Showing posts with label NFL Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Predictions. Show all posts

18 November 2010

NFL Win Total, Just Past Midway Update (AFC Edition)

Just before the season began, I picked against the win total lines. With the byes behind us, and all teams having played 9/16ths of their games, seems like a good time to evaluate which picks seem to be on track, and which teams I was way off on.

AFC North
my predictions BAL (over 10), CIN (under 8), CLE (over 5.5), PIT (under 9)
Baltimore needs to go 5-2 down the stretch to hit the over, and looking at their schedule, it's within reach, but they could just as easily slip to 9-7, so nothing is written in stone.
Cincinnati was even crappier than I expected, so no problem with them hitting the under.
Cleveland needs to go at least 3-4 to beat the over, and with CAR, BUF, and CIN on the schedule, should be possible, especially with how well Colt McCoy has looked.
Pittsburgh surprised me so far, they survived their time without #7, but with their makeshift offensive line, and a few tough road games left, their high side potential is probably around 10 wins, and it wouldn't be shocking if they slip to 8-8 by going 2-5 down the stretch, so I'm still hopeful that my picks are solid for this division

AFC South my predictions HOU (over 8), IND (over 11), JAX (under 7), TEN (over 8)
Houston sucks, they'll probably finish a disappointing 7-9 or 8-8.
Indy has been solid at home, but a bit shaky on the road, and would need to go 6-1 the rest of the way to have over 11 wins, not likely at this point.
Jacksonville already has 5 wins, so they'll probably get at least 2 more wins.
Tennessee has some solid wins, and confounding losses. They should go at least 4-3, but much better, or worse is possible.

AFC East my predictions BUF (under 5), MIA (over 8.5), NE (under 9.5), NYJ (under 9.5)
Buffalo has played well, yet they've only won one game, so feel pretty confident about them staying under 5 wins.
Miami has 5 wins so far, and with some easy games outside of their division 4 more wins are within their grasp, but they could also screw things up.
New England has done their smoke and mirrors thing and are tied for best record. On paper should have been a down year, but they do what they do. Damn, Belichick.
New York Jets season still might blow up, and all those close wins they've squeaked out for the first half, might become close losses down the stretch, still they'll probably make the over, and my picks for this whole division will probably be wrong.

AFC West my predictions DEN (under 7.5) KC (over 6.5) OAK (over 6.0) SD (under 11)
Denver looks to be the bottom dwellers of this crappy division, so the under feels pretty solid.
KC started well, but after two road losses within their division, they look a bit shaky, but will get at least two wins, so the over looks good.
Oakland might be pretty good this season, and should get at least two more victories.
San Diego seems to be doing their usual start slow, finish strong thing. They're putting up great stats, but have a mediocre record. They'd have to go 6-1 to hit the over, not impossible, but not probable, so I feel good about my pick.

The playoff picture is still pretty muddled in the AFC, Indy, Baltimore, NYJ and NE seem like locks, San Diego will probably rise up and sneak off with their division again, unless Oakland figures out how to win on the road and gets to 10-6. Pittsburgh or Miami will probably be fighting for the last wildcard spot. If I had to pick right now based on how the teams look at this moment, I think the division winners will be BAL, IND, NE, SD with NYJ and MIA getting the wildcard spots. It's going to be crazy down the stretch with a gazillion tiebreaker scenarios being the difference between division wins and being completely out of the playoffs for a few quality teams. 11-5 might be the best record, and 10-6 the worst that make it into the playoffs.

08 September 2010

NFL 2010: Win Total Predictions NFC West

Thursday kicks off the new season of the true 'Greatest Show on Earth', that's right, NFL Football! All odds taken from Vegasinsider.com (opening line).

NFC West, I'm tempted to give up right now and skip this division entirely. San Francisco might be frisky, otherwise, crap, crap, and more crap.

Arizona Cardinals (Win total 7.5) UNDER!
Derek Anderson is their QB. Enough said.

San Francisco 49ers (Win total 8.5) OVER!
One of these teams has to win the division, might as well be them. If they sweep their divisional opponents and just go 3-7 in their other games, that gets them to 9-7. Ought to be within reach. Let's not go crazy and expect much more from them.

Seattle Seahawks (Win total 7.5) UNDER!
Pete Carroll is going to miss being around professional level talent like he had back in Southern California...

St. Louis Cardinals (Win total 5.0) UNDER!
Sam Bradford will be something in this league, eventually, but not this season. Probably trying to play themselves out of any chance at a new stadium in St. Louis, thus paving the way to return to Los Angeles. Sucks for any fans they have left, and sucks for Los Angeles if they end up coming back, oh well.

NFL 2010: Win Total Predictions NFC East

Thursday kicks off the new season of the true 'Greatest Show on Earth', that's right, NFL Football! All odds taken from Vegasinsider.com (opening line).

NFC East ought to be the most competitive division in the NFL, with three good teams, and one team capable being good, but most likely being pretty crappy. Matching up with the NFC North and the AFC South means this division has about the toughest schedule in the NFL this year. Should be three teams at 10-6 or 9-7 and one at 6-10 when the dust settles.

Dallas Cowboys (Win total 10.0) UNDER!
Plenty of talent, and they've had pretty good regular seasons the past few years, then screwed up post seasons, maybe this is the year they underacheive in the regular season and excel in the playoffs. This is a 9-7 team, no better, no worse.

New York Giants (Win total 8.5) OVER!
They should challenge Washington for the division crown, 10-6 ought to be about right for this squad. Hopefully their new digs will help come late season as Eli Manning is a horrible QB in the wind, and even though there's no roof, it's much more enclosed so the swirling winds won't screw up their passing attack.

Philadelpia Eagles (Win total 8.0) UNDER!
Kolb might be great, and might make them forget all about McNabb, or not. Probably not, this team is ready to fall off a cliff, and the legendary late game mismanagement by their coaching staff will cost them a few games and any shot at the playoffs this season. 6-10 seems about right for the Iggles.

Washington Redskin (Win total 8.0) OVER!
Shanahan is back in the league, and the 'Skins should be back as a contender. The Haynesworth crap has me a bit worried, though, maybe Shanahan is the wrong kind of coach for modern players and this team will fall apart quickly. This is a team that could do anything from 6-10 to 11-5, I'm leaning towards seeing them as at 11-5, but hard to know until they actually line up in real games. A motivated McNabb in a system he's well suited for, should produce solid offensive production, it's the defense that will put this team forward, or hold them back. I'm picking over, but this isn't a very confident pick.

NFL 2010: Win Total Predictions NFC South

Thursday kicks off the new season of the true 'Greatest Show on Earth', that's right, NFL Football! All odds taken from Vegasinsider.com (opening line).

NFC South should be an entertaining division, with two good teams, one enigmatic team, and one team continuing to rebuild. They face the creampuff NFC West and the tough AFC North, so their out of division match ups are a mixed bag. New Orleans should have another solid year, though their relatively weak defense may cost them a few more games than they did last year. Atlanta might be very good, or it might all fall apart, they have a lot of young talent at the skill positions, which means they're unpredictable. Carolina will probably be awful, unless they aren't, any result from 10-6 to 4-12 seem possible. Tampa Bay will play hard, but they lack talent, so playing hard won't result into a whole bunch of victories.

Atlanta Falcons (Win total 9.0) OVER!
This is a tough one, they feel like a 9-7 team to me, so most likely this will be a push, but if a few breaks go their way, 10-6 and a playoff berth should be within reach. Should be a fun team to watch, either way.

Carolina Panthers (Win total 7.0) OVER!
Another tough one, this is probably a 7-9 team, but they still have a pretty solid defense, so they might squeeze out a few 13-7 victories that push them to 8-8 or 9-7. Will be a frustrating season for their fans, and they'll probably be ugly games to watch, but they'll be about as successful as their talent allows.

New Orleans Saints (Win total 10.5) UNDER!
Another tough call, the lines on the teams in this division all fall right at the number of victories I expect. This is a 10-6 or 11-5 team, very solid, probably in the top four teams of the NFC, but nothing like the team the team that seemed so dominate offensively last season, and their defensive lapses will punish them in a few close games.

Tampa Bay Bucaneers (Win total 6.0) UNDER!
Might challenge for the number one draft pick this year. Don't think there are any 0-16 teams this season, probably 4-12 will be as poorly as any team does, and that'll be about where this team finishes, so on the negative side, horrible for their fans, on the plus side, they might earn themselves a pretty special player in next year's draft.

NFL 2010: Win Total Predictions NFC North

Thursday kicks off the new season of the true 'Greatest Show on Earth', that's right, NFL Football! All odds taken from Vegasinsider.com (opening line).

NFC North seems likely to produce one good team, and three mediocre to bad teams. Green Bay will probably be the best NFC team when the season ends, while Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago should all be .500 or worse. This division gets matched against both the NFC and AFC East, which is a tough draw with 7 very solid teams in those two divisions.

Chicago Bears (Win total 8.0) UNDER!
This isn't a good team. I repeat, they suck. Defense is aging, and they have no offense, 5-11 or 6-10 seem likely, they'll be lucky to get to 7-9. Not sure why bookies place them as a middle of the pack team, they get more respect than their coaching or roster would seem to merit.

Detroit Lions (Win total 5.0) OVER!
This isn't a horrible team. I repeat, they suck slightly less than the Bears. Probably a 7-9 team, maybe even 8-8, still pretty mediocre, but for the Lions an .500 season would practically feel like winning the Superbowl after so many futile years. There's reason for optimism in Detroit, but don't get too crazy, and hopefully the L.A. group trying to lure them away won't be successful (L.A. Lions as a franchise does have the advantage of alliteration going for it, though).

Green Bay Packers (Win total 9.5) OVER!
Best team in the NFC, at least assuming their defense shows any capability to stop opposing offenses. An explosive offense with an opportunistic defense should combine for best record in the NFC status in 2010. a 12 or 13 win season seems within grasp, even with a tough schedule.

Minnesota Vikings (Win total 9.5) UNDER!
By the middle of the season both the Vikings and the Brett will wish #4 had stayed retired. They still have Peterson, and they should still win some games, but I don't see them being better than 8-8 if Favre regresses to the NY Jets Favre rather than the improbably error free Favre from last season. Will be fun watching this team fall apart and point fingers every which way, though.

07 September 2010

NFL 2010: Win Total Predictions AFC West

Thursday kicks off the new season of the true 'Greatest Show on Earth', that's right, NFL Football! All odds taken from Vegasinsider.com (opening line).

AFC West, ugh. I'm tempted to skip both the AFC and NFC West divisions at they both look horrible (again) this year. They should pick up a few easy wins being matched against the NFC West (the only worse division), but get beat up by the AFC South. If all the teams within the division beat each other, then they might all end up between 6-10 and 9-7. I can't believe I'm typing this, but Oakland has the potential to win this division if San Diego faulters, and cases could be made, even, for Denver and Kansas City. Still, most likely, this division is one big steaming mound of mediocrity.

Denver Broncos (Win total 7.5) UNDER!
I suspect they'll be the doormats of the division, I just don't trust Kyle Orton to produce more than 6 or 7 wins in a season given there's not a whole lot of defense on this team. Last year they started well, then collapsed, I think this year, they might win their first two, but then looking at their schedule a six game losing streak heading into their bye week seems probable. After that, they'll bounce back, but that won't be enough to win more than 7 games.

Kansas City Chiefs (Win total 6.5) OVER!
After last season's woeful 4-12 performance an 8-8 season probably will seem pretty good. That's all they'll get, but that'll be enough.

Oakland Raiders (Win total 6.0) OVER!
They haven't had more than 5 wins in a season since they lost in Superbowl XXXVII. Their "Commitment to Excrement" has been impressive in the seasons since 2002. Why should things turn around now? First, easy schedule, second, Jason Campbell is a huge upgrade at QB, third, they have a very good defense that if they don't make stupid mistakes, should put them in position to beat any team they face. They are capable of beating, or losing to, any other team in the league, not too many squads can say that. Let's not go too crazy, though, even 8-8 will look great after all the losing, but 8-8 is within reach.

San Diego Chargers (Win total 11.0) UNDER!
Along with the Colts, they share the honor of having the highest number where their win total is set. I think that's more a reflection of the division their in, then their talent level. Their defense is suspect, and their offense will miss Vincent Jackson if he is traded (or pouts). Norv Turner is still their coach, and that's still a bad thing. I think they slip to a 8-8 or 9-7 team this year as their division is more competitive than people are crediting, but that might still be enough to get them in the playoffs.

NFL 2010: Win Total Predictions AFC East

Thursday kicks off the new season of the true 'Greatest Show on Earth', that's right, NFL Football! All odds taken from Vegasinsider.com (opening line).

The AFC East should be entertaining with three solid teams, and one doormat. Their divisional match ups are both defensive minded divisions facing both the NFC and AFC North. Basically, every week is going to be against some of the top ranked defenses in the league, that's going to be tough on all these teams. The Jets are over-exposed, but talented, New England is either sliding into mediocrity, or might be good again, Miami will be solid if Chad Henne is capable of doing something, and Buffalo, along with Jacksonville, will be trying to play their way into a new sunnier and warmer address in Southern California.

Buffalo Bills (Win total 5.0) UNDER!
Buffalo is tied with Detroit and St. Louis for lowest over/under line on their win total, and rightly so. This team is devoid of talent, and are probably going to have the worst record in the AFC by the end of the season. Not much else to say, just hope they stay where they are, the only worse team for L.A. to pick up would be Detroit.

Miami Dolphins (Win total 8.5) OVER!
Miami looks poised to do some damage this season, and I think will win this division as the Jets implode and New England doesn't quite put things together. All three of those teams are going to finish somewhere between 8-8 and 10-6, though, so any result wouldn't surprise me, but I do think only the division winner will make the playoffs (the 2nd place teams in the AFC North and South should have better records than the 2nd place teams in the East, and in the West 7-9 might win the division). It's going to be just a few plays that make the difference between an unsuccessful 8-8 team and a playoff bound 10-6, though.

