Weekly NFL Related Humiliation: Week 3, The Picks

BS: Here

My picks (Home teams ALL CAPS)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-4) over Atlanta Falcons (BS ATL)
Tennessee Titans (+2.5) over NY JETS (BS TEN)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-6) over Miami Dolphins (BS MIA)
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1.5) over Indianapolis Colts (BS IND)
DALLAS COWBOYS (-9) over Carolina Panthers (BS CAR)

In what bizarro world do I pick the Pats and BS doesn't? This is the week that he goes down in flames, and I correct my losing ways. The Pats will put together a decent game, and Atlanta will struggle on the road, Pats will cover easily. The Titans will have no trouble in the Meadowlands as they beat a Jets team that will believe too much of its good press. The Chargers will roll, give the hometown fans something to cheer about, while Miami will have trouble running against the Bolts' defense. In the Sunday Night game, the Cardinals will beat up on the Colts and control this game from start to finish on both sides of the ball. On Monday night, Dallas, and Romo will settle down and play mistake free ball while romping against a crappy Panthers squad. Yes, the line is ridiculous in that game, but Dallas will still manage to put up over 30 points while Carolina will struggle to score more than 17, so that big spread isn't a problem.

Should be another entertaining week of football, so far this year, lots of excitement, especially in the night games. Don't think that trend will last this week as both night games will be routs, but maybe next week...

Also, it looks like the playoff picture is already taking shape. I have a feeling all five 2-0 teams in the NFC (NYG, MIN, ATL, NO, SF) are making the playoffs, and all four 0-2 teams are headed for awful seasons, so that leaves just one berth being fought over between Dallas, Philly, Green Bay, Chicago, and Arizona (DC and Seattle don't count, they aren't doing anything this season). Dallas and Philly are hurt by being in the best division in the NFC, so anything better than a 9-7 record will be a struggle, which will doom their wildcard shot. I think Green Bay or Chicago should put together a 10-6 season, which should give either of them the last wildcard, leaving the defending NFC Champs sitting home. So my prediction for playoff teams after two weeks of NFL action looks like this for the NFC

Division winners NYG, MIN, NO, SF with ATL and GB picking up the wildcard slots. I think NO will upset MIN in the Championship game making this Saints squad the first in team history to play in the Superbowl.

The AFC is slightly muddier. I think the Jets will continue to do what they're doing and win their division. Baltimore will rule in the AFC North, the Titans will turn things around while the Colts will sneak in with a wildcard, and the Chargers will easily win the AFC West with Denver snatching the other wildcard slot. Baltimore will earn homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and easily win both their games at home, against any possible opponents.

That sets up a classic Great Defense (Ravens) versuses a Great Offense (Saints) Superbowl this February. Should be fun. Current odds for Baltimore (according to Vegas Insider) are 15/2 to win the AFC, while New Orleans are at 10/1. Both those lines seem at odds with their performances so far this season. Strangely, New England remains the favorite to win the Superbowl at 4/1, even though they suck, while Pittsburgh is second choice at 15/2, and the Giants and Eagles are both 8/1 while the Chargers are 10/1. Both the Ravens at 18/1 and Saints at 20/1 aren't getting much Superbowl love from the oddsmakers at the moment, but that should change if they both keep posting impressive victories.

The Odds Makers are Odd . . .

Out of the four teams hosting a playoff game this NFL Wildcard Weekend, there's only one favored against their opponent in the betting line.

If you guessed that 8-8 San Diego (in their favor winners of their last 4 games and 7-1 against the spread at home this season) would be favored by 1 point over 12-4 Indianapolis (winners of their last 9 games, and arguably the best team in football over the past two months), you'd have been right.

NFL Picks: Conference Finals

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-14.0) O/U 47
How could the Pats lose? Short answer, they can't. Everything is against the Chargers in this one, they're coached by Norv Turner, LT and Gates aren't healthy, Rivers probably won't play, and they are a warm weather team on the road playing in what's predicted to be frigid conditions. No upset in the making here, but scoring might be surpressed because of the weather, so this could end up a 24-3 game. Even the Pats might have some trouble scoring in the expected conditions, plus the SD defense has been played well most of this season, but they are predictable, and weak against slot receivers, which means Welker will go wild, even as Moss is contained. So my picks, New England -14.0, and Under.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) O/U 41
If the conditions in the earlier New England game can be described as frigid, what can you call this game? Inhuman. 20 below zero when wind chill is factored in, that's insane. Bring on global warming, is all I can say. I don't see either offense operating at maximum effeciency in this game, but Favre has a lot more experience dealing with this insanity than Eli Manning, and that will make all the difference. Low scoring, possibly a shutout, I expect a 13-0 game here. So my picks, Green Bay -7.5, and Under.

