, they are one of the many 7-9 or 9-7 teams making up the bulk of this league.
Philadelphia 3 NY Giants 16
D'oh! 12 sacks! 12 sacks!! 12 sacks!!! How do you give up 12 sacks!!!! You have a supposedly mobile QB in McNabb, but the Philadelphia (1-3) offensive line just fell apart in that game. Understatement of the week spoken by NY Giants' Defensive End Osi Umenyiora, "We knew we would eventually get some sacks. We have some of the best pass rushers in the league on this team. We put it all together today." I guess collecting six sacks in one week will make you say stuff like that. I still don't think the NY Giants are very good. Their defense went from giving up 97 points in their first 10 quarters to holding their opponents to 3 points in the last 6. Which team is this? I was certain their season was done at halftime last week, and they were working to get Coughlin fired, now who knows? As far as Philly, the loss of Westbrook makes them one dimensional, and extremely vulnerable, it's going to be a long season, good thing the Phillies made the playoffs, that takes some pressure off them for a few weeks.
New England 34 Cincinnati 13
Woohoo! Didn't take a football expert to pick the winner in this game (even against the spread). New England (4-0) are the best team in football right now, and Cincinnati (1-3) has talent, but are screwed with multiple injuries to their LB corps. Even if they were at full strength, wouldn't have mattered against the Pats. Brady did throw an INT, so maybe there is a sliver of hope for the rest of the league. Also, the two teams didn't combine for over 100 points as I half expected, so the Cincy defense has to take some pride in holding New England to their lowest point total of the season (34 instead of 38 like in the previous 3 games). There's a tiny chance that New England will look past Cleveland (and the big showdown in Dallas against the Cowboys on Oct 14th, circle your calendars) and forget to win next week. (but that might all be part of Belichick's master plan, to refocus the team, and get the distraction of going for a 19-0 season out of the way early, that guy's a genius, if they lose on Sunday, it will because he wanted them to)
This week's 3-2 performance brings my overall record to a still lousy 8-11-1, while my nemesis Bill Simmons has managed to match my 3-2 record for the week (on the picks we picked differently we split, I got Oakland right, he got NY Giants right), so he sits at a less sucky 11-8-1. I have been getting killed with these night games. My Sunday night record is 1-3, and my Monday night record is 1-2-1 (thanks to jumping on the New England bandwagon for this week's Monday night contest). So for day games I'm a less awful 6-6. I might look like I knew what I was doing if it wasn't for those Sunday and Monday night contests.
As far as my picks went, got the early games, and blew it on the later games. San Diego defies explanation (beyond the obvious, Norv Turner should never be allowed to be head coach anywhere, ever, retroactively for all of time, if you had a time machine available, or some mystical influence were throwing you back in time, then you'd be doing the world a favor in convincing all GMs not to even think about promoting Norv Turner beyond 'offensive genius' as a coordinator status). Likewise, the Philadephia Eagles' inability to block the previously porous Giants defense also leaves me gobsmacked. On to the individual game breakdowns . . .
Oakland 35 Miami 17
Woohoo! The Raiders (2-2) destroyed the home team. Culpepper scored 5 times (3 with his legs (and knees), 2 with his arm) and I completely forgot to mention the revenge factor going into this game. Miami (0-4) is poised to win a bunch of meaningless games at the end of the season like they do every year. Once they're eliminated from playoff consideration, suddenly the 'Phins become unbeatable. Oakland, all the sudden has a fantastic running game. If Justin Fargas' performance in this game wasn't a fluke, then the Raiders might not only break .500 for the first time since their Superbowl season, but they might even win their suddenly crappy looking division. They are still a couple of levels in quality below Indianapolis and New England, but you might be able to consider them in the 2nd tier of AFC teams along with Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver and Jacksonville (right now formerly top tier teams like Baltimore and San Diego aren't even in the second tier of teams).