New England Patriots (Win total 9.5) UNDER!
I think their plateau is 9 wins. Brady might have a great season, but I think they're actually too young on defense (strange to say about the Pats) to be much better than a .500 team this year. Any result between 6 wins, or 11 wins wouldn't be all that surprsing, though. On paper, probably a down year, but Brady is still Brady, and they've got a coach who can squeeze talent out of players (or squeeze the life out of them).

New York Jets (Win total 9.5) UNDER!
They were a 9-7 team last year, and they'll be an 8-8 or 9-7 team this year. They lead the All Hype team, but Sanchez looks lost, the Revis thing will cause ripples (even though they did sign him), and Tomlinson won't contribute. Potentially a great defense, but that'll get wasted as their offense makes key errors at key moments. They backed into a 9-7 season last year, and they really aren't improved. The Hard Knocks effect, and NYC is the Center of the Universe effect explains why some are favoring this team to do damage this year. Don't believe the hype, this is still the Jets, and they'll find ways to lose.

NFL 2010: Win Total Predictions AFC South

Thursday kicks off the new season of the true 'Greatest Show on Earth', that's right, NFL Football! All odds taken from Vegasinsider.com (opening line).

AFC South is a tough division to gauge. The Colts are favorites to win the Superbowl this season, Houston might finally live up to their promise, and Tennessee looked awfully good last season after their horrendous start, so they might be interesting. That leaves Jacksonville, who seem to have a strong incentive to play their way out of Northern Florida and into the new stadium being built in glamorous City of Industry. Their cross division match ups are mixed bag, on the one hand, they're facing the strong top to bottom NFC East, on the other they get to face the cream-puffery of the AFC West.

Houston Texans (win total 8.0) OVER!
Seems like every year 'experts' predict that the Texans will put everything together and finally make the playoffs. Well, this year they're right! Woohoo! Matt Schaub had monster numbers last year that nobody noticed since the Texans missed the playoffs, but if he stays healthy (and with a very solid offensive line, he has a good chance to do just that), they've got a solid chance of improving to a 10 or 11 win team and nabbing that elusive playoff spot this franchise has yet to earn.

Indianapolis Colts (win total 11.0) UNDER!
At some point, the wheels have to come off, right? Too consistent for too long, I just don't trust them this year. Their offensive line is suspect, and Manning will get hurt, if that happens, their season is over. They do not have the depth they once did, and I don't think they'll luck out plugging in rookies in the gaps created by injuries as they have in past seasons. They look like a 6-10 or 8-8 team to me, but I seem to be alone in that sentiment.

Jacksonville Jaguars (win total 7.0) UNDER!
I think everything points to a lousy season for this team. Running backs fade, and fade fast, and while Jones-Drew seems capable, he hasn't had to be the sole featured back before, which is a recipe for problems. They still have a solid defense, but without any offensive production, they'll lose a lot of close games. But hey, they can turn things around when they come out to California for the 2011 season!

Tennessee Titans (win total 8.0) OVER!
I think they will challenge Houston for the division title this year, and should put together a nice run this year with Vince Young turning into something special as both a passer and a running threat. Or not, they are a tough squad to figure out, a lot of unknowns, but they do have the best RB, a solid defense, and have a coaching staff that's creative, so if they stay healthy, and figure out how to best utilize Young's talent set, they might end up challenging Baltimore for best record in the AFC.

NFL 2010: Win Total Predictions AFC North

Thursday kicks off the new season of the true 'Greatest Show on Earth', that's right, NFL Football! All odds taken from Vegasinsider.com (opening line).

AFC North looks to be one of the stronger conferences, with probable AFC Champion Baltimore in the mix with a possibly frisky Bengals team, and a Steelers team that could go anywhere from 7-9 to 12-4 depending how healthy they stay on defense, and how they react during #7's absence. Even Cleveland might be something, but then again, they're Cleveland, so probably not. Teams presented in alphabetical order. Their divisional cross-match this season is against a solid AFC East, and the NFC South (home of the current NFL Champion Saints). None of these teams are going to get any weeks off, really. Not being matched against either of the two crappy divisions (AFC West, NFC West) might reduce each team's win total potential.

Baltimore Ravens (win total 10.0) OVER!
Despite being in a strong division, I think this could be a 12-14 win team this season, so taking the over seems like a no-brainer. A lot depends on how healthy their defensive stars stay this season, but there's no reason to suspect they won't have another competitive regular season like last year. 4-2 in division, and 8-2 outside of their division seems like a pretty good bet to make on this team. They had an easier schedule last year, yet stumbled to a 9-7 mark, but I think they'll perform better this season, some of their losses were pretty flukey. If they play smartly on both sides of the ball, they'll be hard to beat. Unfortunately, they have a history of boneheaded-ness at key moments that might undermine their talent. I'm almost talking myself out of picking them over, but on paper this is one of the strongest teams in the league, and should challenge the Colts for the AFC Championship.

Cincinnati Bengals (win total 8.0) UNDER!
Too many distractions, this team always seems ready for a breakthrough, and then something happens off field and their season goes south. I'm going with history on this one. Excluding the 1982 scab season following their Superbowl loss, the Bengals haven't had consecutive winning seasons since 1977. I have faith in this franchise that they'll find a way to fall apart and lose 10-11 games despite all the talent they seem to have.

Cleveland Browns (win total 5.5) OVER!
Cleveland's taken enough abuse this year, their NFL Franchise will give them a glimmer of hope, mainly because I expect bad things from divisional opponents Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, though, not because the Browns look particularly strong. They'll scratch out at least 8 wins this season, that'll be enough to distract Cleveland fans from all the fun the Miami LeBrons will be having in the NBA during November and December.

Pittsburgh Steelers (win total 9.0) UNDER!
If their defense stays healthy, and Dennis Dixon does a decent job, they might do well, but those are two huge ifs, and I think they'll lose key defensive players to injury, and when Ben #7 comes back after his suspension, that things won't immediately click into place. This is a 7 win team waiting to happen.

25 September 2009

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation: Week 3, The Picks

BS: Here

My picks (Home teams ALL CAPS)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-4) over Atlanta Falcons (BS ATL)
Tennessee Titans (+2.5) over NY JETS (BS TEN)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-6) over Miami Dolphins (BS MIA)
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1.5) over Indianapolis Colts (BS IND)
DALLAS COWBOYS (-9) over Carolina Panthers (BS CAR)

In what bizarro world do I pick the Pats and BS doesn't? This is the week that he goes down in flames, and I correct my losing ways. The Pats will put together a decent game, and Atlanta will struggle on the road, Pats will cover easily. The Titans will have no trouble in the Meadowlands as they beat a Jets team that will believe too much of its good press. The Chargers will roll, give the hometown fans something to cheer about, while Miami will have trouble running against the Bolts' defense. In the Sunday Night game, the Cardinals will beat up on the Colts and control this game from start to finish on both sides of the ball. On Monday night, Dallas, and Romo will settle down and play mistake free ball while romping against a crappy Panthers squad. Yes, the line is ridiculous in that game, but Dallas will still manage to put up over 30 points while Carolina will struggle to score more than 17, so that big spread isn't a problem.

Should be another entertaining week of football, so far this year, lots of excitement, especially in the night games. Don't think that trend will last this week as both night games will be routs, but maybe next week...

Also, it looks like the playoff picture is already taking shape. I have a feeling all five 2-0 teams in the NFC (NYG, MIN, ATL, NO, SF) are making the playoffs, and all four 0-2 teams are headed for awful seasons, so that leaves just one berth being fought over between Dallas, Philly, Green Bay, Chicago, and Arizona (DC and Seattle don't count, they aren't doing anything this season). Dallas and Philly are hurt by being in the best division in the NFC, so anything better than a 9-7 record will be a struggle, which will doom their wildcard shot. I think Green Bay or Chicago should put together a 10-6 season, which should give either of them the last wildcard, leaving the defending NFC Champs sitting home. So my prediction for playoff teams after two weeks of NFL action looks like this for the NFC

Division winners NYG, MIN, NO, SF with ATL and GB picking up the wildcard slots. I think NO will upset MIN in the Championship game making this Saints squad the first in team history to play in the Superbowl.

The AFC is slightly muddier. I think the Jets will continue to do what they're doing and win their division. Baltimore will rule in the AFC North, the Titans will turn things around while the Colts will sneak in with a wildcard, and the Chargers will easily win the AFC West with Denver snatching the other wildcard slot. Baltimore will earn homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and easily win both their games at home, against any possible opponents.

That sets up a classic Great Defense (Ravens) versuses a Great Offense (Saints) Superbowl this February. Should be fun. Current odds for Baltimore (according to Vegas Insider) are 15/2 to win the AFC, while New Orleans are at 10/1. Both those lines seem at odds with their performances so far this season. Strangely, New England remains the favorite to win the Superbowl at 4/1, even though they suck, while Pittsburgh is second choice at 15/2, and the Giants and Eagles are both 8/1 while the Chargers are 10/1. Both the Ravens at 18/1 and Saints at 20/1 aren't getting much Superbowl love from the oddsmakers at the moment, but that should change if they both keep posting impressive victories.

06 September 2008

Season Preview, An Entire Season's Worth of NFL Related Humiliation, OVERVIEW

Here are the links to all eight parts of my picks of all 256 games for the entire season (compiled before the first game on Thursday Sept 4th, any edits have been for errors I missed on first post, no picks have been changed, or will be changed, you'll just have to take my word on it, though). I'll post weekly updates each Tuesday, and I'll also be doing the usual Humiliating NFL Pick posts of 4 Los Angeles market televised games each week (unless I get bored with it towards the tenth week like I do every season).

Part 1, NFC East
Part 2, NFC West
Part 3, NFC North
Part 4, NFC South
Part 5, AFC East
Part 6, AFC West
Part 7, AFC North
Part 8, AFC South

As far as the playoffs go here are your NFC division winners, Dallas, Arizona, Green Bay, and New Orleans with Washington and Tampa Bay snagging the two wildcard spots. In the AFC I have New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville winning their divisions with the NY Jets and Houston Texans as surprise wildcard teams. I have the NFC Championship game being New Orleans at Dallas with Dallas winning, the AFC Champsionship game being Jacksonville at New England with Jacksonville managing to upset New England in the miserable cold of Gillette Stadium in late January, with a season ending Jacksonville triumph in Tampa Bay at Superbowl XLIII.

For the most part I'm within 2 games plus or minus compared to the opening betting lines for season win totals (just scroll down, it's on that page towards the middle), with a few notable exceptions. NY Giants I expect to be terrible (though they managed to beat Washington, despite only one TD, and Eli Manning's propensity to overthrow his receivers, the line on them is 9, and I gave them 3 wins for the season (which I guess should be revised to 4 now that I screwed up on the Thursday night kick-off game, nothing in that game suggests to me that they won't be terrible, just Washington started out even worse, and I still think Washington will turn things around they just had rookie coach jitters the first week). The team that I deviate most on the high side are the NY Jets, whose betting line opened at 7, but I have them tabbed for 11 victories. The other team I'm much more strongly skeptical of compared to the line is Denver, who opened at 8 victories, but I expect them to win only 3 games. My second biggest 'upset' favorite would be New Orleans, whose line is at 8.5, but I see winning 12 games, and challenging Dallas for the home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

The AFC South will be the best division overall, and both the NFC and AFC West divisions will be craptastic, or maybe even craptacular, or possibly even crapulescent, though as I think about it some more, I'd have to go with a Don Kingian Craputilacious as the one word that encapsulates the crappiness of those eight teams collectively. However you slice it, and whatever word you use to describe those divisions, the word you use should begin with 'crap'.

That's the entire season as I see it. I'd be happy with better than 200 games picked correctly, I'd also be very surprised, but one can hope. And if you feel like betting heavily on my predictions, feel free, just know that I wouldn't put a dime on any of these picks (except maybe under 9 victories for the NY Giants, that's a lock as far as I'm concerned).

03 September 2008

Season Preview, An Entire Season's Worth of NFL Related Humiliation, Part 8 --- AFC South

I saved the best for last. Every team in the divison will be at least .500, but only two are going to make the playoffs, and neither of those playoff teams will be the Colts. Jacksonville should put together a fine season and even challenge New England for the best record in the AFC, and when they meet in the AFC Championship game, anything can happen.

HOU O/U 7.5 wins, my total 10 UPDATE Week 2 PPd until Week 10, Week 10 Game against CIN Moved to Week 8
This is their break through year. They're making the playoffs for the first time, and they'll be one of the most solid teams on both side of the ball. (I know, crazy talk, but usually there's one or two team that makes a big leap from one year to the next, and they weren't half bad last year)

01 @PIT L (0-1)
02 BAL W (1-1) PPd until Week 10, BYE
03 @TEN L (0-2)
04 @JAX L (0-3)
05 IND W (1-3)
06 MIA L (1-4)
07 DET W (2-4)
08 BYE CIN W (3-4) Moved from Week 10
09 @MIN W (4-4)
10 CIN W (5-4) BAL W (5-4) Moved from Week 02
11 @IND L (5-5)
12 @CLE W (6-5)
13 JAX W (7-5)
14 @GB L (7-6)
15 TEN W (8-6)
16 @OAK W (9-6)
17 CHI W (10-6)

IND O/U 11.5 wins, my total 9
They're going to miss the playoffs for the first time in forever. Somethings got to give, and they seem poised to be hit by injuries. They'll still be competitive, and they'll still win more than they'll lose, but they'll be sitting at home when the real fun starts.