And My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ has his picks, plus an epic lengthed mailbag.

NFL Playoff Picks: The Results, Divisional Playoffs Edition

2-2, not good, not bad, just meh. At least My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ also went 2-2.

Green Bay thumped Seattle as predicted, New England beat Jacksonville, controlled the game, but didn't bother covering the spread, those bastards. Guessed right about San Diego being able to keep the game close or even upset Indy. They won despite losing Rivers and LT, don't know how the Colts lost that one. Dallas could let a game slip away that they should have won. NY Giants still look like crap, Eli's stastitics were pretty awful, but they did enough to win.

The conference finals should be two huge blowouts, I don't see a banged up Chargers or a still crappy Giants doing anything on the road next week.

New England v Green Bay will bring double the normal insane level of hype you get in a Superbowl, probably will set ratings and ticket scalping records as well.

NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Playoffs Weekend Edition

This is it, this is the biggest weekend the NFL has to offer. This year, it might be different. The difference between the top two teams in each conference may be greater this year than any previous year, so the likelihood of any of the road teams upsetting a home team is a lot smaller than in the past.

You have to ignore everything that happened the rest of the season and only focus on the last few games if you want to convince yourself that a road team will win any of these games. Green Bay and Dallas are much better than Seattle and NY Giants and Indianapolis and New England are much better than San Diego and Jacksonville, so these picks should be a piece of cake.

Saturday's games
Seattle at Green Bay Green Bay -7.5 BS Picks Green Bay
Green Bay will handle Seattle with ease. The hype machine around Favre will get crazy heading into the NFC championship. Not much to analyze in this one. Holmgren's 'inside knowledge' about his old QB Favre won't make a difference in this one, instead the strong, young, fast Packers defense will make Seattle's offense look mediocre.

Jacksonville at New England New England -13.0 BS Picks New England
If it wasn't for the off week, I might be inclined to think that the Jaguars would at least cover the spread in this, or even maybe pull of an upset. But Belichick with an extra week of preparation is a scary thought, and New England will be scary in this game. They'll win, and win by over 20 points.

Sunday's games
San Diego at Indianapolis San Diego +8.0 BS Picks Indy
This would seem to be the least likely upset of the week, given the whole Norv Turner coaching the Chargers thing, but San Diego matches up well against Indy, has played them tough every time they've played them recently, and even if they don't win, they'll keep the game close. Rivers won't suck too much, LT will run wild, and Chris Chambers will pick up the slack caused by Antonio Gates going down with a dislocated toe. The Colts are an excellent team, but they won their Superbowl, and it's been awhile since there's been a repeat champion. Also, there's a big disparity in quality on special teams, San Diego has a huge edge there, and special teams play will be the deciding factor in this game.

NY Giants at Dallas Dallas -7.5 BS Picks NY Giants
This will be a massacre. NY Giants played well last week, but they are a terrible team with a decent defense that beat a weak playoff team last week. Eli will go back to looking awful, and Romo will play well and pick apart the aggressive Giants attack.

My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ has a lenghty post regarding the history and current state of the NFL Pregame show, it's not a bad read, could have used a little editing though, as it's pretty long. Also, in the same post are his picks, we agree on both Saturday games, and disagree on both Sunday games, he's going 2-2, and I'm going 4-0.

NFL Pick Results: Wild Card Weekend

Ouch. My picks weren't insensible, it was the results that were senseless.

Eli Manning figuring out how to win a playoff game? Never gonna happen. Seattle is really, really good? Can't be. The Pittsburgh game was a push, but it seemed like they were going to complete the comeback and make me look a bit smarter. At least San Diego played well and saved me from a weekend without any successful picks.

So I went 1-2-1 while My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ went 2-1-1. He was smart to ignore the 'team on a roll' aspect of the Seattle-Washington game, and picked according to home field, talent, and coaching (Gibbs was outcoached by Holmgren in that game).

Eli made 'the face', and yet his team still won going away. Tampa Bay just weren't very good.

I'm looking forward to next week's match-ups, though. Will New England roll, or will they be tight fighting history and a solid Jacksonville team? Will San Diego build off of their win at home and have success on the road against a beatable Indianapolis team (one they beat earlier this year)? Will the Cowboys be ready for the Giants, a team they handled easily twice this year, or will NY get the upset? Will Holmgren be able to bedevil the QB he coached to two Superbowl victories and beat Green Bay on the frozen tundra? Will I be able to make up for this week's miserable showing and go 4-0 with my picks this upcoming weekend?

