Oscar Predictions for 2007

It may seem a bit early for predicting anything regarding the Academy Awards, afterall, the usual Oscar-bait pictures aren't released till November or December in LA/NY (last year's winner being an exception).

I'm not predicting which movies will be nominated, but I will predict that the total grosses for the three Best Animated Film of the Year nominees will be at least be equal to, and probably double the total grosses for the five Best Picture nominees.

I think 2007 will be another year where Hollywood chooses to recognize pictures that not that many people went to see, except for in the animated category. The proliferation of kiddie animated CGI pictures, and the relative high quality of a few of them, Cars (definitely, at least I enjoyed it), Monster House (probably, the reviews are mostly positive, I'll be seeing it this week anyway) and Happy Feet (from the director of MAD MAX!?, hopefully, the trailer, was really, really good) means that they should all be $200M+ pictures and are the most likely animated nominees this year. I doubt any of the Best Picture bait pictures that end up being nominated this year will gross better than $100M (none of last year's nominees cracked $100M domestic, even including post-Oscar grosses).

The disparity between what folks like and what critics like continues to widen. Seems like the only area where critics and audience tastes overlap occaisonally are with the kiddie aimed CGI animated pictures.

(A Scanner Darkly, could screw up these speculations all together, it could be considered an animated feature, it has a mixed critical reception, but those that like it really like it (and it features the Althouse Stamp of Approval), and enough Academy voters might be sick of all the CGI kiddie pictures in that category that they might get a bit subversive and go in an unexpected direction (and if Warner Independent have a brain in their collective head, they'll pay for an Oscar push in the animated feature category, it would be the most cost effective way to add a 'Academy Award Nominee (or Winner) sticker to the DVD release))

(if I'm right, I'll point to my prescience months from now, and If I'm wrong, I'll just pretend that I never wrote this, and forget to mention it after the nominees are announced in January)