Looks like the Dow is getting a solid head start on making good on my prediction for 7500 by December 5th.
Woohoo, Obama Bounce!!!
Congratulations.
Let's see what happens when he starts making announcements about who will be in his cabinet.
Showing posts with label Stock Market Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock Market Predictions. Show all posts
05 November 2008
11 October 2008
The Difference Between the Two Candidates . . .
If what is actually happening in the markets is that traders are 'pricing in' an Obama victory as it seems more certain, then the difference between the expected Obama victory and an unexpected McCain victory might look something like this when the markets close on December 5th about a month after the election:
President Elect Obama
DJIA 7500
President Elect McCain
DJIA 11,000
The market isn't the entire economy (despite the way many are acting in the media at the moment), and an Obama victory beating down the market isn't all about Obama, but has to do with the fear in some circles that a unified Executive and Legislative branch (and even worse, a fillibuster proof Senate) would be compelled to 'do something' to the economy (and I do mean 'to' with all the associated connotations of that preposition, and not 'with', or 'for').
McCain would also be compelled to 'do something', but luckily in the McCain scenario, he'd be opposed rather than egged along by the Legislative branch.
President Elect Obama
DJIA 7500
President Elect McCain
DJIA 11,000
The market isn't the entire economy (despite the way many are acting in the media at the moment), and an Obama victory beating down the market isn't all about Obama, but has to do with the fear in some circles that a unified Executive and Legislative branch (and even worse, a fillibuster proof Senate) would be compelled to 'do something' to the economy (and I do mean 'to' with all the associated connotations of that preposition, and not 'with', or 'for').
McCain would also be compelled to 'do something', but luckily in the McCain scenario, he'd be opposed rather than egged along by the Legislative branch.
23 January 2008
I Was Looking Pretty Stupid Earlier Today . . .
. . . with the market down 300 points early today (after closing down more than 100 points yesterday), my prediction of 12,500 for Friday didn't look too smart.
But now I feel like a market genius after a 600 point intra-day swing (12,500 by close Friday still might not happen, though).
That's why you don't pay attention to the daily goings on of Wall Street, it's a long term market, timing is for crazy people.
Just ask all the people who thought they'd get rich flipping houses how well the strategy of trying to use a long term investment instrument (in the case of flippers, real estate) into a means of short term profits.
But now I feel like a market genius after a 600 point intra-day swing (12,500 by close Friday still might not happen, though).
That's why you don't pay attention to the daily goings on of Wall Street, it's a long term market, timing is for crazy people.
Just ask all the people who thought they'd get rich flipping houses how well the strategy of trying to use a long term investment instrument (in the case of flippers, real estate) into a means of short term profits.
22 January 2008
Market Predictions
I meant to post this last night after reading all the doom and gloom stories about the big downturns in Europe and Asia, but here's my prediction for Dow Jones, it'll close above 12,500 as of close this Friday.
On top of that, by the end of February it will be above 13,500 again.
A lot of stocks are getting caught up in the downward frenzy, even when there's no reason for people to be down on a particular company. That means there are big buying opportunities, and there are enough buyers who will see bargains and take them. Some stocks will lose big over the next 6 weeks (based on the fundamentals of that company's business situation), but many more stocks will go up by 10% or more.
After plunging 400 points at opening, looks like the market may close about even or maybe even higher by the end of the day (there's even a chance for triple digit gains if the current trend continues). Best to ignore days like this and remember that the market is best thought of as a 20 year play, rather than short term gamble. If you want to lose your money on short term risks, then nothing beats sports betting, trying to time the market can only lead to trouble.
On top of that, by the end of February it will be above 13,500 again.
A lot of stocks are getting caught up in the downward frenzy, even when there's no reason for people to be down on a particular company. That means there are big buying opportunities, and there are enough buyers who will see bargains and take them. Some stocks will lose big over the next 6 weeks (based on the fundamentals of that company's business situation), but many more stocks will go up by 10% or more.
After plunging 400 points at opening, looks like the market may close about even or maybe even higher by the end of the day (there's even a chance for triple digit gains if the current trend continues). Best to ignore days like this and remember that the market is best thought of as a 20 year play, rather than short term gamble. If you want to lose your money on short term risks, then nothing beats sports betting, trying to time the market can only lead to trouble.
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