01 CHI W (1-0)
02 @MIN L (1-1)
03 JAX L (1-2)
04 BYE
05 @HOU L (1-3)
06 BAL W (2-3)
07 @GB L (2-4)
08 @TEN W (3-4)
09 NE W (4-4)
10 @PIT L (4-5)
11 HOU W (5-5)
12 @SD L (5-6)
13 @CLE W (6-6)
14 CIN L (6-7)
15 IND W (7-7)
16 @JAX W (8-7)
17 TEN W (9-7)

JAX O/U 10.5 wins, my total 12
This is their year to be one of the best teams in the league. I expect them to be the last undefeated in the league, making it through week ten with a 9-0 record. After that they'll be a little shaky, but then they should turn things around in the playoffs and upset New England in the championship game, make it to the Superbowl against Dallas, and then put an ass whopping on the 'Boys and become Superbowl XLIII champions in nearby Tampa (no luck on an all Florida bowl, though).

01 @TEN W (1-0)
02 BUF W (2-0)
03 @IND W (3-0)
04 HOU W (4-0)
05 PIT w (5-0)
06 @DEN W (6-0)
07 BYE
08 CLE W (7-0)
09 @CIN W (8-0)
10 @DET W (9-0)
11 TEN L (9-1)
12 MIN W (10-1)
13 @HOU L (10-2)
14 @CHI L (10-3)
15 GB W (11-3)
16 IND L (11-4)
17 @BAL W (12-4)

TEN O/U 8.5 wins, my total 8
They're almost good, but not really. Vince Young could almost be a great QB in the NFL, but not really. They're just kind of there. I expect them to start out strong, then fall apart.

01 JAX L (0-1)
02 @CIN W (1-1)
03 HOU W (2-1)
04 MIN W (3-1)
05 @BAL W (4-1)
06 BYE
07 @KC W (5-1)
08 IND L (5-2)
09 GB W (6-2)
10 @CHI L (6-3)
11 @JAX W (7-3)
12 NYJ L (7-4)
13 @DET L (7-5)
14 CLE W (8-5)
15 @HOU L (8-6)
16 PIT L (8-7)
17 @IND L (8-8)

Season Preview, An Entire Season's Worth of NFL Related Humiliation, Part 7 --- AFC North

The 'Black and Blue' division will be a little less black and blue and a bit more finesse in 2008. All the teams are going to under perform, but Pittsburgh should sneak off with the division crown by beating Cleveland in the last week of the season (it's a repeat of what's going to happen in the NFC North between Detroit and Green Bay, and Pittsburgh's field will be just as big of a mess as Green Bay's)

BAL O/U 7 wins, my total 4 UPDATE Week 2 PPd
They've lost their crappy QB for the season, and he'll be replaced by his even crappier back up. Despite their defense, this is a lost season for the Ravens.

01 CIN L (0-1)
02 @HOU L (0-1) PPd until Week 10
03 @CLE W (1-1)
04 PIT W (2-1)
05 TEN L (2-2)
06 @IND L (2-3)
07 @MIA L (2-4)
08 OAK W (3-4)
09 @CLE L (3-5)
10 BYE Make up Game, @HOU L (3-6)
11 @NYG L (3-7)
12 PHI L (3-8)
13 @CIN W (4-8)
14 WAS L (4-9)
15 PIT L (4-10)
16 @DAL L (4-11)
17 JAX L (4-12)

CIN O/U 7.5 wins, my total 6 UPDATE Schedule Change Due to Hurricane Ike
They just aren't a very good team, but they'll lose (and win from time to time) in exciting ways. There defense still sucks, so they'll win when they can light up the scoreboard, but there's no chance to be consistent in this league playing that way.

01 @BAL W (1-0)
02 TEN L (1-1)
03 @NYG W (2-1)
04 CLE W (3-1)
05 @DAL L (3-2)
06 @NYJ L (3-3)
07 PIT L (3-4)
08 BYE @HOU L (3-5) Moved from Week 10
09 JAX L (3-6)
10 @HOU L (3-6) Rescheduled for Week 08, BYE
11 PHI W (4-6)
12 @PIT L (4-7)
13 BAL L (4-8)
14 @IND W (5-8)
15 WAS L (5-9)
16 @CLE L (5-10)
17 KC W (6-10)

CLE O/U 8.5 wins, my total 7
They looked like an up and coming team last year, and just barely missed the playoffs, but I think they'll slip a bit this season (even though they'll still have a chance to win the division in the last game). They'll be good at times, horrible at others.

01 DAL L (0-1)
02 PIT W (1-1)
03 @BAL L (1-2)
04 @CIN L (1-3)
05 BYE
06 NYG W (2-3)
07 @WAS W (3-3)
08 @JAX L (3-4)
09 BAL W (4-4)
10 DEN W (5-4)
11 @BUF W (6-4)
12 HOU L (6-5)
13 IND L (6-6)
14 @TEN L (6-7)
15 @PHI L (6-8)
16 CIN W (7-8)
17 @PIT L (7-9)

PIT O/U 9.5 wins, my total 9
It's an up and down year for them, but they're still the best team in this division, and they should be able to squeak by and sneak into the playoffs. Once there, they'll get beat like a drum, but at least they'll make it to the post season.

01 HOU W (1-0)
02 @CLE L (1-1)
03 @PHI W (2-1)
04 BAL L (2-2)
05 @JAX L (2-3)
06 BYE
07 @CIN L (2-4)
08 NYG W (3-4)
09 @WAS L (3-5)
10 IND W (4-5)
11 SD W (5-5)
12 CIN W (6-5)
13 @NE L (6-6)
14 DAL L (6-7)
15 @BAL W (7-7)
16 @TEN W (8-7)
17 CLE W (9-7)

Season Preview, An Entire Season's Worth of NFL Related Humiliation, Part 6 --- AFC East

I believe the operative word to describe this division (with the exception of San Diego) is woeful.

DEN O/U 8 wins, my total 3
I just have a hunch they are going to be terrible team this year and the players are going to quit on their coach. Shanahan has been their too long, and they really don't have the talent to compete. It won't be pretty.

01 @OAK L (0-1)
02 SD L (0-2)
03 NO L (0-3)
04 @KC L (0-4)
05 TB W (1-4)
06 JAX L (1-5)
07 @NE L (1-6)
08 BYE
09 MIA W (2-6)
10 @CLE L (2-7)
11 @ATL L (2-8)
12 OAK W (3-8)
13 @NYJ L (3-9)
14 KC L (3-10)
15 @CAR L (3-11)
16 BUF L (3-12)
17 @SD L (3-13)

KC O/U 5.5 wins, my total 4
They are in full scale rebuilding mode, with mostly youngsters in a bunch of key positions. They'll be competitive in some games, but mostly they'll just suck.

01 @NE L (0-1)
02 OAK L (0-2)
03 @ATL L (0-3)
04 DEN W (1-3)
05 @CAR L (1-4)
06 BYE
07 TEN L (1-5)
08 @NYJ L (1-6)
09 TB L (1-7)
10 @SD L (1-8)
11 NO L (1-9)
12 BUF L (1-10)
13 @OAK W (2-10)
14 @DEN W (3-10)
15 SD L (3-11)
16 MIA W (4-11)
17 @CIN L (4-12)

OAK O/U 6 wins, my total 5
On the positive side, 2nd place in the division, on the negative side, it will only take five wins to get there. The least crappy of the crappier teams in this division. Russell ought to come along a bit, and their defense will continue to grow, but that won't equate to many victories. They will surprise a few playoff teams, though, so that's something.

