20 September 2006

Weekly NFL Related Humiliation (Week THREE)

Time to make the picks. This week I'm going 4-0.

I'm using the usual Vegas.com MGM/Mirage odds (current as of 12:21am 09/20/2006)

Closer match-ups this week according to the oddsmakers, only one double digit spread (TEN at MIA). A couple of games that look like fun on paper. Rather than wimping out and picking four obvious blowouts, I'm going to make picks in four games that matter.

Cincinatti at Pittsburgh (-1.5)
Will Pittsburgh bounce back from the Monday night shutout? Will the Bengals avenge Carson Palmer's getting knocked out of the playoffs last year? Tough call, the Steelers do awfully well at home, but Palmer is one of the few QBs who has the Steeler's blitzes and schemes figured out, plus he'll be real motivated (or he'll have a case of happy feet because of bad memories). I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Bengals will pull of the mild upset, and possibly win big.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7)
Game of the week, maybe one of the biggest games of the season, even though it's only week 3. Jacksonville's defense can be pretty scary, but Indy's offense is even scarier. Both these are elite teams, possibly the two best teams in the league right now. That Indianapolis is a 7 point favorite anyway is a testament to just how good they look. The Colts will do it. Peyton Manning is a machine right now, and their defense is still very solid. Even though they all look great still, the window is closing on this team and I think they are playing with urgency. Anything less than a Superbowl ring will be considered a failure given their talent. They'll make this a statement game and probably beat up Jacksonville and win by 3 touchdowns, not just one.

NYGiants at Seattle (-4)
Another good game, hopefully. Seattle still looks kind of shakey, and NYGiants are very lucky to be 1-1 instead of 0-2. I just don't see the Giants travelling well, and Seattle will put on a better show for the home fans than they did last week (even though they did beat the Cardinals). Their opportunistic defense will frustrate Manning the younger and manage to generate at least 3 takeaways. The turnovers will be the difference, as their offense has been unimpressive so far. Seattle will win, and cover the spread. No late game heroics/total collapse by the home team this week.

Atlanta at New Orleans (+3.5)
Show of hands of folks who thought these two teams would be 2-0 going into this game. OK, show of hands of folks who expected this game to be played in the Superdome this time last year. That's what I thought, I didn't see too many hands shoot up on either, and the folks who did raise their hand, I suspect they are liars. Atlanta looks good, or at least that's what I've been told as Fox hasn't shown either of their games in Los Angeles. Did get to see the Saints play, though, and I was impressed with them. Also, the emotion on the team and the desire to win for the city will be strong. Plus Reggie Bush as a receiver has had an impact already, Drew Breese is for real, and Duece McAllister looks like one of the best running backs in the league. Plus their defense is decent. And I know I've been told otherwise, but I'm still not buying what Michael Vick is selling. Defensive coordinators will figure him out, and bottle him and Warrick Dunn up, eventually. QBs have to be able to complete passes to be effective. You won't be able to convince me otherwise, at least not until he's hoisting that Vince Lombardi trophy in Miami in February 2007. SO in summary, I'm taking New Orleans and the points, just cause I can't pick favorites for every game, that's not my style.

And as a point of comparison, here's the link to Jimmy Kimmel's cousin Sal's picks for week three (the fact that we mostly disagree fills me with confidence).

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