A Conclusion in Search of a Statistic

Stuff like this bothers me.

This headline and link from Drudge "Fewer International Tourist coming to USA. . ." seems a bit suspect.

The article says that US market share of the tourist market has declined by 35% from 1992 to 2004, tut-tuts about it, and insinuates that it's the increased security measures that are frightening away foreign travellers.

While the declining market share over that period is probably a valid statistic, but given that fact, the conclusion that fewer tourists are visiting the USA doesn't automatically follow, and given that the MSNBC article doesn't actually give you any graphs, charts, or links to the abstract from where they pull these numbers, there's no way to know whats really going on.

In 1992 it was only 3 years since two major world events, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the massacre at Tiananmen Square (sorry my Red Chinese fans, now you won't be able to link this site). As both those events recede in time, major swathes of the world would have become more and more attractive to visit. World travellers as an aggregrate group could therefore be going to USA more, and going everywhere else by an even larger margin so that the USA could lose a third of its overall market share, and still have a robust travel and tourism trade.

Here in Santa Monica I see tourists from everywhere all throughout the year, so locally the market is stronger than ever.

When the MSNBC article states that the US tourist industry is behind by 35% compared to 1992 they don't mention that the same source stated that in 2002 in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 the industry was down 42% compared to 1992, so that's a significant improvement in 2 years, and other indicators suggest that the improvement has continued through 2006.

These numbers from the American Hotel and Lodging Association using US Dept of Commerce statistics paint a picture of a robust domestic tourism industry that attracts international tourists who enjoy dropping loads of cash here in the USA

INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL**

• The United States receives a larger share of world international tourism receipts than any other country in the world. In 2004, spending on travel totaled $75 billion, excluding passenger fares. The U.S. share of world tourism receipts increased from 16 percent in 1998 to 16.4 percent in 1999 to 17.4 percent in 2000. However, in 2001, the U.S. market share registered a dramatic decline to 15.6 percent, a decline in 2002 to 14.1 percent, and another marked decline in 2003 to 12.3 percent. In 2004, the U.S. share again declined slightly to 12 percent.
• The top 10 countries in terms of U.S. arrivals for 2004 were Canada (13.8 million), Mexico (11.9 million), the United Kingdom (4.3 million), Japan (3.7 million), Germany (1.3 million), France (775,000), South Korea (627,000), Australia (520,000), Italy (471,000), and the Netherlands (425,000). All top 10 markets registered growth in arrivals for the year when compared with 2003.
• For the first time since 1992, the United States saw the first double-digit growth in international visitation in 2004. Mexico, India, and Ireland set new records for arrivals. The fastest growth registered among the top 20 markets came from Ireland (up 60%), the People’s Republic of China (up 29%), Australia (up 28%), India (up 25%), and Sweden (up 20%).
• In 2004, 46.1 million international* travelers visited the United States, a 12 percent increase in travel from 2003. Overseas** arrivals in 2004 increased by 13 percent to 20.3 million. Canadian arrivals increased by 9 percent in 2004 to 13.9 million. Mexican arrivals increased by 13 percent to 11.9 million.
• The impact of international travelers on the hotel industry is considerable. In 2004, 16 million overseas travelers stayed in a hotel/motel. The average length of stay was 7.5 nights, with 1.7 people in the travel party. The main purposes of trips for overseas travelers who stayed in hotels and motels were leisure, recreation, and holiday at 55 percent, and business at 24 percent. These mobile travelers visited 1.6 states while in the country. To move about the United States they took taxis and limousines (47%) and rented cars (33%).
• Figures for 2004 reveal that international visitor spending in the United States increased by 17 percent, resulting in $93.3 billion in total travel receipts. American spending was a record $89.3 billion (a increase of 14%) outside the United States. The trade surplus in 2004 was $4 million, an increase of 144 percent from 2003.

*International includes Canada, Mexico, and overseas.
**Overseas excludes Canada and Mexico.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries