31 January 2007

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Playoffs!!! Superbowl XLI Edition)

It's finally here, the big game, the last one of the season. Pitting the two teams that went deepest into the season undefeated, yet at times both teams looked unimpressive as they piled up their victories.

Nevertheless, we have Indianapolis versus Chicago in a game pitting a questionable offense versus a solid defense and vice versa.

If both teams play like they did last week, it will be an excellent game. The odds of that happening . . .?

(7:1)

Speaking of odds, betting on the Superbowl is a crazed frenzy where sane people do insane things with their money (nobody should ever bet real money on a coin flip, ever).

(yes I know there were two evers in that last parenthetical phrase)

The odds that Prince kicks all sorts of ass and turns in the best halftime show in the history of big time Superbowl halftime shows . . .?

(1:20)

(almost a sure thing)

As far as the humiliation, I'll pick the winner (against the spread), the over under, and a select group of those ridiculous props that crop up during this week at the various casinos and gambling sites.

Ridiculous prop lines are from Bodog as of 11:45pm ET 01/31/07

Chicago Bears v. Indianapolis Colts (-7) (o/u 48.5) Chicago +7 Over 48.5
I'm not sure why I'm leaning towards Chicago in this game, maybe it's just cause I like rooting for the underdog, and though the Colts clearly have the greater potential to put together an excellent game on both sides of the ball, I suspect that they won't. Also against this pick is that Chicago is much more likely to screw up either on offense or defense and turn in a terrible performance. But I think Grossman will be smart enough to not lose this game and given that both teams play the Cover 2 on defense, will get lots of practice seeing the same kind of defense that he'll see on Sunday during the week. Indianapolis' sudden improvement in stopping the run during their playoff run is an aberation I believe, and they'll be killed by Chicago's run game. Peyton Manning will play well, but he's not going to be able to do it alone, and if they're playing from behind, he'll get sacked, hurried, and knocked down too often to be able to engineer a comeback. If Chicago manages to jump out to an early lead of 10 or more points, I expect the Colts to crumble rather than rise to the occasion as they did against New England. It's just a hunch, not based on stats, recent performance, or anything that resembles reason. If Chicago loses, it will be a blowout, though. I suspect this game won't be close whichever team wins.

On to the crazy bets (I'll choose from 5 of these, just for kicks with a total budget of a completely fictional $1040)

1) How long will Billy Joel take to sing the National Anthem? o/u 1m44s (yes, that's a real wager available). Tough call, but I think he's not going to do a long drawn out version, so I'm going with the under on this one. UNDER 1m44s $125 laid to win $100

2) Team to Use Their Coaches Challenge First? Another one where it could go either way, but I believe Dungy is a big fan of throwing the red bean bag, so I'm going to go with Indy on this one. IND $115 laid to win $100

3) Team to Have the Longest Punt Return? The obvious choice would be to go with Chicago given that they have the electrifying Hester returning punts, and has scored multiple times, but because of this the Colts will avoid kicking towards him and settle for shorter, easier to cover punts, so Indy is more likely to have the longest return despite having less talented return ment. IND $100 laid to win $130

4) Will the Bears Score in Every Quarter? The line on this wager is heavily against the Bears pulling off this feat. To win $100 you need to wager $310, while if you bet $100 on yes, you win $215 dollars. This is a suckers bet if there ever was one, but I'm a sucker and I say YES. YES $100 to win $215

5) Alternative Game Line Chicago -3.5 points? These are interesting wagers, by changing the line you can alter greatly how much money you have to lay, or how much you get back. Since I have a hunch that Chicago will win outright, it would make sense to forego the points pick and instead go with either a money line play (no points, but you lay more money on the favorite to win $100 compared to the underdog). Most of the bets available on the Alternate Game Line bets are for a massive lopsided Colts victory, this is the only line favoring the Bears. Since I'm so confident in the Bears, and since I'm not betting actual money, I'd go ahead and drop a whopping $500 on Da Bears to win by better than 10.5 points for a potential profit of $2500. Hard to pass up a 5:1 shot. BEARS -10.5 $500 to win $2500

If I'm right on all these, I'm going to hate myself for not wagering real money, here's hoping I'm spectacularly wrong!

If you're wondering, yes, I'll be doing a commercial post of some kind, and my screen caps will be *New* and *Improved* and in *HD*!!!!

4 comments:

Icepick said...

The Bears will win because Peyton Manning is a mailbox head.

SippicanCottage said...

icepick is indeed correct. manning is a mailbox headed, double-wide trailer park hayseed statmonger lummox.

i never bet on sports. but i bet on the super bowl. i got a fantastic prop bet: 30:1 odds on 70 points.

if the buckethead is ahead by four touchdowns, he'll still try to throw for four more instead of eating clock. rex grossman is an outhouse on fire. he'll score points in bunches; for one team or another, it doesn't seem to make any difference to him. a four yard run is worth forty yards against the colts d.

i can't lose. i'm rooting for everybody, all the time. go________!
score again!

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