Only time will tell.

NFL Playoff Picks: Week One --- Wild Card Weekend

Four games this week, it's Wild Card Weekend. Next week is the best week the NFL has to offer, but this is a close 3rd or 4th (1st is next week, 2nd is the Conference championships, and 3rd or 4th is the Superbowl itself depending on the matchup).

Saturday's games
Washington at Seattle (Washington +3.5)
Seattle is excellent at home, but Washington has been playing very well lately, and I think that solid play will continue. This isn't a sensible pick, it's more of a gut feeling pick.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh +2.0)
Jacksonville has been playing pretty well, and beat Pittsburgh once this season already (in Pittsburgh). The field will be a mess, the score will be low, and I think Pittsburgh has more experience in these situations and that will help them prevail in this contest.

Sunday's games
New York Giants at Tampa Bay (Tampa Bay -2.5)
In Garcia I trust? Not really, but the NY Giants are a pretty awful team (their performance against the Pats was an abberation) an awful lot of the time, despite their 10-6 record. Tampa Bay will play well at home, and win this game handily.

Tennessee at San Diego (San Diego -9.0)
In Norv Turner I trust? Not even close, but the Chargers are playing well, the Titans aren't, and are unsettled at QB. The Chargers should dominate this game from both sides of the ball, and the Chargers defense will bottle up the Brown and White show while the Chargers offense will see LT running wild. Should be a blowout.

Saturday should be a couple of low scoring, but close contests, while Sunday will be a day of blowouts. Home teams ought to do pretty well this weekend, I think Washington is the only road team with a chance at winning. If I had to arrange these picks in order of confidence I'd have them ordered as follows: 1.SD 2.TB 3.DC 4.Pitt.

My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ also makes his picks, after a long explanation of why he sucked so bad this year, and why he won't suck equally hard while picking the playoff games the rest of the way. We disagree on both Saturday games, and agree on both Sunday games, most likely we'll both go 2-2.

The Humiliation Returns . . .

Tomorrow, I'll put together some NFL picks, the past few weeks have been pretty awful as far as games worth watching, last week only two games pitted two teams with winning records. If you had looked at the Week 15 match-ups before week one, you probably would have guessed that both teams in the Jacksonville at Pittsburgh game would have winning records, but if you say that you would have also guessed the only other both teams over .500 game would be Buffalo at Cleveland, then I call you a stinking liar.

So I'll be daring and pick all the games, from Thursday to Monday, no matter how unwatchable any particular game may be (woohoo! 14-0 New England v 1-13 Miami, that's a classic in the making, right there), then I'll give my picks throughout the playoffs, of course.

Looks like my earlier playoff predictions are already way off. I was pretty close on the AFC, though I didn't predict continued success for Cleveland and a Pittsburgh mini-collapse. Cleveland and Pittsburgh both have winnable games the last two weeks, so they should both finish 11-5, which would mean Pittsburgh wins the division, and Cleveland earns one of the wildcard slots, along with Jacksonville, leaving Tennessee out of the playoffs. New England and Indianapolis have already locked up the first round byes.

On the NFC side, Green Bay and Dallas both will earn the byes, with Dallas probably still holding on to the overall home field advantage. Tampa Bay did rise to the top of the NFC South (no real surprise), Seattle has looked very solid again, and Arizona let a golden opportunity to make the playoffs slip away with a few late losses. Detroit were 6-2 at one point and look poised to finish 6-10, while the NY Giants may still hold on to the last wildcard, but they'll get thumped in the first round of the playoffs, so it won't matter. As far as who the other playoff team, who knew Minnesota would rise to the top of that mess? They were 3-6 when I wrote that post, and their season was done, now they are 8-6 with their own destiny in their hands. New Orleans still may knock the Giants out, and Minnesota looked shaky on Monday, even though they beat the Bears, so they could still finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. They've been getting some Pittsburgh of '05 comparisons as the hot team that sneaks into the playoffs by winning a bunch of games late in the season, then doing damage as a 6 seed, but Tavaris Jackson is no Ben Roethlisberger. Adrian Peterson is a hell of a running back, but Seattle or Tampa Bay both have the kind of defense that can keep him bottled up, so I don't expect them to go on an unexpected playoff run.

It still looks like it's probably going to come down to a New England-Dallas rematch (with the same result as the regular season contest), assuming Romo's thumb isn't too seriously damaged, if his thumb is messed up, then look for a New England-Green Bay contest with Favre winning the Superbowl MVP even as New England wins the game.

Maybe if San Diego puts everything together for one magical game, they have the talent to thwart New England, but expecting a Norv Turner team to out-prepare and out-hustle, and out-execute a Bill Belichick team in a playoff game, strains credulity.

Let's Talk Playoffs (NFL Edition)

Week 10 has passed, and the playoffs are starting to come into focus in the NFL. Every team has played 9 games, there are no more bye weeks, and some of the division races are already over.

In the AFC, it's pretty easy to figure out who 5 of the 6 playoff teams will be, with the remaining playoff spot to go to whichever AFC West team manages to blow the fewest games the rest of the season.

New England and Pittsburgh are locks to win their divisions, while the AFC South is a three way battle between Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. All three of those teams should make the playoffs, and I think San Diego should still emerge from the pile of mediocre teams in the AFC West and win their division, or Norv Turner could do what Norv Turner does best and through horrendous play calling manage to get this talented team to miss the playoffs all together. In that scenario, then Denver is more likely to emerge as the winner of that crappy division over Kansas City. What remains is the battle for playoff seeding, with New England a sure thing as the 1 seed, and Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and maybe even Jacksonville fighting it out for the other team to get a bye in the first round of the playoffs.

None if it matters, though, it will come down to New England hosting whichever AFC team survives to the end to meet them in the AFC Championship game, and barring injuries will crush them.

The NFC is largely irrelevant, but more intriguing as more teams have a real shot at making the playoffs. The NFC is irrelevant, cause unless the Superbowl ends up being a fluky game, New England will crush any opposition in front of it, and more intriguing cause any one of 9 teams has a real shot at representing the NFC in the Superbowl (though, Dallas and Green Bay have to be considered strong favorites).

Dallas and Green Bay are in, and will win their divisions easily, but each will press the other to go for best record to host a potential NFC Championship game match up between the two. The other two divisions are up in the air, with Tampa Bay looking like the best of a bad bunch of NFC South teams, and either Seattle or Arizona emerging from the craptacular NFC West. Detroit and NY Giants have the inside track on the wildcard, but both teams are capable of collapsing the rest of the season, and the likes of Carolina, New Orleans, Chicago, Philadelphia, could all finish in a 5 way tie at 9-7 or 8-8 for the two wild card spots. Should make the last two weeks of the season a headache with regards to tie breaking scenarios.

It's possible with Dallas and Green Bay coasting at the end of the regualr season, and the other teams all struggling to make the playoffs, that the struggle will help focus those teams come the 2nd week of the playoffs, whereas a rusty Dallas and Green Bay could get upset at home when they host the survivors. It's not entirely inconceivable to imagine that Arizona could end up being the first team to play in a Superbowl in their home stadium (that scenario remains highly unlikely, but if Warner stays healthy somehow, and their defense continues to play well, they are as good as any other team in the NFC).

It would be a good story, Kurt Warner leading an Arizona team to an improbable victory against a previously unbeaten New England team that ran up 20+ point victories in its 2 previous playoff games. Cut to reaction shots of '72 Dolphin players when they realize they remain the only undefeated champions in the Superbowl era, and cut to a dour looking Belichick wondering how the hell their perfect season could be snatched away in the last game.

Either that, or New England will have a rematch against Dallas and pound them again, winning by 40 points and setting all sorts of scoring records in a lopsided game.

But anyway, here's my full prediction for the playoff seedings:

AFC
1) New England
2) Pittsburgh
3) Indianapolis
4) San Diego
5) Tennessee
6) Jacksonville

First round, Jacksonville upsets Indianapolis, San Diego beats Tennessee. 2nd Round, New England trounces Jacksonville, Pittsburgh manhandles San Diego. AFC Championship New England beats Pittsburgh by better than 3 TDs.

NFC
1)Dallas
2)Green Bay
3)New Orleans
4)Arizona
5)Tampa Bay
6)NY Giants

First Round, New Orleans beats NY Giants, Arizona beats Tampa Bay. 2nd Round, Dallas is upset by Arizona, Green Bay beats New Orleans. NFC Championship Arizona upsets Green Bay on the "Frozen Tundra"

Superbowl XLII in Arizona
New England 61 Arizona 20

RESULTS Superbowl Humiliation

The original prognosticatory post, here.

So that was Superbowl XLI, an emphatic MEH! from me is all you'll get.

