02 February 2008

Unenthusiastic Superbowl XLII Picks

It's the New England Patriots versus the New York Giants, and I just don't care. It's going to be a blowout, I think, but maybe not.

Here's what I think will happen, all the great progress that Eli Manning seems to have made during the playoffs will evaporate, along with all the problems the Patriots seem to be having.

Both teams will play more like they did at the beginning of the season than how they played two weeks ago. That means, a big offensive effort from the Pats, while the Giants are just plain offensive.

52-17 is my prediction, and those 17 points will be garbage time scores. I expect New England to be up 28-0 or 28-3 at halftime and add another two TDs in the 3rd quarter. This won't be pretty, should give everyone plenty of time to pay close attention to the commercials.

So, given that, how would I bet, if I were the betting type? I'm going with a hypothetical $1000 budget again, like last year, hopefully the results will be better. All lines from Gamblers Palace as of 8pm PST 02/02/08.

Patriots Margin of Victory +22 points or more, betting $600 at +280.
This is the main bet, the one that would pay for the trip to Vegas, if I had made a trip to Vegas (or make the trip a budget buster). I'm surprised they're giving as good of odds on this as they are. If this hits, this bet would collect $2280 bucks, that'd make for a nice weekend.

For the rest of the budget, the bets would be as follows
Total points scored by both teams 57-63, $100 at +180 (to collect $280)
Total points scored by both teams 64-70, $100 at +470 (to collect $570)
Total points scored by both teams 71-77, $100 at +1050 (to collect $1150)
Total points scored by both teams 78 or more, $100 at +940 (to collect $1040)

If either of the last two hit, along with a big Patriots blowout victory, then I'd be very displeased that I didn't actually book these bets, so hopefully I'm completely wrong about all this, or else I'll be mumbling to myself tomorrow night about the $3,000+ I didn't win. If somehow the game ends up with a very high total but the Pats win close, or even lose, then I'd about break even. If it's a low scoring contest, and the Pats win close, or lose, then I'd be very happy that I didn't risk real money on these foolish bets.

That's why I love the internet, I can risk humiliation instead of cash, the supply of humiliation is endless, cash on the other hand is quite finite.

2 comments:

Icepick said...

Here's what I think will happen, all the great progress that Eli Manning seems to have made during the playoffs will evaporate, along with all the problems the Patriots seem to be having.

Both teams will play more like they did at the beginning of the season than how they played two weeks ago. That means, a big offensive effort from the Pats, while the Giants are just plain offensive.


Oops!

Pastor_Jeff said...

Hey, be glad you were wrong (I was, too). It was a great game, and the despised Belichick had to storm off the field before the final gun.