The latest meaningless statistic floating about is the 'sudden' drop in the U.S.A's ranking in life expectancy.
It's a very misleading number, for a number of reasons, but this is being used by advocates of more nannyism to promote more nannyism.
First of all, 77.9 ain't bad for life expectancy, but even that number is just being pulled out of thin air. The very top is 83.5 for Andorra, which isn't particularly different in quantity. If someone dies before their 84th birthday, do you say they died too soon? Do you think someone who dies before blowing out 78 candles was stricken too early? Didn't think so. Anything past 75 is a full life. Some people pack more living in their years than others, but basically, any healthy years past the age of 75 is pure gravy (and death before 75 is too soon).
But the number is still a lie. One of the bigger components dragging down the USA's number compared to other developed (and under-developed nations) is the way we count infant mortality. We count 'live births' differently than the rest of the world, and babies that would never be delivered elsewhere, get delivered here. That alone could account for the difference between the USA and France, UK, or Germany. We have the highest infant mortality rate because we count every infant. Europe doesn't, a lot of cases that they consider 'stillbirths' are full term or close to full term babies. Their lower rate of premies isn't necessarily cause of better neo-natal care, but because their view of 'viability' is completely different, and they are much quicker to abort fetuses for medical reasons (even in the 2nd and 3rd trimester).
The European view on this is more 'pragmatic', which makes comparing health statistics impossible when there's such a huge cultural difference in this area of medicine (the wiki explains the difference succinctly) pure bunk. I bet if we were to count all women who enter the 3rd trimester and then compared survivability one year out, suddenly the European mortality rate would look worse if not comparable to the USA's. But they don't keep that statistic, so there's no way to do the comparison.
I haven't seen a single article mentioning the new US ranking that brings up the huge differences in reporting on infant mortality, though they do mention how our 'high' infant mortality rate factors into our lower life expectancy at birth.
Also, how accurate is life expectancy at birth? It's not outside the realm of possibility that some children born in 2004 may end up living in some form or another well beyond 'natural' life spans. Read enough sci-fi, and you can start to believe that within 75 years downloading of consciousness into a neural net, or transferring consciousness from an older body to a younger body is an achievable goal. Look where technology was 75 years ago, and given the exponential rate at which certain technologies advance, the possibility that real life extension (turning life spans into centuries rather than decades), might be possible. There are a few non-nut doctors out their who are working on 'curing' aging.
And if aging does get 'cured' I bet there will be plenty of Americans lined up to get cured. So the real average life expectancy for an American kid born in 2004 could end up being well beyond 77.9, if the aging cure ends up not being ridiculously expensive, then a significant portion (at least significant enough to greatly alter the average) of Americans born in 2004 might still be around in 2400.
The mind boggles, but I'd rather think about that than use some dumb easily manipulated statistic that relies on governments to report on themselves to tell us that we're 'slipping' compared to the rest of the world.
I've already heard some folks use this as another cudgel with which to beat us into submission on the notion that nationalized and socialized medicine is superior.
Yet I don't see anyone looking at how many of those countries ahead of us in life expectancy also 'lead' us in percentage of the population who smokes. Maybe we just need to smoke more. Seems to work for Japan.
And one more thing, another thing needlessly brought up in this article is the disparity between 'black' and 'white' life expectancies. You want to 'cure' that disparity, then legalize drugs. Much of the disparity is due to the violence and incarceration targeting black men associated with the drug trade. Make the drugs legal, and the street crime, and disparity in death rate will evaporate (though some extra OD deaths may occur, I would guess that this increase would be less significant than the much greater drop in deaths due to illicit drug trade related gun play).
So these are my conclusions, if you want the USA to climb up this chart again, legalize drugs, game our infant mortality statistics the same way Europe does, and don't over-regulate biomedical research. Do those things, and we'll be number one (or at least number eleven) again in no time.
09 August 2007
If I Were Still Doing the 'Gobsmacked' Gimmick, the Videos Linked Here, Definitely Would Qualify . . .
07 August 2007
Phil Jackson, Zen Master?
06 August 2007
Remembering Hiroshima . . .
. . . 62 years ago, an atomic bomb was used in war. Only one other has been used since. Remarkable when you think about it. Likely, the uniqueness of Hiroshima and Nagasaki will be a distant memory.
