13 January 2006

Football Picks

I was going to post my picks for the second week of the NFL playoffs with lots of ramblinations and possibly a few Maddenisms, but instead I will offer my guesses against the line and compare them to what Sam Farmer prognosticates in the L.A. Times.

Once again lines pulled from FoxSports (Expert Odds line).

Saturday's Games

Washington 41.5 +340
Seattle -10.0 -440

What Sam says
Prediction: Seattle 20, Washington 10.
What I say
Seattle had trouble with Washington first time around (and lost) but that was awhile ago, and Seattle looks like a much better team (GB loss can be ignored). Holmgren has had a week off to prepare, but Gibbs will get his players geeked up, and the Redskins defense is capabable of being pretty scary and hit with a viciousness that will mess with the timing of Holmgren's West Coast offense. I smell an upset here, and a low score, so I'd take the moneyline of +340 on Washington along with the Under 41.5 as I don't think either team will score more than 20 points.

RESULTS Seattle 20, Washington 10: SAM was spot on (not me, sorry Icepick, the top line were Sam Farmer's of the L.A. Times predictions not mine, apologies if that wasn't clear, I figured a compare/contrast format between myself and a paid professional might be illustrative. I think predicting actual final scores is a mug's game), but the game's outcome hinged on two plays in my opinion. The missed interception for a touchdown that fell through Rogers hands. And the third down 32 yard burst late in the game given up to the Seattle FB (FB!!) that lead to the go ahead FG. Otherwise another 20-17 OT Redskins victory was possible. But at least I got the O/U correct.

New England 44.5 +130
Denver -3.0 -150
What Sam says
Prediction: Denver 24, New England 21.
What I say
Another rematch (every game played this week is a rematch) and Denver built a big lead against the banged up Pats, and then almost let it slip away. The Pats aren't so banged up anymore, and I was burned by not believing in the Pats last week, so despite all the good evidence to the contrary, I think the Pats will win and hand Denver their first defeat on this field. So another moneyline bet of +130 on New England coupled with an Over 44.5 bet. This will be a high scoring affair, with the winner in the 30s and the loser in the 20s.

RESULTS Denver 27, New England 13. SAM got the results right, but not the score or the spread. Better than I did I was wrong on both counts, and I missed on the O/U. Maybe in the future I should avoid prognosticating results of Saturday contests. Had, too early of a morning today so ended up sleeping through the second half of this contest, judging from the recaps, didn't miss much. Here's to a better Sunday.

Pittsburgh 47.5 +340
Indy -9.5 -440
What Sam says
Prediction: Indianapolis 21, Pittsburgh 17.
What I say
Indy won a close one last time. It won't be close this time. Indy will roll all over Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh was lucky to get a great performance out of Bettis and have a freak injury take out Cincy's QB on his only pass (for a 66 yard TD). Also, the Colts have had time to channel all of the emotional turmoil that has swirled around the team and their coach and I think will be focused with the belief that they have something to prove. Expect Indy to roll to a score in the 40s or 50s. I'd take Indy -9.5 and Over 47.5 without reservations.

RESULTS Pittsburgh 21, Indianapolis 18. I don't think many people expected what happened was what was going to happen. I was wrong, very wrong. The Colts came out tight, Peyton looked more like Eli than Peyton. Did Edgerrin James even play? Marvin Harrison? Pittsburgh dominated most of the game and still was a first ever Vanderjagt miss in Indy from OT. (Boy did Bettis ever look relieved, he was very close to being one of the biggest goats in NFL history)

Carolina 30.5 +120
Chicago -3.0 -140
What Sam says
Prediction: Carolina 10, Chicago 7.
What I say
Chicago has the bye in their favor, and the weather is according to Weather Channel cool with significant winds ( From the North Northwest at 17 gusting to 31 mph). I know those numbers aren't extreme by Chicago standards, but steady breezes at 17 coupled with low temps, coupled with a late start all suggest to me that passing and kicking will be difficult so ball control and the running game will be very important. In both of these areas I think the Carolina running game presents more problems for the Chicago defense to handle than the Chicago running game presents the Carolina defense. Both teams have monster defenses (the only one team are Monsters of the Midway), so I think the difference maker in the game will be the running games and special teams, and I'd say the edge in both goes to the Panthers. So I'd take another moneyline bet of Carolina +120 and even though the line is about as low as I've ever seen it, I'd still have to bet under 30.5 cause one of these teams might be shutout, and even the winning team won't score more than 2 touchdowns.

Results Carolina 29, Chicago 21. Picked the team (as did Sam) but didn't get the O/U. If anyone said this would be the only contest of the weekend to total 50 or more points, I'd have said they were sharing pipes with Marion Barry. So in total I was right on one contest (Carolina) and one O/U (Sea/Was) otherwise a miserable week of prognostication. Maybe there IS a reason Sam Farmer gets paid to say stuff about football whereas I just through things (soft nerf-like things) at the TV when a team I favor make a boneheaded play.

Thems is my picks I'm sticking to them. Updates with results will follow (along with likely humiliation).


Icepick said...

Wow, perfect call on the Seattle game! Take a bow!

Icepick said...

Oops, sorry for the misunderstanding. I just skimmed it, because all the gambling jargon makes my eyes roll up into my head.