Rex Grossman was disappointingly the Bizarro Rex Grossman in the second half (or is that the real Rex Grossman, and the Rex Grossman who plays well the Bizarro Rex Grossman?).

Congratulations to Indianapolis, I ain't going to mention the silliness about certain biographical peculiarities regarding the two head coaches, cause that whole line of commentary has been ridiculously overblown. But I will link this Ed Driscoll piece touching on that (tangentially), cause I think he makes some good points.

I was satisfactorily incorrect regarding the outcome of this game.

I won't be moving to Las Vegas and wagering real money on the NFL's 2007 season, that's for sure (go Saints!!!, I'm moving up my 2010 prediction to 2008, Superbowl XLII, Saints 45 Titans 34)

As far as the specific wagers I pretended to make, here's the breakdown;

Billy Joel, Under 1m44s WRONG, I'm not going to bother to check whether I was right or wrong on this one, officially (BODOG doesn't give links to results, if I'd known that, I'd have gone somewhere else to find crazy bets to fake bet). I'm assuming it was over, it seemed eternal, his performance of the anthem. Breaking out the piano is what did me in on this pick, I expected him to go a capella. The (seemingly obligatory) flyby lost some of its impact given the weather conditions. $125 lost

First Challenge, Indianapolis CORRECT, Dungy threw the red flag first, so that's one for me $215 collected ($115 wager + $100 won)

Longest Punt Return, Indianapolis CORRECT, As I predicted, they kicked away from Hester consistently (plus the Colts barely punted in this game, they were too busy scoring), Chicago's only return 3 yards, Indianapolis' longest return 18 yards. $230 collected ($100 wager + $130 won)

Chicago Will Score in Every Quarter WRONG, Oh well, they scored in every odd quarter, does that count for something? $100 lost

Chicago -10.5 WRONG (and then some). Chicago's crappiness on offense killed the ability of Chicago's defense to stop Indianapolis' onslaught. Time of possession was grossly lopsided, and a defense can not stay on field for such long stretches and be expected to succeed. Of course, the vaunted Chicago defense didn't help themselves as they allowed some 3rd and long conversions that would have ended drives. But twice in the game there were turnovers on consecutive plays (Indy turned over the ball, only to have Chicago give it right back up on the very next play from scrimmage). That's got to be demoralizing, and when you consider that Indianapolis spent nearly the entire game in the scoring half of the field and the Chicago offense handed the ball over 4 times in the game, you have to consider the 29 points allowed to be an incredible display of defensive prowess. Had Chicago capitalized on their shocking opening kick off return and had done some more damage in the 1st quarter, the rest of the game might have played differently. But there were too many passes thrown up for grabs by Grossman, and on top of that he botched the snap twice on consecutive plays that utterly destroyed a promising drive in the 3rd quarter. It was raining, yes, but Manning was dealing with the same wet ball, and he managed to settle down after throwing an early pick. In summary, grrrr, arrgggghhh!!! $500 lost

So out of that imaginary $1040 wager, I still managed to keep $445 for a total loss of $555. Last time I (imaginarily) bet on Billy Joel (or for a Rex Grossman QB'd team, unless he gets a brain transplant like the one Brett Favre underwent when he was traded from Atlanta to Green Bay).

As far as a commercials post, they mostly sucked. Nothing that impressive, certainly no acid-tripping Busby Berkeley inspired BK madness, this time around. So I think I'll forgo that particular aspect of Superbowl recapping, other than to agree with all the folks telling this overwrought idiot to take a chill pill.

Too many of the commercials explored territory already explored. The FedEx ad, was the same add as the funnier Dinosaur/Cavemen ad from last year, but in space, and the Bud ad with the Boxer/Pitbull mix dreaming dreams of Dalmatian-hood was a rip-off on their Clydesdale wannabe donkey. The Sierra Mist ads were less funny, and the Snickers man-kiss add was also not shocking, not funny, just kind of lame. The Career Builder ads were cinematic, but overdone. I did like the new series of Toyota Tundra truck ads, those were some impressive stunts. So I'm not bothering with the screen-caps as there was nothing visually arresting or particularly caption worthy in any of the ads (I might have been able to think of something for the Coke ads, which were good, but they've been showing those in movie theatres for months, so they've lost any possible impact for me).

As far as Prince, I thought he was fantastic, but I can understand those who thought otherwise. The Purple One is a true showman, though, and a fantastic guitarist, and if a man can't hump his guitar suggestively while playing Purple Rain, when can he? And those dancers in their stiletto heels on the rain-soaked stage, I'm truly impressed that neither of them took a tumble.