The strange situation we have found ourselves in is that the end of the Cold War ended the strong threat of global destruction at the click of the button, but ever since the likelihood that some nation (and even worse, some non-state actor) will fling a nuclear device at another increases every year.
If we make it to 75 years since Hiroshima without another nuclear event, that'd be remarkable. If we make it to 100 years after Hiroshima without another bomb being dropped in anger, that'd be miraculous.
Still, President Truman made the right call, the only decision he could make. The bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives, both American and Japanese, a long prolonged invasion of Mainland Japan would have greatly altered the post-war landscape. The bombs punctuated Japan's defeat, without that punctuation they might have fought to the bitter end and resisted any subsequent occupation.
The victims in those cities shouldn't be mourned any less, and the horror of nuclear weapons shouldn't be discounted, but it will always remain the right thing to have done.
The strange situation we have found ourselves in is that the end of the Cold War ended the strong threat of global destruction at the click of the button, but ever since the likelihood that some nation (and even worse, some non-state actor) will fling a nuclear device at another increases every year.
If we make it to 75 years since Hiroshima without another nuclear event, that'd be remarkable. If we make it to 100 years after Hiroshima without another bomb being dropped in anger, that'd be miraculous.
Still, President Truman made the right call, the only decision he could make. The bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives, both American and Japanese, a long prolonged invasion of Mainland Japan would have greatly altered the post-war landscape. The bombs punctuated Japan's defeat, without that punctuation they might have fought to the bitter end and resisted any subsequent occupation.
The victims in those cities shouldn't be mourned any less, and the horror of nuclear weapons shouldn't be discounted, but it will always remain the right thing to have done.
Your Home For News on Stephen Tobolowsky . . .
. . . that's right, I've decided to turn this into one of those celebrity sighting blogs, only it will only be celebs I see personally, and within a few blocks of my own house.
That might limit the scope of this blog, but the first such celeb I have for you is a good one.
I spotted Needle Nose Ned Ryerson as I was walking home (I'm so damn green, it's not even funny) this afternoon. He's one of the few actors I've seen (Daniel Stern the other) who look taller in person than on film. I was this close to walking up to him, glad handing him and calling him Ned.
He didn't look like he was in the mood to deal with that though, so I just let him be. Not like Groundhog Day is the only thing he's been in, he was great in Deadwood, among many other things, but forever he'll be Ned
Old Needle Nose is good and all, but I'm hoping the next report will be about bumping into the newly single Jessica Alba at my local coffee shop (and having a long flirtatious conversation that ends in exchanged digits).
05 August 2007
What He Lacks in Coherence, He More Than Makes Up For in Insanity . . .
Ahhh, Steven Weber, how do I love thee, let me count the ways . . .
Here's some highlights of his most recent missive entitled, "Getting It Off My Chest (or Channeling Andy Rooney On Peyote)"
My take-away from that paragraph is that Steven Weber will never be doing a 'full frontal' scene. Personally, I'm relieved, and not at all disappointed.
My take-away from that paragraph is, 'Huhh?!?'. It's really like that? I'd buy myself some land in Costa Rica, stock it with Bond-Villain style concubine/bodyguards and leave Ameruhkkka to the fundanutters if I believed as Steven Weber seems to believe.
In the Weberverse, the draft is clearly still on, and aging passive-aggressive comedic character actors have the highest lottery numbers. Uncle Jam wants you Steven Weber, he wants you to Funk With Him.
I realise Weber is low hanging fruit (or given his inadequate genitalia, not so low hanging), but sometimes it's fun to examine just what is coming out of the fevered swamp of 'progressive-land'.
If somehow the Democrats keep hold the legislative and win the executive branch of government in 2008, I can gaurantee I'll have some pointed comments to make about the legislation they're likely to pass, but I can't imagine every spewing this sort of sputtery nonsense, or display a hatred towards the people that elected them.
