This weekend and next are the best weekends of the year. 4 NFL playoff games, win and advance, lose and fume till August.
Vegas is the place to be this weekend (but not for me, this year), between the playoffs and CES, it's a crowded, crazed, mildly debauched slice of heaven.
The lines on this weekends games are out, here are my picks (for entertainment purposes only, PLEASE no wagering based on my recommendations, I wouldn't put my money where my mouth is, nor should you).
I'll keep it simple, Every road team will win this weekend.
Redskins are on a roll and they are going to keep on rolling (at least for one more week). Tampa Bay is a good team, but I think they are going to get controlled on both sides of the ball, and Joe Gibbs is Joe Gibbs, and this is the playoffs. So if I were a betting man, rather than taking the paltry 2.5 points for picking the road dog I'd place a moneyline bet at +115 and count my money on Monday. The over/under is a bit trickier for this game, or any playoff game, as teams get desperate at the end and scores have a way of piling up at the end. I think the over 37 on this game is a good bet though, not a strong belief though, just a hunch.
Jacksonville are big underdogs against defending champion New England. Jacksonville is a better team. It's hard to bet against Belichick (and foolish) but +290 for a team as good as the Jaguars is very hard to pass up. And it's going to be a shoot out, both teams are going to score more than 30 points, I think, so it's going to be way over 37 points.
That's Saturday, now for Sunday. Eli has been amazing and the Giants have been doing just enough each week to give themselves this home game in the playoffs. But, he's not ready, Carolina has an awesome defense and will punish the younger Manning if he holds the ball a fraction too long (which he will). It's going to be close though, so I'd take the 2.5 points and the Panthers and cross my fingers cause the Giants might get lucky again. The line on this is 43.5, but I think defense will decide so I'm guessing under for this battle.
Pittsburgh are road favorites in the playoffs against Carson Palmer and the former Bungles, now Bengals. 3 points are a lot of points to give up when betting for a road team in the playoffs, but usually playoff experience counts for something, and Pittsburgh has far more experience than Cincinnati who may play as if they are happy just to be there. The line has moved to 46 for the over/under so a reasonably high scoring affair is expected, but I think the defenses of both teams will be decisive in this game also, so under 46.
4 games, eight chances to be wrong. To summarize Was +115, over 37; Jax +290, over 37; Car +2.5, under 43.5; Pit -3, under 46.
Now I'll fight the urge to change these details after the fact and see how I do.
One nice thing about being in L.A. is that you can just watch and analyze the games based on the teams and not local loyalties (unlike say in College, where I would have been influenced by all the Trojan hype, and congrats to the Longhorns, great game, great performance by Vince Young, and a well deserved championship).
Sunday Morning UPDATE: I could have been more wrong, but barely. Both games were under and the Jaguar's plane must be stuck in a holding pattern somewhere over Logan Airport cause that team never showed up (maybe they thought their game was on Sunday as an alternate explanation) (After 3 Superbowl victories I still refuse to believe New England are for real, and I have my doubts about the Jordan Era Bulls, too). In the ever hopeful disposition of a gambler, there's always the next games to redeem myself.
Sunday Evening UPDATE: A small measure of redemption indeed. Yes and Yes on Car/Under, Yes and No on Pitts/Under. Now to start thinking about that next glorious week of four meaningful NFL playoff games (will I jump on the NE bandwagon? will I give Chicago any credit? is Seattle for real? has Indy recovered from their emotional rollercoaster? stay tuned)
05 January 2006
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5 comments:
Eli has been amazing....
Eli (QB rating = 75.9) has been amazing? Well, not as amazing as TRENT DILFER (76.9), who has a better QB rating for the year. Or Jake Delhomme (88.1) who is really tearing it up, comparatively. David Carr has a better rating (77.2) and he spends most of every game on his back!
And if you want to talk absolute numbers, Kerry Collins' numbers were almost identical playing for the horrible Oakland Raiders! And with five fewer interceptions, Kerry had a better QB rating (77.3) as well.
And let's not forget that Eli is tied for the second most interceptions in the league.
But what REALLY puts things in perspective is Eli's completion percentage: a specTACular 52.8%. Compare this to Ron Mexico's 55.3%, or Aaron Brooks' 55.7% or, wait for it, this is the coup de grace, JOEY HARRINGTON'S 57.0%! Only three regular players had worse completion percentages this year: Gus Frerotte, Kyle Orton, and J. P. Losman.
That's right, a bunch of coach killers had better stats. (Losman even managed to kill off the front office in Buffalo!) If Eli played anywhere else, the media would be asking why he wasn't getting benched in favor of his backup. The Giants have won in spite of Eli, not because of him. DON'T BUY THE HYPE!
Well, I would keep up the vivisection, but Miami Vice is starting, so I've got to go.
[A]nd the Giants have been doing just enough each week to give themselves this home game in the playoffs.
Well, I'm sure the NFL would have given them the home game even if they hadn't "earned" it. After all, the Giants are the only team in NFL history to get 9 regular season home games. Hell, the NFL will give the Giants a home game against Seattle next weekend even if the Giants lose.
Your bullet points about Manning the Younger are well taken.
I was being lazy and repeating received wisdom.
I was almost journalistic in my laziness.
My apologies.
But in my defense, He has done well for a 2nd year high draft pick QB (they usually don't have winning seasons this early, even with a Tiki Barber sharing the backfield, lower draft pick QBs win playoff games and Super Bowls right out of the box for some reason, what's up with that?)
You've always got to question received wisdom on NYC sports teams. But apology accepted!
I've got a suspicion on the lower v. high QB draft picks. (I mean, rather than just simply that the scouting sucks.)
I've been thinking about Vince Young a lot since the Rose Bowl. Watching the game I thought, "Why isn't this guy the consensus Number 1 pick in the NFL draft?"
That has led me to ponder whether or not VY can really be a great NFL QB. Personally, I think he does have all he requisite traits, even if his throwing motion is a little funky. And his poise the other night was remarkable. (In fact, I just remarked on his poise.)
BUT! VY was also the most dominant physical presence on the field when his team had the ball. There wasn't even anyone close to his level. But what happens when he is up against a fair NFL defense? ALL of the athletes he will be facing will be tougher than almost anyone he would play against in college. And when he facing a team like the Bucs or the Bears? There will be several athletes on the defensive side of the ball almost as good as he is, if not better, from an athletic point of view.
Will he be able to keep his poise in when he ISN'T far and away the best athlete on the field?
A lot of the QBs that go at the very top of the draft have dominated in college because of their superior athletic ability. But take a guy like Brady, who was a good QB at a good school.
Brady probably wasn't the best athlete on his own team. (I'm not going to go back and check this, but maybe someone else knows more than I do and can tell me I'm full of it.) So he never had the luxury of being able to take over a game solely by his athletic ability. He had to make correct decisions under fire when he wasn't the best guy out there.
And that, of course, is what playing QB in the NFL is all about. Even a lot of the great QBs in the NFL haven't been dominate athletic presences. As an athlete, would you rather have Jim Kelly or Thurman Thomas? Dan Marino or Michael Clayton? Johnny U. or Don Ameche?
All of these QBs had physical gifts that most of us can't imagine, but none of those guys would have been in the NFL if they weren't QBs. Those guys weren't going the Matt Jones route. But all of them were superior decision makers, especially under duress.
Even the extremely talented QBs who are great (think Elway as the best example), were great decision makers under fire. And those incredibly athletic QBs who had great athletic ability but not great decision making ability (think R. Cunningham, who was good but not great) just weren't contenders for Canton.
So I think those QBs who aren't at the top of the draft have already had to hone their decision making skills to survive in college, so that's not something they have to learn for the first time in the pros. As long as they have enough physical talent, they'll do well once they adjust to the speed of the pro game. But try learning to make tough decisions for the first time when you're 23 and facing some demonic NFL defenses week after week. That is one hard-assed task master, unforgiving and brutal.
Verification Word: wbbyway
Pick, that is a fabulous piece on QB's, mind if I quote extensively from in? (Am working on a post as to why I think VY will not be a good NFL QB. Here's a hint, think of those USC tacklers bouncing off. Now replace random SoCal wussboy with Ed Reed/Brian Urlacher...)
As to Eli, come on X, you didn't think we'd be able to go a week without seeing the "Manning Family in Playoff Distress" Face, did you?
Pooh, as long as attribution is given, I don't mind a bit. And I love your Manning comment!
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