OK, A couple screen shot, just to show off my **HD**-ness (on a separate post, for my own ease).

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Playoffs!!! Superbowl XLI Edition)

It's finally here, the big game, the last one of the season. Pitting the two teams that went deepest into the season undefeated, yet at times both teams looked unimpressive as they piled up their victories.

Nevertheless, we have Indianapolis versus Chicago in a game pitting a questionable offense versus a solid defense and vice versa.

If both teams play like they did last week, it will be an excellent game. The odds of that happening . . .?

(7:1)

Speaking of odds, betting on the Superbowl is a crazed frenzy where sane people do insane things with their money (nobody should ever bet real money on a coin flip, ever).

(yes I know there were two evers in that last parenthetical phrase)

The odds that Prince kicks all sorts of ass and turns in the best halftime show in the history of big time Superbowl halftime shows . . .?

(1:20)

(almost a sure thing)

As far as the humiliation, I'll pick the winner (against the spread), the over under, and a select group of those ridiculous props that crop up during this week at the various casinos and gambling sites.

Ridiculous prop lines are from Bodog as of 11:45pm ET 01/31/07

Chicago Bears v. Indianapolis Colts (-7) (o/u 48.5) Chicago +7 Over 48.5
I'm not sure why I'm leaning towards Chicago in this game, maybe it's just cause I like rooting for the underdog, and though the Colts clearly have the greater potential to put together an excellent game on both sides of the ball, I suspect that they won't. Also against this pick is that Chicago is much more likely to screw up either on offense or defense and turn in a terrible performance. But I think Grossman will be smart enough to not lose this game and given that both teams play the Cover 2 on defense, will get lots of practice seeing the same kind of defense that he'll see on Sunday during the week. Indianapolis' sudden improvement in stopping the run during their playoff run is an aberation I believe, and they'll be killed by Chicago's run game. Peyton Manning will play well, but he's not going to be able to do it alone, and if they're playing from behind, he'll get sacked, hurried, and knocked down too often to be able to engineer a comeback. If Chicago manages to jump out to an early lead of 10 or more points, I expect the Colts to crumble rather than rise to the occasion as they did against New England. It's just a hunch, not based on stats, recent performance, or anything that resembles reason. If Chicago loses, it will be a blowout, though. I suspect this game won't be close whichever team wins.

On to the crazy bets (I'll choose from 5 of these, just for kicks with a total budget of a completely fictional $1040)

1) How long will Billy Joel take to sing the National Anthem? o/u 1m44s (yes, that's a real wager available). Tough call, but I think he's not going to do a long drawn out version, so I'm going with the under on this one. UNDER 1m44s $125 laid to win $100

2) Team to Use Their Coaches Challenge First? Another one where it could go either way, but I believe Dungy is a big fan of throwing the red bean bag, so I'm going to go with Indy on this one. IND $115 laid to win $100

3) Team to Have the Longest Punt Return? The obvious choice would be to go with Chicago given that they have the electrifying Hester returning punts, and has scored multiple times, but because of this the Colts will avoid kicking towards him and settle for shorter, easier to cover punts, so Indy is more likely to have the longest return despite having less talented return ment. IND $100 laid to win $130

4) Will the Bears Score in Every Quarter? The line on this wager is heavily against the Bears pulling off this feat. To win $100 you need to wager $310, while if you bet $100 on yes, you win $215 dollars. This is a suckers bet if there ever was one, but I'm a sucker and I say YES. YES $100 to win $215

5) Alternative Game Line Chicago -3.5 points? These are interesting wagers, by changing the line you can alter greatly how much money you have to lay, or how much you get back. Since I have a hunch that Chicago will win outright, it would make sense to forego the points pick and instead go with either a money line play (no points, but you lay more money on the favorite to win $100 compared to the underdog). Most of the bets available on the Alternate Game Line bets are for a massive lopsided Colts victory, this is the only line favoring the Bears. Since I'm so confident in the Bears, and since I'm not betting actual money, I'd go ahead and drop a whopping $500 on Da Bears to win by better than 10.5 points for a potential profit of $2500. Hard to pass up a 5:1 shot. BEARS -10.5 $500 to win $2500

If I'm right on all these, I'm going to hate myself for not wagering real money, here's hoping I'm spectacularly wrong!

If you're wondering, yes, I'll be doing a commercial post of some kind, and my screen caps will be *New* and *Improved* and in *HD*!!!!