01 DEN W (1-0)
02 @KC W (2-0)
03 @BUF L (2-1)
04 SD L (2-2)
05 BYE
06 @NO W (3-2)
07 NYJ W (4-2)
08 @BAL L (4-3)
09 ATL L (4-4)
10 CAR L (4-5)
11 @MIA L (4-6)
12 @DEN L (4-7)
13 KC L (4-8)
14 @SD W (5-8)
15 NE L (5-9)
16 HOU L (5-10)
17 @TB L (5-11)

SD O/U 11 wins, my total 11
Division champs, but not as good as last year's team, and a lot will depend on the health of their key backfield players. They're going to win plenty of games, but they'll also be inconsistent, and aren't going to do well in the post season. Norv Turner is still Norv Turner, afterall, last year was an abberation.

01 CAR W (1-0)
02 @DEN W (2-0)
03 NYJ L (2-1)
04 @OAK W (3-1)
05 @MIA W (4-1)
06 NE W (5-1)
07 @BUF L (5-2)
08 @NO W (6-2)
09 BYE
10 KC W (7-2)
11 @PIT L (7-3)
12 IND W (8-3)
13 ATL W (9-3)
14 OAK L (9-4)
15 @KC W (10-4)
16 @TB L (10-5)
17 DEN W (11-5)

Season Preview, An Entire Season's Worth of NFL Related Humiliation, Part 5 --- AFC East

This is going to be a tough division. New England should still stay on top, but the Jets will be improved, the Bills will play tough, and even Miami is going to be somewhat respectable this year with Parcells at the helm. This division should send both New England and the Jets to the playoffs this year.

BUF O/U 7.5 wins, my total 8
They are a solid team, that plays well, but they'll struggle on the road and find ways to lose to teams they should be able to beat (and beat a few of the better teams along the way, too). They get to play a game 'home' game in Toronto, these regular season games in foreign lands are kind of silly if you ask me.
01 SEA W (0-1)
02 @JAX L (1-1)
03 OAK W (2-1)
04 @STL L (2-2)
05 @ARI L (2-3)
06 BYE
07 SD W (3-3)
08 @MIA L (3-4)
09 NYJ L (3-5)
10 @NE L (3-6)
11 CLE L (3-7)
12 @KC W (4-7)
13 SF W (5-7)
14 MIA W (6-7)
15 @NYJ W (7-7)
16 @DEN W (8-7)
17 NE L (8-8)

MIA O/U 5 wins, my total 6
They'll be much improved compared to last year's disaster, but they'll start slowly. By week 11 they'll claw their way back to .500, but then fall back down to earth after that. Parcells is building something here, but they aren't there yet, so improved, but not even a sniff of the playoffs for Miami.
01 NYJ L (0-1)
02 @ARI L (0-2)
03 @NE L (0-3)
04 BYE
05 SD L (0-4)
06 @HOU W (1-4)
07 BAL W (2-4)
08 BUF W (3-4)
09 @DEN L (3-5)
10 SEA W (4-5)
11 OAK W (5-5)
12 NE L (5-6)
13 @STL L (5-7)
14 @BUF L (5-8)
15 SF L (5-9)
16 @KC L (5-10)
17 @NYJ W (6-10)

NE O/U 12.5 wins, my total 13
Ho hum, best team in the Conference, again. They should start out winning their first four, extending their regular season win streak to a gazillion, but they'll get stopped by the Chargers in San Diego. It will come as a relief in some ways to not have a streak to worry about, they'll settle down and go about winning their division, getting home field, and marching through the playoffs (all assuming Brady's foot isn't too bad).
01 KC W (1-0)
02 @NYJ W (2-0)
03 MIA W (3-0)
04 BYE
05 @SF W (4-0)
06 @SD L (4-1)
07 DEN W (5-1)
08 STL W (6-1)
09 @IND L (6-2)
10 BUF W (7-2)
11 NYJ L (7-3)
12 @MIA W (8-3)
13 PIT W (9-3)
14 @SEA W (10-3)
15 @OAK W (11-3)
16 ARI W (12-3)
17 @BUF W (13-3)

NYJ O/U 7 wins, my total 11
This isn't Favre worship, honest. He's not the difference maker here, it's an improved defense, and better execution on offense (even with an old new QB) that will lead to a playoff year for these Jets. They'll even have a division lead over New England late in the season, before coming back down a bit with a season ending skid.
01 @MIA W (1-0)
02 NE L (1-1)
03 @SD W (2-1)
04 ARI W (3-1)
05 BYE
06 CIN W (4-1)
07 @OAK L (4-2)
08 KC W (5-2)
09 @BUF W (6-2)
10 STL W (7-2)
11 @NE W (8-2)
12 @TEN W (9-2)
13 DEN W (10-2)
14 @SF W (11-2)
15 BUF L (11-3)
16 @SEA L (11-4)
17 MIA L (11-5)

Season Preview, An Entire Season's Worth of NFL Related Humiliation, Part 4 --- NFC South

Other than Atlanta, every team in this division is going to be tough to beat and be in the hunt for the playoffs. I think New Orleans should barely edge out Tampa for the division title, but Tampa should sneak into the playoffs and knock out Philly as the other wildcard with Washington.

Atlanta O/U 5 wins, my total 4
They'll suck as expected, but they'll also play well in spurts, just won't translate into a lot of victories. They're a few years off from being good again.

01 DET L (0-1)
02 @TB L (0-2)
03 KC W (1-2)
04 @CAR L (1-3)
05 @GB L (1-4)
06 CHI L (1-5)
07 BYE
08 @PHI L (1-6)
09 @OAK W (2-6)
10 NO L (2-7)
11 DEN W (3-7)
12 CAR W (4-7)
13 @SD L (4-8)
14 @NO L (4-9)
15 TB L (4-10)
16 @MIN L (4-11)
17 STL L (4-12)

Carolina O/U 8 wins, my total 8
I expect them to be up and down all season, beating some good teams, losing to some crappy teams, and end up with an unsatisfying 8-8 record when it's all over with.

