25 September 2009

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation: Week 3, The Picks

BS: Here

My picks (Home teams ALL CAPS)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-4) over Atlanta Falcons (BS ATL)
Tennessee Titans (+2.5) over NY JETS (BS TEN)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-6) over Miami Dolphins (BS MIA)
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1.5) over Indianapolis Colts (BS IND)
DALLAS COWBOYS (-9) over Carolina Panthers (BS CAR)

In what bizarro world do I pick the Pats and BS doesn't? This is the week that he goes down in flames, and I correct my losing ways. The Pats will put together a decent game, and Atlanta will struggle on the road, Pats will cover easily. The Titans will have no trouble in the Meadowlands as they beat a Jets team that will believe too much of its good press. The Chargers will roll, give the hometown fans something to cheer about, while Miami will have trouble running against the Bolts' defense. In the Sunday Night game, the Cardinals will beat up on the Colts and control this game from start to finish on both sides of the ball. On Monday night, Dallas, and Romo will settle down and play mistake free ball while romping against a crappy Panthers squad. Yes, the line is ridiculous in that game, but Dallas will still manage to put up over 30 points while Carolina will struggle to score more than 17, so that big spread isn't a problem.

Should be another entertaining week of football, so far this year, lots of excitement, especially in the night games. Don't think that trend will last this week as both night games will be routs, but maybe next week...

Also, it looks like the playoff picture is already taking shape. I have a feeling all five 2-0 teams in the NFC (NYG, MIN, ATL, NO, SF) are making the playoffs, and all four 0-2 teams are headed for awful seasons, so that leaves just one berth being fought over between Dallas, Philly, Green Bay, Chicago, and Arizona (DC and Seattle don't count, they aren't doing anything this season). Dallas and Philly are hurt by being in the best division in the NFC, so anything better than a 9-7 record will be a struggle, which will doom their wildcard shot. I think Green Bay or Chicago should put together a 10-6 season, which should give either of them the last wildcard, leaving the defending NFC Champs sitting home. So my prediction for playoff teams after two weeks of NFL action looks like this for the NFC

Division winners NYG, MIN, NO, SF with ATL and GB picking up the wildcard slots. I think NO will upset MIN in the Championship game making this Saints squad the first in team history to play in the Superbowl.

The AFC is slightly muddier. I think the Jets will continue to do what they're doing and win their division. Baltimore will rule in the AFC North, the Titans will turn things around while the Colts will sneak in with a wildcard, and the Chargers will easily win the AFC West with Denver snatching the other wildcard slot. Baltimore will earn homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and easily win both their games at home, against any possible opponents.

That sets up a classic Great Defense (Ravens) versuses a Great Offense (Saints) Superbowl this February. Should be fun. Current odds for Baltimore (according to Vegas Insider) are 15/2 to win the AFC, while New Orleans are at 10/1. Both those lines seem at odds with their performances so far this season. Strangely, New England remains the favorite to win the Superbowl at 4/1, even though they suck, while Pittsburgh is second choice at 15/2, and the Giants and Eagles are both 8/1 while the Chargers are 10/1. Both the Ravens at 18/1 and Saints at 20/1 aren't getting much Superbowl love from the oddsmakers at the moment, but that should change if they both keep posting impressive victories.

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