27 October 2006

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week EIGHT)

Time to contemplate the NFL again. For this week's picks I'll chose the 5 games where both teams are at least 4-2 or better. I think if back in late August before the season started you were to predict which five games would feature such teams, these probably would not have been the five you selected, and if you said you would have, I'd call you a liar.

On to the picks.

Betting Line from Leroys via Vegasinsider.com again.

Baltimore at New Orleans (-2)
New Orleans (5-1) have been one of the better teams in the league and are unbeaten at home. Baltimore (4-2) is coming off of consecutive losses, and looks to be in some disarray on offense (nothing new there). McNair is coming back from a concussion and their are question marks whether he'll be ready to play in this game. I say yes, I'll take Baltimore in this one. The Saints are one of the best stories in football this season and look to be a legitimate playoff team, but something's got to give, and I think it will give in this game. Drew Brees has been terrific, but the Baltimore defense will knock him around and throw him out of his rhythm. Baltimore +2

Atlanta at Cincinatti (-3.5)
Atlanta (4-2) are lucky to have only two losses this season. Cincinatti (4-2) have been unable to put together a good day on offense against a team with a defense this whole season. I think they'll turn it around this game and put together four quarters of efficient offense. Cincinatti has the right kind of defense to cause trouble for Michael Vick and the rest of Atlanta on that side of the ball. Excellent, quick corners and linebackers who can tackle ought to be able to prevent Vick from being able to beat them in the air or on the ground, so as long as Carson Palmer makes plays for them against the excellent Falcons defense, the Bengals will prevail, and by more than a field goal. Cincinatti -3.5

St. Louis at San Diego (-10)
St. Louis (4-2) are easily the worst 4-2 team in the league. They managed to lose to San Francisco, and the teams they've beaten aren't good teams (other than Seattle, maybe). San Diego (4-2) on the other hand looks like one of the better teams in the league, but they lost a close game against a struggling Kansas City team and Philip Rivers is still very, very young. Oddsmakers would seem to be showing the Chargers respect they haven't earned and the Rams contempt they don't deserve by making this a 10 point spread. St. Louis' big disadvantage in this contest is that they won't be able to stop the run, and have had trouble with running backs all season (121 yds against average, not good). San Diego will prevail, the question regarding this pick is, will they run up the score and beat the ridiculous spread? {{{XWL shakes Magic Eight Ball, You May Rely on It}}} That settles it, then. San Diego -10

Indianapolis at Denver (-2.5)
Denver (5-1) are favored at home against undefeated Indianapolis (6-0). Let's keep this simple, despite their record, Denver's offense has been terrible, they've yet to score more than 20 points this season, Indianapolis has failed to score less than 20 points only once. That settles it then, one team will score more than 20 the other will score less than 20, that makes picking this game pretty easy (especially since Denver is favored). Denver has a great defense, and the Colts did look vulnerable in one game this season (the 14-13 embarrassment versus Tennessee), but they'll be up for this game and take the Mile High crowd out of the game early. Indianapolis +2.5

New England at Minnesota (+2)
Think of this as bonus coverage. When thinking of limiting this week's picks to teams that are both 4-2 or better, it didn't occur to me that this game would be included. Minnesota (4-2) has Brad Johnson at QB, they can't be 4-2, right? New England (5-1) does it again and again. They bore me. This game bores me. I'll just go with conventional wisdom and not pick against Belichick. New England -2

There you have it, another week of potential humiliation. This week I'll be 5-0 for sure, though (maybe not for sure, not like I'd put money on any of these picks).

Also, I can't believe someone did a Google Blogsearch for immodest proposal football pick week 8 yesterday, I guess I have one fan in San Francisco who couldn't wait to see my picks. This is for you buddy!

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