11 January 2008

NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Playoffs Weekend Edition

This is it, this is the biggest weekend the NFL has to offer. This year, it might be different. The difference between the top two teams in each conference may be greater this year than any previous year, so the likelihood of any of the road teams upsetting a home team is a lot smaller than in the past.

You have to ignore everything that happened the rest of the season and only focus on the last few games if you want to convince yourself that a road team will win any of these games. Green Bay and Dallas are much better than Seattle and NY Giants and Indianapolis and New England are much better than San Diego and Jacksonville, so these picks should be a piece of cake.

Saturday's games
Seattle at Green Bay Green Bay -7.5 BS Picks Green Bay
Green Bay will handle Seattle with ease. The hype machine around Favre will get crazy heading into the NFC championship. Not much to analyze in this one. Holmgren's 'inside knowledge' about his old QB Favre won't make a difference in this one, instead the strong, young, fast Packers defense will make Seattle's offense look mediocre.

Jacksonville at New England New England -13.0 BS Picks New England
If it wasn't for the off week, I might be inclined to think that the Jaguars would at least cover the spread in this, or even maybe pull of an upset. But Belichick with an extra week of preparation is a scary thought, and New England will be scary in this game. They'll win, and win by over 20 points.

Sunday's games
San Diego at Indianapolis San Diego +8.0 BS Picks Indy
This would seem to be the least likely upset of the week, given the whole Norv Turner coaching the Chargers thing, but San Diego matches up well against Indy, has played them tough every time they've played them recently, and even if they don't win, they'll keep the game close. Rivers won't suck too much, LT will run wild, and Chris Chambers will pick up the slack caused by Antonio Gates going down with a dislocated toe. The Colts are an excellent team, but they won their Superbowl, and it's been awhile since there's been a repeat champion. Also, there's a big disparity in quality on special teams, San Diego has a huge edge there, and special teams play will be the deciding factor in this game.

NY Giants at Dallas Dallas -7.5 BS Picks NY Giants
This will be a massacre. NY Giants played well last week, but they are a terrible team with a decent defense that beat a weak playoff team last week. Eli will go back to looking awful, and Romo will play well and pick apart the aggressive Giants attack.

My Nemesis Bill Simmons™ has a lenghty post regarding the history and current state of the NFL Pregame show, it's not a bad read, could have used a little editing though, as it's pretty long. Also, in the same post are his picks, we agree on both Saturday games, and disagree on both Sunday games, he's going 2-2, and I'm going 4-0.

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