This is mainly here as a reminder to all those in "fly-over" land, that the folks that surround me in La-La Land and work in the Dream Factory really hate you, deeply, passionately, and would ignore you completely if they didn't want your money so damn bad. If films that only played on the coasts could gross $250M instead of struggling to make $5M then you'd never see a 'crowd-pleasing' blockbuster again. But they'll sneak as much America-hating rhetoric into the margins of those films as they can get away with. Ex-military always have PTSD and are a little too gun crazy. There's always corruption at the top. Hot chicks always work for 'progressive' causes. And it's always about THE OIL.
They can't comprehend why all you 'non-coastals' haven't embraced every 'progressive' position and whim over the past few decades (they've implanted those concepts in every conceivable media, yet you still resist, why?), and they really can't understand how you could find Jeff Foxworthy entertaining (OK, I'm with my La-La brethren on that one, but that doesn't mean I hate y'all).
Here's some highlights of his most recent missive entitled, "Getting It Off My Chest (or Channeling Andy Rooney On Peyote)"
I hate these fucks, with their secret agendas and insatiable thirsts to control all the energy and all the money and all the people. I loathe them for not being able to cope with inadequate genitalia. If I can, you can! Jesus, get over it!
My take-away from that paragraph is that Steven Weber will never be doing a 'full frontal' scene. Personally, I'm relieved, and not at all disappointed.
It's strange to me how it's all come to this. It would be as if the affable owner of a general store where everyone in the neighborhood bought their goods and sundries, this guy who knew you by your first name and patted kids on the head and didn't crap a flat tire if you needed some credit, all of a sudden felt that it was utter anathema to have such a calling and shifted from avuncular to nucular overnight, charging exorbitant fees for bubble gum and isopropyl alcohol and taking it upon himself to torch the competing establishment a block away. And then somehow blame his customers for it.
My take-away from that paragraph is, 'Huhh?!?'. It's really like that? I'd buy myself some land in Costa Rica, stock it with Bond-Villain style concubine/bodyguards and leave Ameruhkkka to the fundanutters if I believed as Steven Weber seems to believe.
And why are all the assholes in charge? Why do they have all the guns and conscripted armies and get to go to summits and fund weapons research? How about developing a music gun? Or a fruit bomb? Drop some fucking fruit bombs on pissed off radicals and get 'em all hopped up on vitamin c and anti-oxidents or whatever the hell and just call it a day? And if the douchebags really want to they can wear crowns or sashes or tiny flag lapel pins if it makes 'em feel like big men.
In the Weberverse, the draft is clearly still on, and aging passive-aggressive comedic character actors have the highest lottery numbers. Uncle Jam wants you Steven Weber, he wants you to Funk With Him.
I realise Weber is low hanging fruit (or given his inadequate genitalia, not so low hanging), but sometimes it's fun to examine just what is coming out of the fevered swamp of 'progressive-land'.
If somehow the Democrats keep hold the legislative and win the executive branch of government in 2008, I can gaurantee I'll have some pointed comments to make about the legislation they're likely to pass, but I can't imagine every spewing this sort of sputtery nonsense, or display a hatred towards the people that elected them.
This is mainly here as a reminder to all those in "fly-over" land, that the folks that surround me in La-La Land and work in the Dream Factory really hate you, deeply, passionately, and would ignore you completely if they didn't want your money so damn bad. If films that only played on the coasts could gross $250M instead of struggling to make $5M then you'd never see a 'crowd-pleasing' blockbuster again. But they'll sneak as much America-hating rhetoric into the margins of those films as they can get away with. Ex-military always have PTSD and are a little too gun crazy. There's always corruption at the top. Hot chicks always work for 'progressive' causes. And it's always about THE OIL.
They can't comprehend why all you 'non-coastals' haven't embraced every 'progressive' position and whim over the past few decades (they've implanted those concepts in every conceivable media, yet you still resist, why?), and they really can't understand how you could find Jeff Foxworthy entertaining (OK, I'm with my La-La brethren on that one, but that doesn't mean I hate y'all).
03 August 2007
'He Got a Bruised Liver, a Bruised Lung, and a Silver'
(the title pulled from what I think J.A. Adande said while filling in on PTI today)
Insanity, pure insanity, that he was able to get up shortly after this can only be attributed to his athleticism, the angle at which he struck, and dumb luck.
