12 September 2007

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week Two)

My cumulative season total is a whopping 2-2-1, let's see if I can improve on that this week. Once again, I'm picking five games, all being broadcast in Los Angeles. Our lack of a home team leads to some odd choices by CBS and FOX when they have the choice. CBS seems to be under the mistaken impression that there are still plenty of Raiders fans in Los Angeles. I don't expect any of these games to be particularly watchable. I think every losing team will lose by double digits. Last week, if I had gone with the home team each time, I would have been 4-0-1, but I didn't, and this week I'm prepared to make the same mistake and pick four out of five road teams to prevail. On to the picks (using the lines from ESPN as of Wednesday, which they need to fix and tell the person doing their lines that the home team isn't always the favorite).

Indianapolis at Tennessee Indianapolis -7
The Colts looked unbeatable at home last week against what I still believe is a pretty good Saints team. They're on the road this week, and are big favorites. Last year, they were terrible against the spread in these situations, and split the season series against the Titans, barely winning the first time (as 17 point favorites at home) and losing as 7 point favorites on the road late in the season. The Titans have a solid defense, but they won't hold the Colts offense under 20 points like they did in both games last season. The Colts will be rolling again this week putting up a bunch of points. The Titans will find a way to score as well, but I expect this to be a 38-24 type contest, with Indy simply being too much for Tennessee to handle.

Oakland at Denver Oakland +10
When the Raiders play the Broncos, it's always a battle. The Raiders always manage to play better than their current talent level, and it doesn't matter if it's on the road or at home. Getting Denver in September is a big plus for the Raiders, not having to deal with the snow. Oakland seemed surprisingly competent on offense last week, and were let down by their defense in the 4th quarter. That won't happen this week. The Raiders have one of the best defenses in the league, and they will stymie Denver's somewhat woeful offense. This will be low scoring, but I expect Oakland to eek out a 20-10 victory, and even if they lose, they won't lose by more than a touchdown, so I'm playing the spread on this one.

Dallas at Miami Dallas -3.5
I have no idea why Fox is showing this game over a more interesting contest like Seattle at Arizona. Dallas isn't "America's Team" anymore, and the Dolphins look like they're going to have another mediocre to terrible season. These teams haven't met since 2003, but based on last week, Dallas looks to be playing better at the moment. The Dolphins are 3.5 point underdogs at home, but I think they'll manage to lose by much more than that. Dallas' offense looks pretty good, and ought to be able to roll up the points on a 'Phins squad that will get demoralized early, and never recover. Half time score 24-3, final 38-10, this won't be close.

San Diego at New England San Diego +3.5
New England looked great last week, but they were playing the New York Jets, so that shouldn't really count. San Diego looked so-so, but they were playing against a monster defense in Chicago. The Pats have a very good defense, but they're no Chicago. LaDanian Tomlinson will have a monster game in this contest, rolling up better than 200 yards combined rushing and receiving. San Diego's defense will screw up the Pats timing on offense and cause them to make some uncharacteristic mistakes, I expect at least 3 turnovers from the normally solid Pats offense. San Diego will not only win, but embarrass New England (but New England may not lose another game this season, and they'll use this loss as motivation when these teams inevitably face each other in the AFC Championship game).

Washington at Philadelphia Philadelphia -6.5
The Eagles looked terrible against Green Bay last week, losing a low scoring game in OT. Didn't see the 'Skins win their low scoring OT game last week, but I don't see how they'll have much of a season this year. I think Philadelphia's offense will get better, while they're defense will play another solid game. They put an unbelievable amount of pressure on Favre last week, and rather than making spectacular plays as Favre did, Washington's young QB, Campbell, will make mistakes. Philadephia's defense will score more points than Washington's offense in this one. They may even score more points than their own offense. I expect a 24-3 drubbing of the 'Skins in this one.


Icepick said...

I have no idea why Fox is showing this game over a more interesting contest like Seattle at Arizona.

For the record, we didn't get the Dolphins game in Orlando. Instead we got stuck with Chicago and KC. This is why I hate the Jaguars. After being in the Dolphins media market for three decades, along came the Jags and Orlando was mandated as Jags territory by the NFL. So now those of us who grew up watching the Dolphins play every week never get to see them these days.

I don't know why you think the Jags will be moving to LA (their ticket sales are comparable to Indy's), but you're welcome to them.

XWL said...

LA Observed had this article.

They are one of the least valuable NFL franchises according to this Forbes rundown (29 of 32).

NFL owners (like the Jaguars owner is doing now to get tons of local money for improvements to his 12 year old stadium) use the threat of moving to LA to extract concessions from all the other markets (especially the small ones like Jacksonville).

Also, most people in LA already have allegiances to other teams. We are the #2 media market in the nation, and we are the #1 market for watching the NFL (maybe cause the NY teams suck), but that doesn't automatically translate into support for a local team if they don't perform well on the field.

SippicanCottage said...