14 August 2007

Just Hand Them the Trophy . . .

. . . all twelve ESPN experts polled pick USC to win it all this NCAA football season. Guess there's no reason to bother playing the games.

At VegasInsider they show the Trojans as favorites in the betting line for the BCS title game at 3 to 1. Michigan is at 6 to 1, West Virginia is at 7 to 1 and Florida is at 8 to 1.

There's less certainty about the NFL. New England are strong favorites, but not like USC. In the NFL you have the current odds at New England 5 to 1, Indianapolis 11 to 2, San Diego Chargers at 6 to 1, and Chicago Bears at 8 to 1.

Hard to argue with those teams as being the most likely to win the Superbowl, though I do think if Reggie Bush stays healthy, and stays spectacular, than New Orleans will make it to the Superbowl, and even if they'll be facing a superior AFC team, anything can happen in one game.

I'm a little perplexed at how lowly rated the Tennesse Titans are. They're solid on both sides of the ball, and Vince Young might have a monster year. Maybe you can explain their 75 to 1 odds on the overall strength of the AFC and fear that Vince Young will be struck down by the "Madden Curse".

And yes, this means you'll get to laugh at my NFL picks again this year, I won't a little thing like being mostly wrong stop me from making picks again.

(and despite all their fire power, I'm still not sold on the Pats)

UPDATE: Icepick asks in the comments what last year's picks were. Here they are. Not a single one had Florida even winning the SEC (all 12 had Auburn), let alone being in the BCS title game. There was no strong consensus as to which teams would be in the BCS championship last year. Lots of Ohio State support, either as champ or runner-up, though. Inexplicably Notre Dame was in the mix, too. Eleven of the twelve are the same ESPN 'experts', too, so it is an apples to apples comparison of prognosticators (mostly).

College is inherently less predictable than the pros (even though the teams are less competitively balanced), given that a great team can lose any hope at the BCS game if they have just a single bad week. Playoffs would help that situation, the pressure to stay undefeated discourages teams from scheduling against other good teams for their non-conference games. NCAA football is fun to watch, but it could be a lot better.

Now I'm just waiting for Sippican Cottage to chime in with his disapproval and derision at my lack of faith in his Patriots. . .

And as far as this year's USC Trojan's team, it's the deepest one Pete Carroll has had, they've got monster talent at nearly every position, and Booty (heh, heh, he said 'booty') is going to be a very good QB. Given the Trojans have won it all with less talent recently, there's no reason not to expect them to roll through their schedule and defeat whichever team lines up against them in the BCS title game this year.

Given the lack of a pro team, the Trojans are Los Angeles' main football obsession, and the local media has been all over USC already. The Trojans have a bunch of tough games on the road this year (Nebraska, Cal, Oregon, Notre Dame and ASU), but folks are ready to give them the trophy, anyway. 3 to 1 is looking pretty good, if they stay undefeated through the Notre Dame game, expect that number to hover at about 2 to 1 or 3 to 2.

1 comment:

Icepick said...

And how many of those ESPN experts picked UF last year?