I wouldn't have shown it if his injuries were worse, when you first see Jake Brown's sickening fall, it's pretty shocking, and a commenter over at Gawker (not known for their X-Games coverage, but some things transcend categories) who says they were at Staples when it happens hints at what it must have felt like to watch it live:
The Summer X-Games have made Los Angeles their home and will be here again for at least 2008 and 2009. It's become a pretty big event around here. L.A. really is Sportstown USA.
And above is the video of the trick Brown pulled off earlier where nothing bad happened.
And while I am at it, here's some video of Sal Masekela's (X-Games Host) dad blowing his horn (no grass was grazed in the above performance, but it was in this one (audio only, video doesn't directly match audio))
Insanity, pure insanity, that he was able to get up shortly after this can only be attributed to his athleticism, the angle at which he struck, and dumb luck.
I wouldn't have shown it if his injuries were worse, when you first see Jake Brown's sickening fall, it's pretty shocking, and a commenter over at Gawker (not known for their X-Games coverage, but some things transcend categories) who says they were at Staples when it happens hints at what it must have felt like to watch it live:
BY LITTLE MINTZ SUNSHINE AT 02:22 PM I only wish I had seen it on tv but I was sitting in a suite right at the pipe and saw it happen. It was a horrifying thing to see and I'm still trying to get the "thud" sound out of my head. Needless to say, the suite fridge was cleaned out of booze immediately after he dragged his damaged internal organs off the pipe
The Summer X-Games have made Los Angeles their home and will be here again for at least 2008 and 2009. It's become a pretty big event around here. L.A. really is Sportstown USA.
And above is the video of the trick Brown pulled off earlier where nothing bad happened.
And while I am at it, here's some video of Sal Masekela's (X-Games Host) dad blowing his horn (no grass was grazed in the above performance, but it was in this one (audio only, video doesn't directly match audio))
Some Details From Private Beauchamp's Next Piece for The New Republic
According to one source, the tale that Private Scott Beauchamp about the disfigured woman in the mess hall is an urban legend (hat tip LGF, and like all urban legends there may be a grain of truth surrounded by a bushel of hype and overstatement).
In his next dispatch expect tales of bored soldiers handing out Pop Rocks and Pepsi to Iraqi children, encouraging them to consume them together, and laugh in glee as the kiddies stomachs explode.
In another incident, Private Beauchamp details his involvement in a psy-ops campaign using pig's blood and parts as a threat against Islamic extremists.
In his next dispatch expect tales of bored soldiers handing out Pop Rocks and Pepsi to Iraqi children, encouraging them to consume them together, and laugh in glee as the kiddies stomachs explode.
In another incident, Private Beauchamp details his involvement in a psy-ops campaign using pig's blood and parts as a threat against Islamic extremists.
Once Again, House Democrats Making Me Look Prescient.
In the aftermath of the '06 election I had this to say:
The mess (hat tip Instapundit) in the House last night would seem to reinforce the idea that the Dems are turning their '06 victory into an '08 defeat. Those moderates who gained seats for the Dems in closely matched districts will most likely have to defend their association with the Pelosi wing of their own party, and if the GOP is smart, they'll run moderates against them in those districts, giving voters a chance to keep a moderate path while punishing the party in power. That's what worked in '06 for the Dems, and it could work again in '08 for the GOP.
Trying to think of the right analogy for what seems likely to happen over the next two years, one thing comes to mind over and over.
King Pyrrhus and his triumphs over the Romans at Heraclea.
Because of Plutarch, his 'victories' have become part of our language.
Judging from the early scuttlebutt regarding committee and leadership battles within the Democratic party, and also the legislative agenda they seem intent on pushing, the phrase Phyrric Victory may soon be replaced by a phrase such as Getting Pelosi'd.
The Democrats won this battle, and won decisively, but the fundamental problems within the Democratic Party that have caused a permanent shift in the American political landscape are unchanged, and by the looks of things, are likely to get even worse.
Republicans were defeated in this election, but not Conservatism. Democrats were victorious, but not Liberalism. Nobody in the Democratic leadership in DC seem aware of this, however.
Too many Republicans got too lazy and corrupt due to a belief that Democratic incompetence would save them from themselves. It nearly did, a split Congress was close to a reality despite the advantages the Democrats enjoyed this go round.
The mess (hat tip Instapundit) in the House last night would seem to reinforce the idea that the Dems are turning their '06 victory into an '08 defeat. Those moderates who gained seats for the Dems in closely matched districts will most likely have to defend their association with the Pelosi wing of their own party, and if the GOP is smart, they'll run moderates against them in those districts, giving voters a chance to keep a moderate path while punishing the party in power. That's what worked in '06 for the Dems, and it could work again in '08 for the GOP.
02 August 2007
Your Perez Hilton Link of the Day . . .
. . . I haven't linked to Perez Hilton before, his gimmick of crude drawings on photos doesn't impress me. But I do like his take on Hugo Chavez meeting with Sean Penn.
Lots of defenders of the Líder Máximo, Jr. abound in Perez's comment section, though (and Spicoli is still a useful idiot).
Lots of defenders of the Líder Máximo, Jr. abound in Perez's comment section, though (and Spicoli is still a useful idiot).
I'm Well On My Way to Becoming Steven Weber's Biggest Fan!!!
If it's the case -- and hell, we're talking about the Bush administration here! -- then that can only mean the short, exciting life of the United States is almost at an end. Because it is become insane. And its leaders are amoral. And its actions are erratic. And its last days will be spent cringing angrily, clinging to souvenirs of victories past.From Steven Weber's HuffPo post about Pat Tillman. I couldn't dream of coming up with rhetoric that ridiculous while satirizing insane left-think in a million years. I am in awe of his lack of reality (wait, sorry, he's 'reality based').
I think he's secretly a conservative, and only pretends to be an insane lefty in order to discredit that viewpoint. I can't explain this level of hatred otherwise. In a few short paragraphs his incandescent, unhinged, unreasoning, and immature tantrum about the current administration perfectly distills all that's wrong with 'progressive' America-hating paranoia.
Bravo to you Mr. Weber, you are the Maestro, again, Bravo!, Bravo!!, Bravo!!!
"And it will guarantee him better restaurants and perhaps better looking Chinese girlfriend."
Quoted in the Journal Times in Racine regarding why Yi Jianlian is looking to force a trade to a city with a larger Chinese presence than Milwaukee.
I'm pretty sure L.A. has both in abundance, and we have two NBA teams, if he won't play for the Bucks, surely a deal with the Clippers or Lakers makes sense for all parties involved.
Now this bit is for Yi, you already conduct interviews in English, so I assume you can read our simple language by now. If you want Chinese cuties, they can be found all over the LA Basin, but for the biggest concentration head over to Monterey Park, Alhambra and Rosemead. Each community boasts over 40% of their population being Asian (mostly Chinese, with some Vietnamese for good measure). Even better, none of those places are more than 15 miles from Staples Center, so getting to the games should be a breeze (once you get used to our LA traffic). I'm sure there's a few tall, attractive Chinese native, or first, or second generation girls who would be happy to help with your improving English fluency. Noticed on your wiki that you are a native Cantonese speaker though you are also Mandarin fluent. As it so happens, the LA Chinese communities is one of the places where Cantonese still predominates, so our Chinese cuties might make the transition to English for you a little easier. As far as the quality of the cuties, here's the homepage for the Miss Los Angeles Chinatown competition, judge for yourself.
As far as restaurants go, we have good Chinese restaurants, some very authentic, others kitschy, others grungy, but where LA cuisine shines is in the "fusion" places that meld flavors and styles from all over Asia. Once you've had traditional Chinese fair prepared with a Thai flare or a Japanese sense of balance, you'll forget about going to a straight up Chinese restaurant for awhile. But if straight up Chinese fare is what you're after, you could do worse than Hop Woo (three locations to serve you, one close to Staples center in Chinatown, one in Alhambra, and one on the Westside, in case you decide to live near the beach). If you want to bump into famous folks, than head over to Mr Chow in Beverly Hills, but if you're smart, you'll go for one of the better fusion places like the magnificent Yamashiro high in the Hollywood hills (with spectacular views to match). But if you must stick to the Chinese food and like your shrimp slippery, then check out Yang Chow.
So, Yi, keep fighting to get to a big market like Los Angeles, you won't find anything like these places (and the selection of attractive Chinese women will also be limited) in Milwaukee. Stick with it, the Lakers couldn't get KG, but maybe the Lakers can still swing a deal to bring you, the "Chinese KG" to the Lakers.
And who would you rather play with, Kobe Bryant in the sunshine (video reminder of what he can do here), the best player on the globe right now, or Andrew Bogut near the frozen tundra?
I'm pretty sure L.A. has both in abundance, and we have two NBA teams, if he won't play for the Bucks, surely a deal with the Clippers or Lakers makes sense for all parties involved.
Now this bit is for Yi, you already conduct interviews in English, so I assume you can read our simple language by now. If you want Chinese cuties, they can be found all over the LA Basin, but for the biggest concentration head over to Monterey Park, Alhambra and Rosemead. Each community boasts over 40% of their population being Asian (mostly Chinese, with some Vietnamese for good measure). Even better, none of those places are more than 15 miles from Staples Center, so getting to the games should be a breeze (once you get used to our LA traffic). I'm sure there's a few tall, attractive Chinese native, or first, or second generation girls who would be happy to help with your improving English fluency. Noticed on your wiki that you are a native Cantonese speaker though you are also Mandarin fluent. As it so happens, the LA Chinese communities is one of the places where Cantonese still predominates, so our Chinese cuties might make the transition to English for you a little easier. As far as the quality of the cuties, here's the homepage for the Miss Los Angeles Chinatown competition, judge for yourself.
As far as restaurants go, we have good Chinese restaurants, some very authentic, others kitschy, others grungy, but where LA cuisine shines is in the "fusion" places that meld flavors and styles from all over Asia. Once you've had traditional Chinese fair prepared with a Thai flare or a Japanese sense of balance, you'll forget about going to a straight up Chinese restaurant for awhile. But if straight up Chinese fare is what you're after, you could do worse than Hop Woo (three locations to serve you, one close to Staples center in Chinatown, one in Alhambra, and one on the Westside, in case you decide to live near the beach). If you want to bump into famous folks, than head over to Mr Chow in Beverly Hills, but if you're smart, you'll go for one of the better fusion places like the magnificent Yamashiro high in the Hollywood hills (with spectacular views to match). But if you must stick to the Chinese food and like your shrimp slippery, then check out Yang Chow.
So, Yi, keep fighting to get to a big market like Los Angeles, you won't find anything like these places (and the selection of attractive Chinese women will also be limited) in Milwaukee. Stick with it, the Lakers couldn't get KG, but maybe the Lakers can still swing a deal to bring you, the "Chinese KG" to the Lakers.
And who would you rather play with, Kobe Bryant in the sunshine (video reminder of what he can do here), the best player on the globe right now, or Andrew Bogut near the frozen tundra?
The Good Thing About Living In Earthquake Country . . .
. . . is that, for the most part, bridges, overpasses and such are "over" engineered for normal use. It's unknown what the specific causes were for the terrible bridge collapse in Minneapolis (a good starting point for coverage is Buzz.mn, a good place to marvel at the disgusting nature of some people on the internet is the comment section at HuffPo).
Not that our infrastructure is perfect in CA, freeways have buckled, and bridges have collapsed here, too (though I don't recall that happening without a proximal cause such as quake, or tanker fire), failure in all human systems is inevitable, and usually the decision making process that lead to the failure was reasonable, yet somehow flawed. It's hard to fix, and even inspect systems that are under continuous heavy use, yet that's what we do with all sorts of infrastructure. It's not a uniquely American problem, it's a human problem. Stuff happens, often for cause, causes that were foreseeable and obvious in retrospect, but hindsight, as they say, is done by asses.
Seems like the 2006 inspection of this particular bridge will get heavily scrutinized now, but it's likely that despite the problems spotted, there was nothing remarkably different about this bridge than all the other similar spans (which is why they figured it was solid without major review until 2020). Had some engineer suggested shutting down every such span and working every flaw till each was perfect, that engineer would be called a Cassandra, and unrealistic. Yet, most likely some Cassandra will step forward and claim they were prevented from doing just that.
Speaking of "The Logic of Failure", I recommend the book by that title. It's a bit dense, a bit jargon heavy, and it's translated from the German so some of the language gets a bit tortured. But as a short (yet thorough) examination of decision making and the use of computers to model behavior, it's a damn fine read.
Humans are flawed, especially when it comes to assessing long term risks. Certain fallacies crop up again and again in a variety of situations, but the psychology behind these faults are often the same, the book mentioned lays this out in detail. Pick it up at your local library, or order it from Amazon, it shouldn't disappoint.
Also, Tammy Bruce has a good post about not posting about this immediately. There's really nothing to say other than to be thankful if you weren't affected, be thoughtful for the ones that were, and be mindful that now isn't the time for judgement and recrimination.
James Lileks is probably getting traffic to Buzz.mn like never before (most every blogger I've read link him when mentioning this story, for the blogosphere Lileks=Minneapolis and Minneapolis=Lileks, Buzz.mn probably wouldn't have accrued all that benefit had Lileks not taken over 8 weeks ago), and I'm sure he'd trade every last eyeball, and all past and future eyeballs for a way to go back and prevent this from having happened.
(and it's probably true what Douglas Adams said about time travel, the main problem with it is grammatical, though some are attempting to create a framework for discussion)
Not that our infrastructure is perfect in CA, freeways have buckled, and bridges have collapsed here, too (though I don't recall that happening without a proximal cause such as quake, or tanker fire), failure in all human systems is inevitable, and usually the decision making process that lead to the failure was reasonable, yet somehow flawed. It's hard to fix, and even inspect systems that are under continuous heavy use, yet that's what we do with all sorts of infrastructure. It's not a uniquely American problem, it's a human problem. Stuff happens, often for cause, causes that were foreseeable and obvious in retrospect, but hindsight, as they say, is done by asses.
Seems like the 2006 inspection of this particular bridge will get heavily scrutinized now, but it's likely that despite the problems spotted, there was nothing remarkably different about this bridge than all the other similar spans (which is why they figured it was solid without major review until 2020). Had some engineer suggested shutting down every such span and working every flaw till each was perfect, that engineer would be called a Cassandra, and unrealistic. Yet, most likely some Cassandra will step forward and claim they were prevented from doing just that.
Speaking of "The Logic of Failure", I recommend the book by that title. It's a bit dense, a bit jargon heavy, and it's translated from the German so some of the language gets a bit tortured. But as a short (yet thorough) examination of decision making and the use of computers to model behavior, it's a damn fine read.
Humans are flawed, especially when it comes to assessing long term risks. Certain fallacies crop up again and again in a variety of situations, but the psychology behind these faults are often the same, the book mentioned lays this out in detail. Pick it up at your local library, or order it from Amazon, it shouldn't disappoint.
Also, Tammy Bruce has a good post about not posting about this immediately. There's really nothing to say other than to be thankful if you weren't affected, be thoughtful for the ones that were, and be mindful that now isn't the time for judgement and recrimination.
James Lileks is probably getting traffic to Buzz.mn like never before (most every blogger I've read link him when mentioning this story, for the blogosphere Lileks=Minneapolis and Minneapolis=Lileks, Buzz.mn probably wouldn't have accrued all that benefit had Lileks not taken over 8 weeks ago), and I'm sure he'd trade every last eyeball, and all past and future eyeballs for a way to go back and prevent this from having happened.
(and it's probably true what Douglas Adams said about time travel, the main problem with it is grammatical, though some are attempting to create a framework for discussion)
01 August 2007
A Reform Scheme That I Might Have Come Up With . . .
. . . an un-modest proposal in California threatens to shake up national electoral politics. From a national election standpoint the passage of an initiative that made the largest state in the nation a non-winner take all state, would be disastrous for the Democratic party.
Given that this state leans strongly Democratic now, it would seem this has little chance to pass, but there are ways to sell this. Here's the bullet points for presenting this proposal to all voters (but especially independents and non-hardcore Democrats, presumably Republicans should be thrilled with the idea and should support it en masse)
As far as fairness goes, it was the Democratic party after 2000 that suggested a national winner take all election would be fairer. If California 'disarms' unilaterally, it will put a great deal of pressure on other states to follow suit. Allocating electors by Congressional district would be the simplest way to get closer to a national popular election, which Sen. Clinton, Sen. Obama and others have argued for in the past.
