07 September 2008

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation, Week 01, The Picks

Another NFL season descends. Another chance to humiliate myself with bad prognostications. I'm not bothering with the Bill Simmons comparisons, this week, let's see how badly he does in the first week before making a decision if it's worth my time.

I skipped Thursday, because football seasons aren't supposed to start on Thursdays, plus I'm limiting myself to five games a week to pick against the spread, so I'm concentrating on the four games being televised in Los Angeles on Sunday, and one of the Monday Night games.

New York Jets (4-12 in 2007) at Miami +4.0 (1-15 in 2007), My pick NYJ -4.0
Two teams that combined for 5 wins in 2007, and this is the best AFC match-up that CBS could muster? Oh, right, that fella who was in that Mary movie Bret something will be in this, and that guy who sells tuna fish when not coaching is now coachinggeneral managing again. The Bret somethings will beat the Mahi Mahis, but not cause of that Bret feller, he'll mostly suck, but the Jets defense will play well, and Chad Pennington will be Chad Pennington (and CBS, this is really going to be a better game to watch than JAX at TEN?)

Tampa Bay (9-7 in 2007) at New Orleans -3.5 (7-9 in 2007), My pick NO -3.5
I think everything should come together for the Saints this year, after slipping back into mediocrity in 2007 after a breakout year in 2006. Tampa Bay will be consistently good, but this week, they won't be good enough to contain the offensive firepower of the Saints, and the Saints defense will do enough to keep this from getting too close.

Dallas (13-3 in 2007) at Cleveland +5.5 (10-6 in 2007), My pick DAL -5.5
Dallas are pretty big favorites on the road against a solid Cleveland squad. After a few off season tweaks here and there, I don't know that Dallas will be at full strength in this opening game, but I think they can still manage to beat the Browns in Cleveland by at least a TD. Might end up being a yawner, or the Browns could keep it close for 3 quarters before fading in the 4th. Beats watching tennis (or it would if the tennis wasn't being postponed, oops, double checked, looks like there will be some tennis on with the completion of the Nadal-Murry semi and given that Murray has one the first two sets, it might be interesting to see if he can complete the upset, the score stands at Nadal 3, Murray 2 in the 3rd set, but then again, nahhh, men's tennis became pretty boring once they switched away from wooden rackets, no rallys, just big serves and big returns of serve, except in rare cases like that Wimbledon final between Nadal and Federer a few months ago, when did this become Tennis Chat?).

Chicago (7-9 in 2007) at Indianapolis -8.0 (13-3 in 2007), My pick Chicago +8.0
I still think Indy will win this game, but I don't think it will be by more than a TD. The Colts offense is very effecient, but the Bears defense is nearly equal in their capacity for being disruptive. I think this game is more evenly matched than it appears at first glance. Should be low scoring, but Indy will gut out a close win, which means I'm picking Chicago against the spread.

Minnesota (8-8 in 2007) at Green Bay Even (13-3 in 2007), My pick Minnesota Even
I'm a bit surprised this is a pick 'em game. Had Favre come back, I suspect that the home team would be at least a field goal favorite. I think the turmoil of the off season will catch up with The Packers in this game, and Minnesota ought to be able to sneak off the hostile field with a victory. Or the opposite could happen, and the team will rally around the new guy, and trounce the invading horde of Vikings. But, I'm thinking the former is more likely than the latter, so I'm sticking with going with the Vikes. I do think Green Bay will be shaky to start the season, and become a bit more consistent later.

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