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Playoffs!!! Conference Championships)

It's the big time now. Four teams, two advance, two wonder what might have been. In some ways it's hard to pick for or against any of the four teams left. New Orleans have the best story, but the worst secondary. Chicago were tough early, struggled late, and barely beat a so-so Seattle team last week. Indianapolis suddenly has the best defense in the playoffs, but have struggled on offense (go figure). And then there's New England, I still don't believe they've won three Superbowls recently, there's no there there as far as I'm concerned, but then you look at the record of Brady and Belichick in big games, and you get scared for the Colts, even if they are at home.

Since there's only two games, I'll open myself up for extra humiliation and pick the over/under as well as the winner versus the spread.

New Orleans at Chicago (-2.0) o/u 43 Chicago -2.0, under 43
This will be a methodical dismantling of the Saints. New Orleans is 'America's Team' for the moment, but Chicago gets them at home in sub-40 degree weather. It's hard to believe that Chicago would lose this game at home, and the New Orleans secondary has been beaten deep too often to have confidence in their ability to cause trouble for Grossman. He had a much improved game last week, and ought to remain confident enough to put enough points on the board early to leave it to his defense to hold on against the Saints' formidable offensive attack. I'd be happy to be wrong about Chicago winning this game, but I think the feel good story that is New Orleans ends on Sunday in a 24-10 game. Each ESPN 'expert' picked New Orleans, so that cinches it, it'll be Chicago for sure.

New England at Indianapolis (-3.0) o/u 48 Indianapolis -3.0, over 48

Peyton Manning hasn't played well yet in the playoffs, but Brady hasn't been all that great either. Both teams have beat good teams to get this far, and both teams have weaknesses that the other team can take advantage of. I would imagine that the Colts are hungrier for this trip to the Superbowl than the Pats, and Peyton has to prove that he's not only the best QB statistically of his generation, but that he can rise to the challenge in a big game (which so far, he's proven the opposite). New England has had a way of winning games that they should have lost this decade, but this week the magic runs out. I expect a high score from both teams, but with the home team prevailing in a 45-34 battle (poor Adam Vinatieri won't get to beat his old team in the closing seconds).

RESULTS (Divisional Weekend) Weekly NFL Related Humiliation

Ouch.

Original post here.

Indianapolis 15 Baltimore 6 Baltimore -4
Doh! The Ravens defense played well, as expected, but the Indianapolis defense might have proved that the previous week's success v. Kansas City may not have been a fluke. Dungy was hired cause he was a 'Defensive' coach, and Indianapolis will get to host the AFC Championship game. The Ravens offense might have been more terrible than the Indy defense was good, however.

Philadelphia 24 New Orleans 27 New Orleans -5.5
Doh! Congrats to the New Orleans Saints (but boo! for not covering the spread). They did enough to win, and controlled the clock and the game when it counted. Payton has been the best play-caller in the league this year, and with their weapons on offense, they'll give Chicago all they can handle. Philly played better than they should have, but they couldn't put together enough drives to win. The Saints offense is very vulnerable to the big play, but luckily, Rex Grossman is as likely to throw the ball into a CBs hands as he is to a WRs hands on the deep ball.

Seattle 24 Chicago 27(OT) Seattle +8.5
Woohoo! The only game I picked correctly against the spread. Was a game that Seattle could have won, but came up short. Was I perplexed as to why they didn't run Alexander between the tackles more often, given that he made 8-12 yards on most of his carries? You betcha. Chicago won, will host the NFC Championship, and look ripe for an upset. Also, it's well past time that the NFL adopt the NCAA OT system. Exciting game, anyway.

New England 24 San Diego 21 San Diego -4.5
Doh! San Diego got Schottenheimered!!! Brady threw more interceptions than TDs, but put his team in position to go ahead when it counted, while San Diego mismanaged the clock at the end and were forced into a poor field goal attempt to tie the game. A great game by LT was wasted, and his tantrum about the celebration was out of character, but emotions run high in the playoffs. If you don't want the visitors to celebrate on your field, then take care of business and beat them. San Diego's sole loss at home came when it counted most. Go ahead and laugh it up this week Mr. Cottage, I still don't believe in the Pats (not that I feel so confident about Indy, either).

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Playoffs!!! Divisional Weekend)

The NFL is down to their 'elite eight', time to pick the winners and the losers (at least as far as the spread is concerned).

SATURDAY

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-4.0) Baltimore -4.0
A blow out in the making. Peyton Manning is going to look like his brother in this game (and that ain't good). The Ravens defense will pound the Colts offense into submission, and McNair will lead the Ravens offense to the end zone with enough regularity so that the final score won't be close. Ex-Cleveland will trounce Ex-Baltimore.

