07 September 2010

NFL 2010: Win Total Predictions AFC East

Thursday kicks off the new season of the true 'Greatest Show on Earth', that's right, NFL Football! All odds taken from Vegasinsider.com (opening line).

The AFC East should be entertaining with three solid teams, and one doormat. Their divisional match ups are both defensive minded divisions facing both the NFC and AFC North. Basically, every week is going to be against some of the top ranked defenses in the league, that's going to be tough on all these teams. The Jets are over-exposed, but talented, New England is either sliding into mediocrity, or might be good again, Miami will be solid if Chad Henne is capable of doing something, and Buffalo, along with Jacksonville, will be trying to play their way into a new sunnier and warmer address in Southern California.

Buffalo Bills (Win total 5.0) UNDER!
Buffalo is tied with Detroit and St. Louis for lowest over/under line on their win total, and rightly so. This team is devoid of talent, and are probably going to have the worst record in the AFC by the end of the season. Not much else to say, just hope they stay where they are, the only worse team for L.A. to pick up would be Detroit.

Miami Dolphins (Win total 8.5) OVER!
Miami looks poised to do some damage this season, and I think will win this division as the Jets implode and New England doesn't quite put things together. All three of those teams are going to finish somewhere between 8-8 and 10-6, though, so any result wouldn't surprise me, but I do think only the division winner will make the playoffs (the 2nd place teams in the AFC North and South should have better records than the 2nd place teams in the East, and in the West 7-9 might win the division). It's going to be just a few plays that make the difference between an unsuccessful 8-8 team and a playoff bound 10-6, though.

New England Patriots (Win total 9.5) UNDER!
I think their plateau is 9 wins. Brady might have a great season, but I think they're actually too young on defense (strange to say about the Pats) to be much better than a .500 team this year. Any result between 6 wins, or 11 wins wouldn't be all that surprsing, though. On paper, probably a down year, but Brady is still Brady, and they've got a coach who can squeeze talent out of players (or squeeze the life out of them).

New York Jets (Win total 9.5) UNDER!
They were a 9-7 team last year, and they'll be an 8-8 or 9-7 team this year. They lead the All Hype team, but Sanchez looks lost, the Revis thing will cause ripples (even though they did sign him), and Tomlinson won't contribute. Potentially a great defense, but that'll get wasted as their offense makes key errors at key moments. They backed into a 9-7 season last year, and they really aren't improved. The Hard Knocks effect, and NYC is the Center of the Universe effect explains why some are favoring this team to do damage this year. Don't believe the hype, this is still the Jets, and they'll find ways to lose.

No comments: