01 September 2007

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week One)

It's the new improved 2007 edition of Weekly NFL Related Humiliation. I'm sticking with five match-ups a week, all season. Makes doing this more manageable. To make things simple, It'll be the three games they show in the L.A. market during the day on Sunday (usually CBS and FOX alternate which gets to show two games), plus the Sunday and Monday night match-ups.

For weeks where they add Thursday or Saturday games, I'll just pick the 5 most intriguing match-ups.

For week one, NBC has a big NO at IND game on Thursday. The first Sunday has CBS broadcasting NE at NYJ while FOX shows PHI at GB and CHI at SD. The Sunday Night game on NBC is NYG at DAL, and Monday we have ESPN showing two games BAL at CIN and ARI at SF.

I'm going to ignore two of those games, it's opening week, so all sorts of bonus coverage, seven games are being broadcast instead of the usual five. I'm only going to pick five games a week, so I'll ignore New England at NYJ cause the Pats always leave me bewitched and befuddled. For the other game I'll ignore, I'm going with NYG at Dallas, cause I don't really care about either of those teams, and expect both of them to under perform as the season drags on. So, the picks are as follows (lines based off of the Leroy's lines as reported at vegasinsider.com as of 6:30pm PDT on Sat Sept 1, I'll add the link to the ESPN match-up boxes when they become available):

New Orleans at Indianapolis(-5.0): New Orleans +5.0
Indianapolis has lost some major pieces from their Superbowl winning team, and complacency has a habit of seeping in. New Orleans on the other hand either played way above their heads last year and were a fluke, or are a team on the rise. I'm going with team on the rise. I think the Saints will upset the defending champions on 'ring night', and do so with some ease. Side prediction, 2 TDs for Reggie Bush, and at least 2 interceptions for Peyton Manning.

Philadelphia at Green Bay(+3.0): Philadelphia -3.0
McNabb is healthy, and Favre is really, really old. Beyond the QBs, the Eagles should still have one of the better defenses while the Packers have an improving defense that might manage to keep scores low. But since Favre is going to turn the ball over plenty, they'll be on the field too much. Philly will win this, and cover the spread as a road favorite.

Chicago at San Diego(-6.0): San Diego -6.0
San Diego looks poised for success, but then they do have Norv Turner at head coach. Chicago looks ready to repeat as NFC Champions, but they do have Rex Grossman at QB. Which will screw up their team more? For this one game, I predict that the Grossman factor will outweigh the Turner factor and the Chargers will prevail by at least two touchdowns.

Baltimore at Cincinnati(-3.0): Cincinnati -3.0
This ought to be a good game. Cincinnati should improve over last seasons disappointing performance. Baltimore on the other hand were a regular season juggernaut only to find themselves get smoked in the playoffs. That Baltimore defense hasn't gotten any worse, and the offense ought to be good enough to put 17-20 points on any defense. 17 points ought to be enough most weeks. It won't be against Cincinnati at home, however. The Bengals will win a high scoring game. Expect a final score around 38-28 with the home crowd leaving happy.

Arizona at San Francisco(-3.0): Arizona +3.0
Arizona could win their division this year. I can't believe I just typed that. I'll erase that if they start out 0-6. But they won't. They're solid on both sides of the ball, should be able to run a balanced offense with James running well, and Leinart growing into his role as a star QB in the NFL. San Francisco isn't going to be awful, but Arizona is going to be much better with a new coach, and a new system. This week will be the first test.

Another prediction, either the Saints, or Jaguars will be in Southern California by 2011, quite possibly both teams (if both come, one will be in LA, the other in Orange County or the Inland Empire).

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