St. Louis 7 Dallas 35
Woohoo! Can't take much credit for calling this game right. St. Louis (0-4) has been hit by injuries, and a general lack of talent. Dallas (4-0) are clearly the class of the NFC right now, no other NFC team is close (with the possible exception of Green Bay). The Cowboys haven't been 4-0 since their last Superbowl winning team in 1995. This team isn't as good as that team, but with the state of the NFC at the moment, this team doesn't need to be that good to make it to the Superbowl (winning it all is a different story, though). We'll found out whether this team is for real or not when they play New England the week after next (assuming they don't have a let down when they travel to Buffalo next week).
Kansas City 30 San Diego 16
D'oh! San Diego (1-3) has already lost more regular season games than they did all of last year. Plus this loss was at home, something that hadn't happened to them all last year. This team has almost all the same talent as last year's squad, and yet they stink. All those fantasy football folks who were lucky enough to get the number one pick in their drafts and immediately jumped all over drafting LaDanian Tomlinson must be feeling really crappy about now. Serves them right for wasting their time with fantasy football. LT had his best game of the year, but it didn't matter. A -2 t.o. rating will screw up even the best teams, that's been the story in all 3 of these San Diego losses. If they win their next two games, they'll be in OK shape, if they lose either or both of their next two, their season is over. KC (2-2) is still a bit enigmatic, Huard is pretty awful, and Johnson is going to have to carry a huge load. They're going to win some close games, and lose a few more close games, I suspect, they are one of the many 7-9 or 9-7 teams making up the bulk of this league.
Philadelphia 3 NY Giants 16
D'oh! 12 sacks! 12 sacks!! 12 sacks!!! How do you give up 12 sacks!!!! You have a supposedly mobile QB in McNabb, but the Philadelphia (1-3) offensive line just fell apart in that game. Understatement of the week spoken by NY Giants' Defensive End Osi Umenyiora, "We knew we would eventually get some sacks. We have some of the best pass rushers in the league on this team. We put it all together today." I guess collecting six sacks in one week will make you say stuff like that. I still don't think the NY Giants are very good. Their defense went from giving up 97 points in their first 10 quarters to holding their opponents to 3 points in the last 6. Which team is this? I was certain their season was done at halftime last week, and they were working to get Coughlin fired, now who knows? As far as Philly, the loss of Westbrook makes them one dimensional, and extremely vulnerable, it's going to be a long season, good thing the Phillies made the playoffs, that takes some pressure off them for a few weeks.
New England 34 Cincinnati 13
Woohoo! Didn't take a football expert to pick the winner in this game (even against the spread). New England (4-0) are the best team in football right now, and Cincinnati (1-3) has talent, but are screwed with multiple injuries to their LB corps. Even if they were at full strength, wouldn't have mattered against the Pats. Brady did throw an INT, so maybe there is a sliver of hope for the rest of the league. Also, the two teams didn't combine for over 100 points as I half expected, so the Cincy defense has to take some pride in holding New England to their lowest point total of the season (34 instead of 38 like in the previous 3 games). There's a tiny chance that New England will look past Cleveland (and the big showdown in Dallas against the Cowboys on Oct 14th, circle your calendars) and forget to win next week. (but that might all be part of Belichick's master plan, to refocus the team, and get the distraction of going for a 19-0 season out of the way early, that guy's a genius, if they lose on Sunday, it will because he wanted them to)
This week's 3-2 performance brings my overall record to a still lousy 8-11-1, while my nemesis Bill Simmons has managed to match my 3-2 record for the week (on the picks we picked differently we split, I got Oakland right, he got NY Giants right), so he sits at a less sucky 11-8-1. I have been getting killed with these night games. My Sunday night record is 1-3, and my Monday night record is 1-2-1 (thanks to jumping on the New England bandwagon for this week's Monday night contest). So for day games I'm a less awful 6-6. I might look like I knew what I was doing if it wasn't for those Sunday and Monday night contests.
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