If each district is contested, then fewer people will perceive their vote as 'not counting'. That should be a strong selling point for this proposal. It's also a party neutral selling point.
Making California matter in the national election should be an easy selling point for all Californians, regardless of party. CA hasn't had a closely contested presidential election since 1976, and California has never factored into electoral politics. The few close elections in CA haven't effected the national results. Going to a system where each district is contested (and the overall winner gets a bonus of 2 electors), would mean that California's voters would be crucial for candidates of either party, and would matter in most every future election. We write the checks that finance these campaigns, it's about time they're forced to spend some of that loot on our airwaves.
Folks tend to complain about gerrymandering, yet there's no strong incentive for our state legislature to refrain from this undemocratic process. If the districts factor into the presidential vote, the party in power would want to have fewer 'safe' districts and make many more districts competitive (right now, there are no competitive districts in CA), instead of designing a bunch of 65-35 districts that favor either Republicans or Democrats, the Dems in the legislature might be pressured to make much more balanced districts giving a national candidate a chance in 'GOP' districts (and by doing so, they'd be forced to make fewer strongly 'Dem' districts).
Here's a link to the PDF of the actual initiative, it's a work in progress, and may not qualify for the ballot, but I suspect that this proposal will make it on the ballot for the next election and the serious problem this presents for 'progressives' can best be illustrated by this histrionic article from the New Yorker.
(as a footnote, I should add, it would be idiotic for any large state to unilaterally 'disarm' where the electoral college is concerned, but that doesn't mean I can't root for idiocy, and just cause it would be idiotic from a realpolitik standpoint, doesn't mean you can't sell this issue on the bullet points above, voters in the aggregate tend to ignore realpolitik and vote based on personal perceptions of fairness)
Given that this state leans strongly Democratic now, it would seem this has little chance to pass, but there are ways to sell this. Here's the bullet points for presenting this proposal to all voters (but especially independents and non-hardcore Democrats, presumably Republicans should be thrilled with the idea and should support it en masse)
- Fairness
- Should increase voter participation
- Force candidates to campaign in California
- Strong disincentive for gerrymandering
As far as fairness goes, it was the Democratic party after 2000 that suggested a national winner take all election would be fairer. If California 'disarms' unilaterally, it will put a great deal of pressure on other states to follow suit. Allocating electors by Congressional district would be the simplest way to get closer to a national popular election, which Sen. Clinton, Sen. Obama and others have argued for in the past.
If each district is contested, then fewer people will perceive their vote as 'not counting'. That should be a strong selling point for this proposal. It's also a party neutral selling point.
Making California matter in the national election should be an easy selling point for all Californians, regardless of party. CA hasn't had a closely contested presidential election since 1976, and California has never factored into electoral politics. The few close elections in CA haven't effected the national results. Going to a system where each district is contested (and the overall winner gets a bonus of 2 electors), would mean that California's voters would be crucial for candidates of either party, and would matter in most every future election. We write the checks that finance these campaigns, it's about time they're forced to spend some of that loot on our airwaves.
Folks tend to complain about gerrymandering, yet there's no strong incentive for our state legislature to refrain from this undemocratic process. If the districts factor into the presidential vote, the party in power would want to have fewer 'safe' districts and make many more districts competitive (right now, there are no competitive districts in CA), instead of designing a bunch of 65-35 districts that favor either Republicans or Democrats, the Dems in the legislature might be pressured to make much more balanced districts giving a national candidate a chance in 'GOP' districts (and by doing so, they'd be forced to make fewer strongly 'Dem' districts).
Here's a link to the PDF of the actual initiative, it's a work in progress, and may not qualify for the ballot, but I suspect that this proposal will make it on the ballot for the next election and the serious problem this presents for 'progressives' can best be illustrated by this histrionic article from the New Yorker.
(as a footnote, I should add, it would be idiotic for any large state to unilaterally 'disarm' where the electoral college is concerned, but that doesn't mean I can't root for idiocy, and just cause it would be idiotic from a realpolitik standpoint, doesn't mean you can't sell this issue on the bullet points above, voters in the aggregate tend to ignore realpolitik and vote based on personal perceptions of fairness)
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