01 @SD L (0-1)
02 CHI W (1-1)
03 @MIN L (1-2)
04 ATL W (2-2)
05 KC W (3-2)
06 @TB L (3-3)
07 NO W (4-3)
08 ARI W (5-3)
09 BYE
10 @OAK L (5-4)
11 DET W (6-4)
12 @ATL L (6-5)
13 @GB L (6-6)
14 TB L (6-7)
15 DEN W (7-7)
16 @NYG W (8-7)
17 @NO L (8-8)

New Orleans O/U 8.5 wins, my total 12
They're going to start of smoking hot this season, running off 5 straight wins, followed by a 3 game losing streak, but then they'll settle into a groove after they get back from London (yes, they play in London against San Diego, and it's designated as a 'home' game) they'll run off a nice 7 of 8 wins and snag the 2 seed in the playoffs (and get beat by Dallas in the NFC Championship game)

01 TB W (1-0)
02 @WAS W (2-0)
03 @DEN W (3-0)
04 SF W (4-0)
05 MIN W (5-0)
06 OAK L (5-1)
07 @CAR L (5-2)
08 SD L (5-3)
09 BYE
10 @ATL W (6-3)
11 @KC W (7-3)
12 GB W (8-3)
13 @TB W (9-3)
14 ATL W (10-3)
15 @CHI L (10-4)
16 @DET W (11-4)
17 CAR W (12-4)

Tampa Bay O/U 8.5 wins, my total 11
I expect them to be playoff bound again. They'll start out a bit slow, but then finish strong, just missing catching New Orleans after losing to them late in the season. They'll probably make it out of the wildcard round, but they aren't going to beat Dallas or New Orleans in the 2nd week of the playoffs.

01 @NO L (0-1)
02 ATL W (1-1)
03 @CHI L (1-2)
04 GB W (2-2)
05 @DEN L (2-3)
06 CAR W (3-3)
07 SEA W (4-3)
08 @DAL L (4-4)
09 @KC W (5-4)
10 BYE
11 MIN W (6-4)
12 @DET W (7-4)
13 NO L (7-5)
14 @CAR W (8-5)
15 @ATL W (9-5)
16 SD W (10-5)
17 OAK W (11-5)

Season Preview, An Entire Season's Worth of NFL Related Humiliation, Part 3 --- NFC North

This will be the "parity" division in 2008. Three teams at 7-9, and one at 9-7. The division championship will come down to the Detroit at Green Bay match up in week 17. Otherwise, it's a perfectly middle of the road division with no teams to get excited about.

Chicago O/U 8 wins, my total 7
I see them having an up and down year, dropping to 2-6 by week 9, but picking things up after that and winning the next 5 of 6 games. Won't be enough to make them playoff bound, though.

01 @IND L (0-1)
02 @CAR L (0-2)
03 TB W (1-2)
04 PHI L (1-3)
05 @DET L (1-4)
06 @ATL L (1-5)
07 MIN W (2-5)
08 BYE
09 DET L (2-6)
10 TEN W (3-6)
11 @GB L (3-7)
12 @STL W (4-7)
13 @MIN W (5-7)
14 JAX W (6-7)
15 NO W (7-7)
16 GB L (7-8)
17 @HOU L (7-9)

Detroit O/U 6.5 wins, my total 7
Another streaky team, I see them being a decent team, but they'll eventually under acheive. Lions fans will have another non playoff year to not cheer for.

01 @ATL W (1-0)
02 GB L (1-1)
03 @SF W (2-1)
04 BYE
05 CHI W (3-1)
06 @MIN L (3-2)
07 @HOU L (3-3)
08 WAS W (4-3)
09 @CHI W (5-3)
10 JAX L (5-4)
11 @CAR L (5-5)
12 TB L (5-6)
13 TEN W (6-6)
14 MIN W (7-6)
15 @IND L (7-7)
16 NO L (7-8)
17 @GB L (7-9)

Green Bay O/U 9 wins, my total 9
The Favre-less Packers will hover around .500 all season, not getting more than a game above that number until their final win at home on the 'frozen tundra' (can't not make a 'frozen tundra' remark regarding a game in late December at Lambeau Field, that will have playoff implications for both teams).

01 MIN L (0-1)
02 @DET W (1-1)
03 DAL L (1-2)
04 @TB L (1-3)
05 ATL W (2-3)
06 @SEA W (3-3)
07 IND W (4-3)
08 BYE
09 @TEN L (4-4)
10 @MIN W (5-4)
11 CHI L (5-5)
12 @NO L (5-6)
13 CAR W (6-6)
14 HOU W (7-6)
15 @JAX L (7-7)
16 @CHI W (8-7)
17 DET W (9-7)

Minnesota O/U 8 wins, my total 7
Close, but no cigar, they'll start off hot, beating some good teams, then they'll have a big losing streak in the middle of the season, only to win their last few games after already being eliminated from the playoffs. Sucks to be a Viking fan.

01 @GB W (1-0)
02 IND W (2-0)
03 CAR W (3-0)
04 @TEN L (3-1)
05 @NO L (3-2)
06 DET W (4-2)
07 @CHI L (4-3)
08 BYE
09 HOU L (4-4)
10 GB L (4-5)
11 @TB L (4-6)
12 @JAX L (4-7)
13 CHI L (4-8)
14 @DET L (4-9)
15 @ARI W (5-9)
16 ATL W (6-9)
17 NYG W (7-9)

(I switched to abbreviations, it's harder to read, but it was much faster to type, all the info is still there).

Season Preview, An Entire Season's Worth of NFL Related Humiliation, Part 2 --- NFC West

Can I just skip this division? I think every team here sucks, but Arizona will suck less than everyone else.

Arizona Cardinals O/U 8 wins, my total 9
A so-so 9-7 year, should be enough to win the division, though. I don't know what to say, every year I think they'll finally break through, and every year they disappoint, but not this year . . .

Week 01 @San Francisco W (1-0)
Week 02 Miami W (2-0)
Week 03 @Washington L (2-1)
Week 04 @NY Jets L (2-2)
Week 05 Buffalo W (3-2)
Week 06 Dallas W (4-2)
Week 07 BYE
Week 08 @Carolina L (4-3)
Week 09 @St.Louis W (5-3)
Week 10 San Francisco L (5-4)
Week 11 @Seattle W (6-4)
Week 12 NY Giants W (7-4)
Week 13 @Philadelphia L (7-5)
Week 14 St.Louis W (8-5)
Week 15 Minnesota L (8-6)
Week 16 @New England L (8-7)
Week 17 Seattle W (9-7)

San Francisco O/U 5.5, my total 3
Meh, lousy team (3-13 lousy), lousy division, I could write more, but what's the point?
Week 01 Arizona L (0-1)
Week 02 @Seattle L (0-2)
Week 03 Detroit L (0-3)
Week 04 @New Orleans L (0-4)
Week 05 New England L (0-5)
Week 06 Philadelphia L (0-6)
Week 07 @NY Giants L (0-7)
Week 08 Seattle W (1-7)
Week 09 BYE
Week 10 @Arizona L (1-8)
Week 11 St.Louis W (2-8)
Week 12 @Dallas L (2-9)
Week 13 @Buffalo L (2-10)
Week 14 NY Jets L (2-11)
Week 15 @Miami W (3-11)
Week 16 @St.Louis L (3-12)
Week 17 Washington L (3-13)

Seattle O/U 9 wins, my total 6
Meh 6-10, they're finally slipping out of being a playoff team, it was a mediocre run of mediocrity while it lasted (even their Superbowl appearance was mediocre).

