You know, I'd do a lot better if I picked the easier games each week. But that's not how I do things. There's a lot of uninteresting games this week. If you don't live in the contesting cities and care who wins between the Bills and the Lions or the Titans and the Redskins or the Texans and the Cowboys, then you need to get out more.
Four of the more intriguing contests this week are as follows
Seattle at St. Louis (+3)
Both teams only have one loss, surprisingly. Seattle was destroyed by Chicago in their last game and have had a bye week to recuperate. Either a bounce back, or more woes this week. St. Louis has an impressive 4-1 record, but other than Denver, they've beaten weak teams and their one loss is to the awful 49ers. Seattle has the kind of defense that can disrupt the hot Bolger and even though they will continue to miss Shaun Alexander for a few more weeks, they have enough other tools to handle a decent team on the road. I'll take the Seahawks and give up the points, and I'll do it with confidence.
NY Giants at Atlanta (-3)
The Giants have been up and down, alternating losses with victories this season. By that reasoning this would be a week for them to lose. I think Atlanta will oblige them. Atlanta has looked good each week, or so I've been told, the only week they've been shown in the LA market was the reopening of the Superdome, and the Saints were not to be denied that night. I still don't believe in a QB that can't pass the 10-15 strikes with consistency, but they have enough defense to stay close and be ready to take advantage of the eventual Giants mistakes on offense. Also, the Giants are a good defense, but a slow defense, just the kind that the Vick/Dunn duo will destroy on the ground. I expect another lousy day statistically for Vick as a passer, but a victory anway. I'll take Atlanta and not worry about giving up the points, they'll win by at least a touchdown.
Philadelphia at New Orleans (+3.5)
The Saints are unbeaten in the Superdome, and Philadelphia is riding high after winning the TO Bowl. Donovan McNabb is starting to look like a pretty good QB again, but the Eagles defense hasn't been exactly stingy. The Saints are better on defense than the Eagles right now and will have to rely on a big play on special teams or a big play on offense to put enough points on the board to keep up with the Eagles' offense. The Saints defense is actually pretty crappy except for when they aren't. They are terrible in the red zone, but improving. I think the Eagles are ripe for a let down, and New Orleans will continue to win at home (but not next week against Baltimore). I'll take New Orleans and the points and be happy about it.
Carolina at Baltimore (-3)
Baltimore got embarrassed on the road in Denver on Monday. So they have travel and a short week working against them. But, their offense isn't as bad as it looked on Monday, and their defense still looked terrific even in a loss, so expect them to turn things around and hold Carolina under 14 points. Carolina has a solid defense and not always productive offense as well. On the road I don't think their defense will be able to hold Baltimore under 20 points, and given that they are going to have trouble scoring themselves, look for them to slip back to .500. I'll take Baltimore and give up the points.
That's enough picking this week. So far no 4-0 weeks, but no 0-4 weeks, either.
And if nobody else is paying attention to this weekly feature, at least I'm amusing myself, so on it goes.
12 October 2006
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