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-5.5) New Orleans -5.5
Sean Payton, best coach in the league whose last name doesn't start with "B"? The Saints creativity on offense will keep the blitzing Eagles defense guessing, and Bush will break at least one big play, if not two or three. The Saints defense hasn't gotten as much credit for the Saints success as they deserve, but they'll finally expose Jeff Garcia as being Jeff Garcia while bottling up Westbrook. If Garcia is forced to win a game, rather than to keep from losing one, the Eagles are in big trouble. In other words, the Eagles are in big trouble.

SUNDAY

Seattle at Chicago (-8.5) Seattle +8.5
Chicago is vulnerable, and deeply flawed right now as a team. Their defense has not been as invincible as they were at the beginning of the season, and their offense is easily the worst in the playoffs. Seattle has more of a recent history of success within the playoffs, and they have a coach who knows how to get it done. Chicago's last playoff game was their fiasco against Carolina where they allowed Steve Smith to beat them and didn't adjust their game plan to prevent their opponents best player from making them look bad. They may win this game, despite all this, given that Seattle has plenty of flaws of their own, but they won't win by more than a touchdown, so even if I'm not confident that the Seahawks can pull of the upset, I am confident that they can cover the spread.

New England at San Diego (-4.5) San Diego -4.5
The hardest game to pick this week. New England is playing very well together, but San Diego has been the best team in the league, and they have the record to prove it. Two excellent defenses will be trying to stop two excellent offenses. Two veteran coaches will be trying to out guess the other veteran coach. Belichick has a much better record in big games compared to Schottenheimer (Coach B 12-2 3 Superbowl rings v. Coach S 5-12 0 Superbowl rings, hasn't won a playoff game since 1993), and Tom Brady is as close to John Elway as you'll get in the league right now (if anyone can put together a 'Drive II' against a Schottenheimer team, it's Brady), but San Diego's defense is pretty fearsome, and they have LT on offense which is a dimension that New England lacks and will have trouble countering on defense.

I think Saturday will be a day of blowouts, while Sunday could be pretty interesting, but nothing is certain until the games are actually played. Ask 100 folks on Sunday what they thought would happen in the NCAA Championship game, and I don't think you'd get more than 2-3 that would have expected a Florida blowout.

One thing's for sure, all the folks assigned to holding the snaps for point afters and field goals probably did some extra practice this week.

RESULTS (Wildcard Weekend) Weekly NFL Related Humiliation

Original pick post here.

Should I be trite and write, "wildcard weekend was wild, indeed!"?

(don't answer that)

Kansas City 8 Indianapolis 23 Kansas City (+7.0)
Doh! The play calling on offense from KC was questionable. They did not make an attempt to enforce their will on the Indianapolis defense, and paid for it. Indianapolis had an excellent game defensively (so-so offensively), but it's hard to accept the huge transformation from the worst team against the run to a hard tackling run stopping juggernaut. The Ravens will eat this team alive. KC lost this game more than Indy won it.

Dallas 20 Seattle 21 Dallas (Dallas +3.0)
Woohoo! It's a subdued woohoo, really. Dallas had the game won, and it slipped through Romo's fingers. Great game to watch, though. Exciting finish, didn't work out for the Cowboys, but at least they covered the spread, and that's what's really important. Seattle showed flashes of the team that made it to last year's Superbowl, and if Grossman continues to struggle, could upset Chicago next week.

NY Jets 16 New England 37 (New England -8.0)
Woohoo! New England looked impressive in victory and countered everything the Jets tried to do on both sides of the ball. The hug seems to be big news, liked the way Belichick muscled the photographers out of the way to get at Mangini. New England played efficiently on both sides of the ball, and Brady had an excellent game. It will be much harder to look this good in sunny San Diego next week, though.

NY Giants 20 Philadephia 23 (NY Giants +7.0)
Woohoo! Another game where the losing team covered the spread. Neither team looked impressive, and after giving up a touchdown after having the Giants in 2nd and 30 on their game tying drive, it looked like Philly was in trouble. They pulled things together, gave their kicker a chance to win the game for them, and he came through. I'm still not buying Jeff Garcia as a QB to lead this team to playoff greatness. New Orleans ought to be able to end the Eagles' playoff run next week.

I was a respectable 3-1 against the spread, and would have been 4-0 if KC had used their advantages over Indy better, but it's a lot easier to coach from a keyboard then it is from the sidelines.