Week 01 @Buffalo L (0-1)
Week 02 San Francisco W (1-1)
Week 03 St.Louis W (2-1)
Week 04 BYE
Week 05 @NY Giants W (3-1)
Week 06 Green Bay L (3-2)
Week 07 @Tampa Bay L (3-3)
Week 08 @San Francisco L (3-4)
Week 09 Philadelphia W (4-4)
Week 10 @Miami L (4-5)
Week 11 Arizona L (4-6)
Week 12 Washington L (4-7)
Week 13 @Dallas L (4-8)
Week 14 Newe England L (4-9)
Week 15 @St.Louis W (5-9)
Week 16 NY Jets W (6-9)
Week 17 @Arizona L (6-10)

St.Louis O/U 6.5 wins, my total 3
Another crappy team, another crappy record, another team not worth paying attention to if you live outside of the St.Louis area.

Week 01 @Philadelphia L (0-1)
Week 02 NY Giants L (0-2)
Week 03 @Seattle L (0-3)
Week 04 Buffalo W (1-3)
Week 05 BYE
Week 06 @Washington L (1-4)
Week 07 Dallas L (1-5)
Week 08 @New Engalnd L (1-6)
Week 09 Arizona L (1-7)
Week 10 @NY Jets L (1-8)
Week 11 @San Francisco L (1-9)
Week 12 Chicago L (1-10)
Week 13 Miami L (1-11)
Week 14 @Arizona L (1-12)
Week 15 Seattle L (1-13)
Week 16 San Francisco W (2-13)
Week 17 @Atlanta W (3-13)

That's the crappy NFC West division, predicted record against non-NFC West teams, (09-31), I'll crank these out before Thursday's kick-off, the more divisions I do, the easier it'll get, since I'll have already made picks on most of the non-division books.

Season Preview, An Entire Season's Worth of NFL Related Humiliation, Part 1 --- NFC East

(Teams listed alphabetically)

Dallas Cowboys O/U 11 wins, my total 13
They should be pretty good this year, how good? Howabout 13-3 good (8-0 at home 5-3 on the road), that's how good, home field throughout the NFC playoffs, and a Superbowl appearance.

Week 01 @Cleveland W (1-0)
Week 02 Philadephia W (2-0)
Week 03 @Green Bay W (3-0)
Week 04 Washington W (4-0)
Week 05 Cincinnati W (5-0)
Week 06 @Arizona L (5-1)
Week 07 @St.Louis W(6-1)
Week 08 Tampa Bay W (7-1)
Week 09 @NY Giants W (8-1)
Week 10 BYE
Week 11 @Washington L (8-2)
Week 12 San Francisco W (9-2)
Week 13 Seattle W (10-2)
Week 14 @Pittsburgh W (11-2)
Week 15 NY Giants W (12-2)
Week 16 Baltimore W (13-2)
Week 17 @Philadelphia L (13-3)

NY Giants O/U 9 wins, my total 3
They sucked last year, most of the time, their entire season should have fallen apart in that game in DC, but they turned things around in that game, and the entire rest of the season, they won't be so lucky in 08. It's going to be an abyssmal year, from Superbowl Champs to 3-13 and last place in the NFC East, with a perfect 0-6 record against division opponents. All those Eli & Peyton ads that are running this season will be Peyton only ads again next year.

Week 01 Washington L (0-1)
Week 02 @St.Louis W (1-1)
Week 03 Cincinnati L (1-2)
Week 04 BYE
Week 05 Seattle L (1-3)
Week 06 Cleveland L (1-4)
Week 07 San Francisco W (2-4)
Week 08 @Pittsburgh L (2-5)
Week 09 Dallas L (2-6)
Week 10 @Philadelphia L (2-7)
Week 11 Baltimore W (3-7)
Week 12 @Arizona L (3-8)
Week 13 @Washington L (3-9)
Week 14 Philadephia L (3-10)
Week 15 @Dallas L (3-11)
Week 16 Carolina L (3-12)
Week 17 @Minnesota L (3-13)

Philadephia Eagles O/U 8.5 wins, my total 10
It's gonna be a good season for the Iggles. McNabb will be solid, and their defense is always stellar. Too bad Dallas and Washington will be just a bit better, solid year, and at 10-6 they ought to be the other wildcard (along with Washington) in the NFC. UPDATE: Scratch the playoff talk, Tampa's going to edge them out for the last wildcard, hadn't completed the entire division before this write-up, didn't think another non-division winner would be better than 10-6, but I think the NFC South will be pretty strong this year.

Week 01 St.Louis W (1-0)
Week 02 @Dallas L (1-1)
Week 03 Pittsburgh L (1-2)
Week 04 @Chicago W (2-2)
Week 05 Washington W (3-2)
Week 06 @San Francisco W (4-2)
Week 07 BYE
Week 08 Atlanta W (5-2)
Week 09 @Seattle L (5-3)
Week 10 NY Giants W (6-3)
Week 11 @Cincinnati L (6-4)
Week 12 @Baltimore W (7-4)
Week 13 Arizona L (7-5)
Week 14 @NY Giants W (8-5)
Week 15 Cleveland W (9-5)
Week 16 @Washington L (9-6)
Week 17 Dallas W (10-6)

Washington O/U 8 wins, my total 11
They should make the playoffs again this year, again as a wildcard, though. Jason Campbell should make the leap to one of the top six QBs in the league, and their defense will be stingy. 11-5 and one of the wildcard spots while rolling into the playoffs on an 8 game win streak.

Week 01 @NY Giants W (1-0)
Week 02 New Orleans L (1-1)
Week 03 Arizona W (2-1)
Week 04 @Dallas L (2-2)
Week 05 @Philadelphia L (2-3)
Week 06 St.Louis W (3-3)
Week 07 Cleveland L (3-4)
Week 08 @Detroit L (3-5)
Week 09 Pittsburgh W (4-5)
Week 10 BYE
Week 11 Dallas W (5-5)
Week 12 @Seattle W (6-5)
Week 13 NY Giants W (7-5)
Week 14 @Baltimore W (8-5)
Week 15 @Cincinnati W (9-5)
Week 16 Philadelphia W (10-5)
Week 17 @San Francisco W (11-5)

So that's the NFC East, they'll account for 3 2 of the 6 NFC Playoff teams, along with the top seed, the only crap team in the division, those Superbowl Champion NY Giants.

UPDATE: Just realized I could give this a betting spin, I'm going to compare my win total for each team with the current over and under line on season win totals as listed at VegasInsider.com in their FutureBook Odds. That number isn't meant to be an exact prediction of each team's performance, just a number they put up where they can expect about an even amount of money to be bet on either side of the line. It's as close as you'll get to anyone else making a pre-season prediction on each team's win totals though, so for my purposes it's a good number to reference.

02 September 2008

The Most Humiliating Series of Posts, Ever. Predicting the Entire Football Season Before the First Kick Off . . .

Today and tomorrow I'm going to scour the schedule, and make my straight wins and losses picks for every game of the football season. I'll divide this into eight posts, one for each division. Clip and save, cause by the end of the year, I'll look like a fool.